Large
discrepancy in starting pitching and bullpen. Cubs' BP is completely
depleted with Marmol most likely being unavailable after their 13 inning
marathon last night. White Sox used a lot of their relievers as well
in Colorado but they're in a better shape. I don't see Wells lasting
past the 6th inning in this one. Can Dunn do anything besides ground
out into DP's? Ozzie, it's time to send him to the minors to work on
his 'swing'. The Windy City Bombers take this first one! #2: UNDER 9 STL/TAM +106
My
model has this one at 7 so we'll need 10 runs scored to lose this one.
Davis never faced the Cards before and Wesbrook is plenty rested in
this one. One of the worst hitters' parks in the league and with solid
UNDER trends here.
See breakdown below for additional analysis.
Good luck!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
2011 MLB Record: 105 - 92 @53%for+2.04 Units
Fri, 07/01
#1: Chicago White Sox -113
Large
discrepancy in starting pitching and bullpen. Cubs' BP is completely
depleted with Marmol most likely being unavailable after their 13 inning
marathon last night. White Sox used a lot of their relievers as well
in Colorado but they're in a better shape. I don't see Wells lasting
past the 6th inning in this one. Can Dunn do anything besides ground
out into DP's? Ozzie, it's time to send him to the minors to work on
his 'swing'. The Windy City Bombers take this first one! #2: UNDER 9 STL/TAM +106
My
model has this one at 7 so we'll need 10 runs scored to lose this one.
Davis never faced the Cards before and Wesbrook is plenty rested in
this one. One of the worst hitters' parks in the league and with solid
UNDER trends here.
See breakdown below for additional analysis.
Good luck!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
Pittsburgh Pirates 41-39 (51%) @ Washington Nationals 40-41 (49%)
C.
Morton, starting for Pittsburgh Pirates, has a FIP of 3.41 (#52 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.76 (#80 in MLB), and tERA of 4.16 (#94 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .322, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.36. He has a K/BB ratio of
1.43, with a WHIP of 1.52, and opponent BA of .279. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 62%, FB%: 17% for a 3.59 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 4%.
T. Gorzelanny, starting for Washington
Nationals, has a FIP of 4.83 (#169 in MLB), xFIP of 4.18 (#136 in MLB),
and tERA of 4.44 (#120 in MLB), with a BABIP of .273, LOB% of 79%, and
E-F of -0.65. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.55, with a WHIP of 1.3, and
opponent BA of .247. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 14%, GB%:
34%, FB%: 52% for a 0.65 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 12%.
Pittsburgh
Pirates have the #15 bullpen, #25 offense, and are rated #8 in
fielding. They have a road record of 22-19 (54%), ranked #6 in MLB and
have Won 1 in a row.
Washington Nationals have the #17 bullpen,
#24 offense, and are rated #17 in fielding. They have a home record of
22-13 (63%), ranked #5 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.
Pirates are 0-5 last 5 in Washiington. Nats are 7-2 after 3+ consecutive losses and 8-3 with a day off.
Philadelphia Phillies 51-31 (62%) @ Toronto Blue Jays 40-42 (49%)
K.
Kendrick, starting for Philadelphia Phillies, has a FIP of 4.55 (#156
in MLB), xFIP of 3.54 (#51 in MLB), and tERA of 5.33 (#176 in MLB), with
a BABIP of .27, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.64. He has a K/BB ratio of
4, with a WHIP of 1.17, and opponent BA of .267. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 35% for a 1.35 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 7%.
R. Romero, starting for Toronto Blue Jays, has
a FIP of 3.66 (#75 in MLB), xFIP of 3.38 (#32 in MLB), and tERA of 3.72
(#53 in MLB), with a BABIP of .265, LOB% of 82%, and E-F of -0.92. He
has a K/BB ratio of 2.53, with a WHIP of 1.16, and opponent BA of .222.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 15%, GB%: 53%, FB%: 32% for a 1.66
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.
Philadelphia Phillies have the
#20 bullpen, #20 offense, and are rated #22 in fielding. They have a
road record of 19-17 (53%), ranked #9 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
Toronto
Blue Jays have the #14 bullpen, #8 offense, and are rated #22 in
fielding. They have a home record of 18-20 (47%), ranked #23 in MLB and
have Lost 1 in a row.
Philly is 16-6 against lefty starters this
year and 77-47 (62%) over the last couple of seasons. That's
"Yankee-esque"! Blue Jays are 7-7 in ILP, while Phillies are 7-4.
Odds: PHI +141 (41%) TOR -150 (60%) O/U = 8
Lean: OVER =======================================
Chicago White Sox 40-42 (49%) @ Chicago Cubs 34-48 (42%)
E.
Jackson, starting for Chicago White Sox, has a FIP of 3.07 (#28 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.29 (#25 in MLB), and tERA of 4.28 (#107 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .347, LOB% of 72%, and E-F of 1.06. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.53, with a WHIP of 1.48, and opponent BA of .283. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 25%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 30% for a 1.5 GB/FB ratio, and
a HR/FB of 7%.
R. Wells, starting for Chicago Cubs, has a FIP of
5.05 (#180 in MLB), xFIP of 4.5 (#164 in MLB), and tERA of 6.74 (#198
in MLB), with a BABIP of .302, LOB% of 64%, and E-F of 1.2. He has a
K/BB ratio of 1.21, with a WHIP of 1.64, and opponent BA of .278. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 26%, GB%: 41%, FB%: 34% for a 1.21
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 13%.
Chicago White Sox have the #7
bullpen, #18 offense, and are rated #24 in fielding. They have a road
record of 21-22 (49%), ranked #15 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Chicago
Cubs have the #26 bullpen, #14 offense, and are rated #27 in fielding.
They have a home record of 19-24 (44%), ranked #26 in MLB and have Won 2
in a row.
Wells' velocity is down to 87 MPH, from 90 MPH his
first 3 years in the league. Adam Dunn has an OPS of 2.167 in 4 career
AB's off him. With 95+ degrees tomorrow and winds blowing out at 12
MPH, could this be Dunn's breakout party?!? (I of course kid about his
past numbers against Wells being relevant in the future with that
sample-size) Both bullpens are pretty used up, but Cubs even more so.
Pretty sure Marmol will be unavailable in this one pitching in 3 of the
past 4 days (2 consecutive) with 2 innings yesterday.
Odds: CHW -111 (53%) CHC +105 (49%) O/U =
Lean: White Sox and OVER =======================================
San Francisco Giants 46-36 (56%) @ Detroit Tigers 44-38 (54%)
M.
Bumgarner, starting for San Francisco Giants, has a FIP of 2.68 (#11 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.28 (#24 in MLB), and tERA of 3.46 (#37 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .337, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of 1.16. He has a K/BB ratio of
3.08, with a WHIP of 1.36, and opponent BA of .273. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 44%, FB%: 34% for a 1.32 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 4%.
B. Penny, starting for Detroit Tigers, has a
FIP of 4.47 (#149 in MLB), xFIP of 4.39 (#159 in MLB), and tERA of 4.62
(#129 in MLB), with a BABIP of .294, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.18. He
has a K/BB ratio of 1.35, with a WHIP of 1.43, and opponent BA of .28.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 52%, FB%: 32% for a 1.63
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
San Francisco Giants have the #3
bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #10 in fielding. They have a road
record of 22-23 (49%), ranked #14 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Detroit
Tigers have the #28 bullpen, #4 offense, and are rated #7 in fielding.
They have a home record of 26-17 (60%), ranked #7 in MLB and have Won 1
in a row.
Bumgarner never faced Det lineup. Detroit is 16-9 against lefties this year and 71-50 (59%) over the last couple of years.
Odds: SFG +107 (48%) DET -114 (53%) O/U = 8.5
Lean: Giants and UNDER =======================================
J.
Masterson, starting for Cleveland Indians, has a FIP of 3.06 (#27 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.58 (#61 in MLB), and tERA of 3.59 (#43 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .312, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of -0.07. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.14, with a WHIP of 1.32, and opponent BA of .259. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 54%, FB%: 26% for a 2.1 GB/FB ratio, and
a HR/FB of 4%.
B. Arroyo, starting for Cincinnati Reds, has a
FIP of 5.31 (#188 in MLB), xFIP of 4.1 (#122 in MLB), and tERA of 5.81
(#184 in MLB), with a BABIP of .291, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of -0.3. He
has a K/BB ratio of 2.68, with a WHIP of 1.39, and opponent BA of .285.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 40%, FB%: 41% for a 0.96
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 16%.
Cleveland Indians have the #11
bullpen, #15 offense, and are rated #21 in fielding. They have a road
record of 18-23 (44%), ranked #22 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Cincinnati
Reds have the #22 bullpen, #7 offense, and are rated #4 in fielding.
They have a home record of 22-19 (54%), ranked #13 in MLB and have Won 1
in a row.
CLE is 10-6 in ILP, while CIN is 5-10. Arroyo has allowed 21 homeruns this season already, most in the majors.
Pittsburgh Pirates 41-39 (51%) @ Washington Nationals 40-41 (49%)
C.
Morton, starting for Pittsburgh Pirates, has a FIP of 3.41 (#52 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.76 (#80 in MLB), and tERA of 4.16 (#94 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .322, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.36. He has a K/BB ratio of
1.43, with a WHIP of 1.52, and opponent BA of .279. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 62%, FB%: 17% for a 3.59 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 4%.
T. Gorzelanny, starting for Washington
Nationals, has a FIP of 4.83 (#169 in MLB), xFIP of 4.18 (#136 in MLB),
and tERA of 4.44 (#120 in MLB), with a BABIP of .273, LOB% of 79%, and
E-F of -0.65. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.55, with a WHIP of 1.3, and
opponent BA of .247. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 14%, GB%:
34%, FB%: 52% for a 0.65 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 12%.
Pittsburgh
Pirates have the #15 bullpen, #25 offense, and are rated #8 in
fielding. They have a road record of 22-19 (54%), ranked #6 in MLB and
have Won 1 in a row.
Washington Nationals have the #17 bullpen,
#24 offense, and are rated #17 in fielding. They have a home record of
22-13 (63%), ranked #5 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.
Pirates are 0-5 last 5 in Washiington. Nats are 7-2 after 3+ consecutive losses and 8-3 with a day off.
Philadelphia Phillies 51-31 (62%) @ Toronto Blue Jays 40-42 (49%)
K.
Kendrick, starting for Philadelphia Phillies, has a FIP of 4.55 (#156
in MLB), xFIP of 3.54 (#51 in MLB), and tERA of 5.33 (#176 in MLB), with
a BABIP of .27, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.64. He has a K/BB ratio of
4, with a WHIP of 1.17, and opponent BA of .267. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 35% for a 1.35 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 7%.
R. Romero, starting for Toronto Blue Jays, has
a FIP of 3.66 (#75 in MLB), xFIP of 3.38 (#32 in MLB), and tERA of 3.72
(#53 in MLB), with a BABIP of .265, LOB% of 82%, and E-F of -0.92. He
has a K/BB ratio of 2.53, with a WHIP of 1.16, and opponent BA of .222.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 15%, GB%: 53%, FB%: 32% for a 1.66
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.
Philadelphia Phillies have the
#20 bullpen, #20 offense, and are rated #22 in fielding. They have a
road record of 19-17 (53%), ranked #9 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
Toronto
Blue Jays have the #14 bullpen, #8 offense, and are rated #22 in
fielding. They have a home record of 18-20 (47%), ranked #23 in MLB and
have Lost 1 in a row.
Philly is 16-6 against lefty starters this
year and 77-47 (62%) over the last couple of seasons. That's
"Yankee-esque"! Blue Jays are 7-7 in ILP, while Phillies are 7-4.
Odds: PHI +141 (41%) TOR -150 (60%) O/U = 8
Lean: OVER =======================================
Chicago White Sox 40-42 (49%) @ Chicago Cubs 34-48 (42%)
E.
Jackson, starting for Chicago White Sox, has a FIP of 3.07 (#28 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.29 (#25 in MLB), and tERA of 4.28 (#107 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .347, LOB% of 72%, and E-F of 1.06. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.53, with a WHIP of 1.48, and opponent BA of .283. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 25%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 30% for a 1.5 GB/FB ratio, and
a HR/FB of 7%.
R. Wells, starting for Chicago Cubs, has a FIP of
5.05 (#180 in MLB), xFIP of 4.5 (#164 in MLB), and tERA of 6.74 (#198
in MLB), with a BABIP of .302, LOB% of 64%, and E-F of 1.2. He has a
K/BB ratio of 1.21, with a WHIP of 1.64, and opponent BA of .278. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 26%, GB%: 41%, FB%: 34% for a 1.21
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 13%.
Chicago White Sox have the #7
bullpen, #18 offense, and are rated #24 in fielding. They have a road
record of 21-22 (49%), ranked #15 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Chicago
Cubs have the #26 bullpen, #14 offense, and are rated #27 in fielding.
They have a home record of 19-24 (44%), ranked #26 in MLB and have Won 2
in a row.
Wells' velocity is down to 87 MPH, from 90 MPH his
first 3 years in the league. Adam Dunn has an OPS of 2.167 in 4 career
AB's off him. With 95+ degrees tomorrow and winds blowing out at 12
MPH, could this be Dunn's breakout party?!? (I of course kid about his
past numbers against Wells being relevant in the future with that
sample-size) Both bullpens are pretty used up, but Cubs even more so.
Pretty sure Marmol will be unavailable in this one pitching in 3 of the
past 4 days (2 consecutive) with 2 innings yesterday.
Odds: CHW -111 (53%) CHC +105 (49%) O/U =
Lean: White Sox and OVER =======================================
San Francisco Giants 46-36 (56%) @ Detroit Tigers 44-38 (54%)
M.
Bumgarner, starting for San Francisco Giants, has a FIP of 2.68 (#11 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.28 (#24 in MLB), and tERA of 3.46 (#37 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .337, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of 1.16. He has a K/BB ratio of
3.08, with a WHIP of 1.36, and opponent BA of .273. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 44%, FB%: 34% for a 1.32 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 4%.
B. Penny, starting for Detroit Tigers, has a
FIP of 4.47 (#149 in MLB), xFIP of 4.39 (#159 in MLB), and tERA of 4.62
(#129 in MLB), with a BABIP of .294, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.18. He
has a K/BB ratio of 1.35, with a WHIP of 1.43, and opponent BA of .28.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 52%, FB%: 32% for a 1.63
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
San Francisco Giants have the #3
bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #10 in fielding. They have a road
record of 22-23 (49%), ranked #14 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Detroit
Tigers have the #28 bullpen, #4 offense, and are rated #7 in fielding.
They have a home record of 26-17 (60%), ranked #7 in MLB and have Won 1
in a row.
Bumgarner never faced Det lineup. Detroit is 16-9 against lefties this year and 71-50 (59%) over the last couple of years.
Odds: SFG +107 (48%) DET -114 (53%) O/U = 8.5
Lean: Giants and UNDER =======================================
J.
Masterson, starting for Cleveland Indians, has a FIP of 3.06 (#27 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.58 (#61 in MLB), and tERA of 3.59 (#43 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .312, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of -0.07. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.14, with a WHIP of 1.32, and opponent BA of .259. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 54%, FB%: 26% for a 2.1 GB/FB ratio, and
a HR/FB of 4%.
B. Arroyo, starting for Cincinnati Reds, has a
FIP of 5.31 (#188 in MLB), xFIP of 4.1 (#122 in MLB), and tERA of 5.81
(#184 in MLB), with a BABIP of .291, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of -0.3. He
has a K/BB ratio of 2.68, with a WHIP of 1.39, and opponent BA of .285.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 40%, FB%: 41% for a 0.96
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 16%.
Cleveland Indians have the #11
bullpen, #15 offense, and are rated #21 in fielding. They have a road
record of 18-23 (44%), ranked #22 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Cincinnati
Reds have the #22 bullpen, #7 offense, and are rated #4 in fielding.
They have a home record of 22-19 (54%), ranked #13 in MLB and have Won 1
in a row.
CLE is 10-6 in ILP, while CIN is 5-10. Arroyo has allowed 21 homeruns this season already, most in the majors.
New York Yankees 48-31 (61%) @ New York Mets 41-40 (51%)
I.
Nova, starting for New York Yankees, has a FIP of 4.51 (#153 in MLB),
xFIP of 4.21 (#142 in MLB), and tERA of 4.78 (#145 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .282, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of -0.33. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.37,
with a WHIP of 1.44, and opponent BA of .261. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 56%, FB%: 28% for a 2.02 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 11%.
J. Niese, starting for New York Mets, has a
FIP of 3.63 (#72 in MLB), xFIP of 3.43 (#40 in MLB), and tERA of 4.1
(#83 in MLB), with a BABIP of .302, LOB% of 72%, and E-F of 0.05. He has
a K/BB ratio of 2.47, with a WHIP of 1.35, and opponent BA of .257. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 50%, FB%: 29% for a 1.73
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.
New York Yankees have the #8
bullpen, #1 offense, and are rated #3 in fielding. They have a road
record of 20-13 (61%), ranked #2 in MLB and have Won 5 in a row.
New
York Mets have the #19 bullpen, #10 offense, and are rated #19 in
fielding. They have a home record of 18-20 (47%), ranked #23 in MLB and
have Lost 1 in a row.
Bombers are 16-8 against lefties, 92-56 over the last couple of seasons. Niese has never faced NYY.
St Louis Cardinals 44-38 (54%) @ Tampa Bay Rays 45-36 (56%)
J.
Westbrook, starting for St Louis Cardinals, has a FIP of 4.24 (#129 in
MLB), xFIP of 4.08 (#121 in MLB), and tERA of 4.21 (#101 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .333, LOB% of 66%, and E-F of 1.08. He has a K/BB ratio of
1.25, with a WHIP of 1.66, and opponent BA of .304. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 62%, FB%: 22% for a 2.78 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 10%.
W. Davis, starting for Tampa Bay Rays, has a
FIP of 5.12 (#183 in MLB), xFIP of 5.19 (#197 in MLB), and tERA of 5.16
(#167 in MLB), with a BABIP of .275, LOB% of 77%, and E-F of -0.8. He
has a K/BB ratio of 1.26, with a WHIP of 1.44, and opponent BA of .268.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 33%, FB%: 48% for a 0.68
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
St Louis Cardinals have the #24
bullpen, #5 offense, and are rated #27 in fielding. They have a road
record of 23-20 (53%), ranked #7 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.
Tampa
Bay Rays have the #23 bullpen, #16 offense, and are rated #1 in
fielding. They have a home record of 19-20 (49%), ranked #19 in MLB and
have Lost 1 in a row.
Westbrook is pitching on 6 days rest. Wade
Davis has never faced this Cardinals lineup. O/U is 10-28 in Rays' home
games and 76-119 last couple of years (that's 61% to the UNDER)
Odds: STL +122 (45%) TBR -130 (57%) O/U = 9
Lean: UNDER
=======================================
Baltimore Orioles 35-43 (45%) @ Atlanta Braves 47-35 (57%)
J.
Guthrie, starting for Baltimore Orioles, has a FIP of 4.1 (#115 in
MLB), xFIP of 4.05 (#115 in MLB), and tERA of 4.93 (#156 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .287, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of -0.13. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.75, with a WHIP of 1.28, and opponent BA of .264. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 35%, FB%: 42% for a 0.82 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 9%.
J. Jurrjens, starting for Atlanta Braves, has a
FIP of 3.22 (#39 in MLB), xFIP of 3.8 (#89 in MLB), and tERA of 4.01
(#75 in MLB), with a BABIP of .271, LOB% of 84%, and E-F of -1.15. He
has a K/BB ratio of 2.5, with a WHIP of 1.14, and opponent BA of .24.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 35% for a 1.24
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 5%.
Baltimore Orioles have the #27
bullpen, #12 offense, and are rated #30 in fielding. They have a road
record of 13-21 (38%), ranked #28 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.
Atlanta
Braves have the #1 bullpen, #22 offense, and are rated #26 in fielding.
They have a home record of 22-17 (56%), ranked #10 in MLB and have Won 3
in a row.
Baltimore is 9-25 against winning teams this year.
Braves are 8-5 with a day off. Neither pitcher faced these lineups in
the past.
Odds: BAL +157 (39%) ATL -167 (63%) O/U = 7
Lean: Atlanta
=======================================
Boston Red Sox 46-34 (58%) @ Houston Astros 29-53 (35%)
T.
Wakefield, starting for Boston Red Sox, has a FIP of 5.1 (#182 in MLB),
xFIP of 5.06 (#192 in MLB), and tERA of 4.9 (#154 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .22, LOB% of 66%, and E-F of -0.6. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.24, with
a WHIP of 1.21, and opponent BA of .223. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 14%, GB%: 36%, FB%: 50% for a 0.73 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of
10%.
B. Norris, starting for Houston Astros, has a FIP of 3.42
(#54 in MLB), xFIP of 3.33 (#28 in MLB), and tERA of 3.69 (#51 in MLB),
with a BABIP of .29, LOB% of 72%, and E-F of -0.05. He has a K/BB ratio
of 2.63, with a WHIP of 1.24, and opponent BA of .23. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 40%, FB%: 40% for a 1 GB/FB ratio, and a
HR/FB of 10%.
Boston Red Sox have the #5 bullpen, #2 offense,
and are rated #5 in fielding. They have a road record of 24-18 (57%),
ranked #4 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Houston Astros have the
#25 bullpen, #19 offense, and are rated #29 in fielding. They have a
home record of 14-30 (32%), ranked #30 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Youkilis is questionable and Ortiz is out. Neither pitcher faced these lineups before.
New York Yankees 48-31 (61%) @ New York Mets 41-40 (51%)
I.
Nova, starting for New York Yankees, has a FIP of 4.51 (#153 in MLB),
xFIP of 4.21 (#142 in MLB), and tERA of 4.78 (#145 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .282, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of -0.33. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.37,
with a WHIP of 1.44, and opponent BA of .261. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 56%, FB%: 28% for a 2.02 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 11%.
J. Niese, starting for New York Mets, has a
FIP of 3.63 (#72 in MLB), xFIP of 3.43 (#40 in MLB), and tERA of 4.1
(#83 in MLB), with a BABIP of .302, LOB% of 72%, and E-F of 0.05. He has
a K/BB ratio of 2.47, with a WHIP of 1.35, and opponent BA of .257. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 50%, FB%: 29% for a 1.73
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.
New York Yankees have the #8
bullpen, #1 offense, and are rated #3 in fielding. They have a road
record of 20-13 (61%), ranked #2 in MLB and have Won 5 in a row.
New
York Mets have the #19 bullpen, #10 offense, and are rated #19 in
fielding. They have a home record of 18-20 (47%), ranked #23 in MLB and
have Lost 1 in a row.
Bombers are 16-8 against lefties, 92-56 over the last couple of seasons. Niese has never faced NYY.
St Louis Cardinals 44-38 (54%) @ Tampa Bay Rays 45-36 (56%)
J.
Westbrook, starting for St Louis Cardinals, has a FIP of 4.24 (#129 in
MLB), xFIP of 4.08 (#121 in MLB), and tERA of 4.21 (#101 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .333, LOB% of 66%, and E-F of 1.08. He has a K/BB ratio of
1.25, with a WHIP of 1.66, and opponent BA of .304. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 62%, FB%: 22% for a 2.78 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 10%.
W. Davis, starting for Tampa Bay Rays, has a
FIP of 5.12 (#183 in MLB), xFIP of 5.19 (#197 in MLB), and tERA of 5.16
(#167 in MLB), with a BABIP of .275, LOB% of 77%, and E-F of -0.8. He
has a K/BB ratio of 1.26, with a WHIP of 1.44, and opponent BA of .268.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 33%, FB%: 48% for a 0.68
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
St Louis Cardinals have the #24
bullpen, #5 offense, and are rated #27 in fielding. They have a road
record of 23-20 (53%), ranked #7 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.
Tampa
Bay Rays have the #23 bullpen, #16 offense, and are rated #1 in
fielding. They have a home record of 19-20 (49%), ranked #19 in MLB and
have Lost 1 in a row.
Westbrook is pitching on 6 days rest. Wade
Davis has never faced this Cardinals lineup. O/U is 10-28 in Rays' home
games and 76-119 last couple of years (that's 61% to the UNDER)
Odds: STL +122 (45%) TBR -130 (57%) O/U = 9
Lean: UNDER
=======================================
Baltimore Orioles 35-43 (45%) @ Atlanta Braves 47-35 (57%)
J.
Guthrie, starting for Baltimore Orioles, has a FIP of 4.1 (#115 in
MLB), xFIP of 4.05 (#115 in MLB), and tERA of 4.93 (#156 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .287, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of -0.13. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.75, with a WHIP of 1.28, and opponent BA of .264. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 35%, FB%: 42% for a 0.82 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 9%.
J. Jurrjens, starting for Atlanta Braves, has a
FIP of 3.22 (#39 in MLB), xFIP of 3.8 (#89 in MLB), and tERA of 4.01
(#75 in MLB), with a BABIP of .271, LOB% of 84%, and E-F of -1.15. He
has a K/BB ratio of 2.5, with a WHIP of 1.14, and opponent BA of .24.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 35% for a 1.24
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 5%.
Baltimore Orioles have the #27
bullpen, #12 offense, and are rated #30 in fielding. They have a road
record of 13-21 (38%), ranked #28 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.
Atlanta
Braves have the #1 bullpen, #22 offense, and are rated #26 in fielding.
They have a home record of 22-17 (56%), ranked #10 in MLB and have Won 3
in a row.
Baltimore is 9-25 against winning teams this year.
Braves are 8-5 with a day off. Neither pitcher faced these lineups in
the past.
Odds: BAL +157 (39%) ATL -167 (63%) O/U = 7
Lean: Atlanta
=======================================
Boston Red Sox 46-34 (58%) @ Houston Astros 29-53 (35%)
T.
Wakefield, starting for Boston Red Sox, has a FIP of 5.1 (#182 in MLB),
xFIP of 5.06 (#192 in MLB), and tERA of 4.9 (#154 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .22, LOB% of 66%, and E-F of -0.6. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.24, with
a WHIP of 1.21, and opponent BA of .223. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 14%, GB%: 36%, FB%: 50% for a 0.73 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of
10%.
B. Norris, starting for Houston Astros, has a FIP of 3.42
(#54 in MLB), xFIP of 3.33 (#28 in MLB), and tERA of 3.69 (#51 in MLB),
with a BABIP of .29, LOB% of 72%, and E-F of -0.05. He has a K/BB ratio
of 2.63, with a WHIP of 1.24, and opponent BA of .23. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 40%, FB%: 40% for a 1 GB/FB ratio, and a
HR/FB of 10%.
Boston Red Sox have the #5 bullpen, #2 offense,
and are rated #5 in fielding. They have a road record of 24-18 (57%),
ranked #4 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Houston Astros have the
#25 bullpen, #19 offense, and are rated #29 in fielding. They have a
home record of 14-30 (32%), ranked #30 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Youkilis is questionable and Ortiz is out. Neither pitcher faced these lineups before.
A.
Sanchez, starting for Florida Marlins, has a FIP of 2.84 (#22 in MLB),
xFIP of 2.93 (#11 in MLB), and tERA of 3.25 (#18 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .294, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.02. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.69,
with a WHIP of 1.13, and opponent BA of .228. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 36% for a 1.26 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 8%.
A. Ogando, starting for Texas Rangers, has a
FIP of 3.48 (#62 in MLB), xFIP of 3.79 (#87 in MLB), and tERA of 4.18
(#96 in MLB), with a BABIP of .244, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of -0.61. He
has a K/BB ratio of 3.25, with a WHIP of 1.03, and opponent BA of .216.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 36%, FB%: 42% for a 0.86
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
Florida Marlins have the #9
bullpen, #23 offense, and are rated #16 in fielding. They have a road
record of 20-21 (49%), ranked #16 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Texas
Rangers have the #30 bullpen, #3 offense, and are rated #9 in fielding.
They have a home record of 23-16 (59%), ranked #8 in MLB and have Lost 1
in a row.
Kansas City Royals 33-48 (41%) @ Colorado Rockies 39-42 (48%)
D.
Duffy, starting for Kansas City Royals, has a FIP of 5.41 (#191 in
MLB), xFIP of 4.53 (#166 in MLB), and tERA of 6.05 (#189 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .333, LOB% of 82%, and E-F of -0.8. He has a K/BB ratio of
1.35, with a WHIP of 1.73, and opponent BA of .298. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 42%, FB%: 38% for a 1.13 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 15%.
J. Nicasio, starting for Colorado Rockies,
has a FIP of 4.52 (#154 in MLB), xFIP of 3.57 (#58 in MLB), and tERA of
5.86 (#185 in MLB), with a BABIP of .32, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.56.
He has a K/BB ratio of 3.25, with a WHIP of 1.4, and opponent BA of
.289. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 39%, FB%: 37% for a
1.05 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 15%.
Kansas City Royals have
the #21 bullpen, #12 offense, and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a
road record of 40840 (50%), ranked #11 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.
Colorado
Rockies have the #12 bullpen, #11 offense, and are rated #13 in
fielding. They have a home record of 20-21 (49%), ranked #18 in MLB and
have Lost 2 in a row.
KC is 2-9 in their last 11. Rockies are
2-6 in their last 8. Really wish the O/U number was at 9 but at 10 it's
most likely a pass.
Odds: KCR +146 (41%) COL -155 (61%) O/U = 10
Lean: OVER
=======================================
Y.
Gallardo, starting for Milwaukee Brewers, has a FIP of 3.67 (#76 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.36 (#30 in MLB), and tERA of 3.95 (#73 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .317, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of 0.25. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.41, with a WHIP of 1.41, and opponent BA of .262. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 50%, FB%: 32% for a 1.57 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 11%.
F. Liriano, starting for Minnesota Twins, has
a FIP of 4.21 (#125 in MLB), xFIP of 4.23 (#143 in MLB), and tERA of
4.1 (#83 in MLB), with a BABIP of .265, LOB% of 65%, and E-F of 0.76. He
has a K/BB ratio of 1.56, with a WHIP of 1.37, and opponent BA of .224.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 15%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 39% for a
1.19 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
Milwaukee Brewers have the
#6 bullpen, #6 offense, and are rated #14 in fielding. They have a road
record of 15-27 (36%), ranked #30 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.
Minnesota
Twins have the #29 bullpen, #27 offense, and are rated #12 in fielding.
They have a home record of 16-17 (48%), ranked #22 in MLB and have Won 2
in a row.
Rematch from a week ago when Liriano got rocked (5
ER's in 3.7 innings) and Gallardo cruised (1 ER in 7 innings). Brewers
just got swept by the Yankees, and had all their big 'bats' in the
lineup yesterday trying to salvage at least one game (no rest).
Twinkies had a day off and are actually 5-3 in those scenarios this
year. Liriano has a 7.62 ERA at home but is in a 'bounceback' game
here.
J.
Collmenter, starting for Arizona Diamondbacks, has a FIP of 3.9 (#98 in
MLB), xFIP of 4.23 (#143 in MLB), and tERA of 4.04 (#77 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .228, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.8. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.67, with a WHIP of 1.05, and opponent BA of .215. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 38%, FB%: 46% for a 0.82 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 8%.
Arizona Diamondbacks have the #13 bullpen,
#8 offense, and are rated #2 in fielding. They have a road record of
21-19 (53%), ranked #10 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
Oakland
Athletics have the #4 bullpen, #29 offense, and are rated #25 in
fielding. They have a home record of 20-18 (53%), ranked #14 in MLB and
have Lost 2 in a row.
HARDEN is back! 'Zona are 7-0 on the road in the -100 to -125 spread range. Collmenter is becoming a very 'mediocre' pitcher.
A.
Sanchez, starting for Florida Marlins, has a FIP of 2.84 (#22 in MLB),
xFIP of 2.93 (#11 in MLB), and tERA of 3.25 (#18 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .294, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.02. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.69,
with a WHIP of 1.13, and opponent BA of .228. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 36% for a 1.26 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 8%.
A. Ogando, starting for Texas Rangers, has a
FIP of 3.48 (#62 in MLB), xFIP of 3.79 (#87 in MLB), and tERA of 4.18
(#96 in MLB), with a BABIP of .244, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of -0.61. He
has a K/BB ratio of 3.25, with a WHIP of 1.03, and opponent BA of .216.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 36%, FB%: 42% for a 0.86
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
Florida Marlins have the #9
bullpen, #23 offense, and are rated #16 in fielding. They have a road
record of 20-21 (49%), ranked #16 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Texas
Rangers have the #30 bullpen, #3 offense, and are rated #9 in fielding.
They have a home record of 23-16 (59%), ranked #8 in MLB and have Lost 1
in a row.
Kansas City Royals 33-48 (41%) @ Colorado Rockies 39-42 (48%)
D.
Duffy, starting for Kansas City Royals, has a FIP of 5.41 (#191 in
MLB), xFIP of 4.53 (#166 in MLB), and tERA of 6.05 (#189 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .333, LOB% of 82%, and E-F of -0.8. He has a K/BB ratio of
1.35, with a WHIP of 1.73, and opponent BA of .298. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 42%, FB%: 38% for a 1.13 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 15%.
J. Nicasio, starting for Colorado Rockies,
has a FIP of 4.52 (#154 in MLB), xFIP of 3.57 (#58 in MLB), and tERA of
5.86 (#185 in MLB), with a BABIP of .32, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.56.
He has a K/BB ratio of 3.25, with a WHIP of 1.4, and opponent BA of
.289. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 39%, FB%: 37% for a
1.05 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 15%.
Kansas City Royals have
the #21 bullpen, #12 offense, and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a
road record of 40840 (50%), ranked #11 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.
Colorado
Rockies have the #12 bullpen, #11 offense, and are rated #13 in
fielding. They have a home record of 20-21 (49%), ranked #18 in MLB and
have Lost 2 in a row.
KC is 2-9 in their last 11. Rockies are
2-6 in their last 8. Really wish the O/U number was at 9 but at 10 it's
most likely a pass.
Odds: KCR +146 (41%) COL -155 (61%) O/U = 10
Lean: OVER
=======================================
Y.
Gallardo, starting for Milwaukee Brewers, has a FIP of 3.67 (#76 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.36 (#30 in MLB), and tERA of 3.95 (#73 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .317, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of 0.25. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.41, with a WHIP of 1.41, and opponent BA of .262. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 50%, FB%: 32% for a 1.57 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 11%.
F. Liriano, starting for Minnesota Twins, has
a FIP of 4.21 (#125 in MLB), xFIP of 4.23 (#143 in MLB), and tERA of
4.1 (#83 in MLB), with a BABIP of .265, LOB% of 65%, and E-F of 0.76. He
has a K/BB ratio of 1.56, with a WHIP of 1.37, and opponent BA of .224.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 15%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 39% for a
1.19 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
Milwaukee Brewers have the
#6 bullpen, #6 offense, and are rated #14 in fielding. They have a road
record of 15-27 (36%), ranked #30 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.
Minnesota
Twins have the #29 bullpen, #27 offense, and are rated #12 in fielding.
They have a home record of 16-17 (48%), ranked #22 in MLB and have Won 2
in a row.
Rematch from a week ago when Liriano got rocked (5
ER's in 3.7 innings) and Gallardo cruised (1 ER in 7 innings). Brewers
just got swept by the Yankees, and had all their big 'bats' in the
lineup yesterday trying to salvage at least one game (no rest).
Twinkies had a day off and are actually 5-3 in those scenarios this
year. Liriano has a 7.62 ERA at home but is in a 'bounceback' game
here.
J.
Collmenter, starting for Arizona Diamondbacks, has a FIP of 3.9 (#98 in
MLB), xFIP of 4.23 (#143 in MLB), and tERA of 4.04 (#77 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .228, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.8. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.67, with a WHIP of 1.05, and opponent BA of .215. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 38%, FB%: 46% for a 0.82 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 8%.
Arizona Diamondbacks have the #13 bullpen,
#8 offense, and are rated #2 in fielding. They have a road record of
21-19 (53%), ranked #10 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
Oakland
Athletics have the #4 bullpen, #29 offense, and are rated #25 in
fielding. They have a home record of 20-18 (53%), ranked #14 in MLB and
have Lost 2 in a row.
HARDEN is back! 'Zona are 7-0 on the road in the -100 to -125 spread range. Collmenter is becoming a very 'mediocre' pitcher.
Los Angeles Dodgers 36-46 (44%) @ LAA Angels 42-40 (51%)
H.
Kuroda, starting for Los Angeles Dodgers, has a FIP of 3.82 (#89 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.55 (#54 in MLB), and tERA of 4.16 (#94 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .282, LOB% of 78%, and E-F of -0.72. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.75, with a WHIP of 1.25, and opponent BA of .249. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 35% for a 1.26 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 11%.
T. Chatwood, starting for LAA Angels, has a
FIP of 4.36 (#140 in MLB), xFIP of 4.67 (#173 in MLB), and tERA of 5.17
(#169 in MLB), with a BABIP of .291, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of -0.72. He
has a K/BB ratio of 1.07, with a WHIP of 1.47, and opponent BA of .261.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 33% for a 1.34
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
Los Angeles Dodgers have the #18
bullpen, #20 offense, and are rated #15 in fielding. They have a road
record of 17-22 (44%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
LAA
Angels have the #16 bullpen, #16 offense, and are rated #6 in fielding.
They have a home record of 18-20 (47%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Won 3
in a row.
Angels are 11-4 in ILP this year and 36-15 in the last
couple of years. They are 6-3 with a day off. Dodgers are 5-7 in ILP,
18-27 last couple of years and 3-5 with a day off.
San Diego Padres 37-45 (45%) @ Seattle Mariners 39-42 (48%)
D.
Moseley, starting for San Diego Padres, has a FIP of 3.98 (#104 in
MLB), xFIP of 4.16 (#132 in MLB), and tERA of 3.88 (#65 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .271, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.94. He has a K/BB ratio of
1.59, with a WHIP of 1.27, and opponent BA of .251. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 51%, FB%: 32% for a 1.62 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 8%.
J. Vargas, starting for Seattle Mariners, has a
FIP of 3.78 (#84 in MLB), xFIP of 4.16 (#132 in MLB), and tERA of 3.64
(#46 in MLB), with a BABIP of .265, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of 0.11. He has
a K/BB ratio of 2.27, with a WHIP of 1.21, and opponent BA of .238. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 38%, FB%: 45% for a 0.84
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
San Diego Padres have the #2
bullpen, #27 offense, and are rated #18 in fielding. They have a road
record of 18-18 (50%), ranked #11 in MLB and have Won 4 in a row.
Seattle
Mariners have the #10 bullpen, #30 offense, and are rated #20 in
fielding. They have a home record of 23-22 (51%), ranked #15 in MLB and
have Lost 3 in a row.
Los Angeles Dodgers 36-46 (44%) @ LAA Angels 42-40 (51%)
H.
Kuroda, starting for Los Angeles Dodgers, has a FIP of 3.82 (#89 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.55 (#54 in MLB), and tERA of 4.16 (#94 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .282, LOB% of 78%, and E-F of -0.72. He has a K/BB ratio of
2.75, with a WHIP of 1.25, and opponent BA of .249. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 35% for a 1.26 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 11%.
T. Chatwood, starting for LAA Angels, has a
FIP of 4.36 (#140 in MLB), xFIP of 4.67 (#173 in MLB), and tERA of 5.17
(#169 in MLB), with a BABIP of .291, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of -0.72. He
has a K/BB ratio of 1.07, with a WHIP of 1.47, and opponent BA of .261.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 33% for a 1.34
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
Los Angeles Dodgers have the #18
bullpen, #20 offense, and are rated #15 in fielding. They have a road
record of 17-22 (44%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
LAA
Angels have the #16 bullpen, #16 offense, and are rated #6 in fielding.
They have a home record of 18-20 (47%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Won 3
in a row.
Angels are 11-4 in ILP this year and 36-15 in the last
couple of years. They are 6-3 with a day off. Dodgers are 5-7 in ILP,
18-27 last couple of years and 3-5 with a day off.
San Diego Padres 37-45 (45%) @ Seattle Mariners 39-42 (48%)
D.
Moseley, starting for San Diego Padres, has a FIP of 3.98 (#104 in
MLB), xFIP of 4.16 (#132 in MLB), and tERA of 3.88 (#65 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .271, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.94. He has a K/BB ratio of
1.59, with a WHIP of 1.27, and opponent BA of .251. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 51%, FB%: 32% for a 1.62 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 8%.
J. Vargas, starting for Seattle Mariners, has a
FIP of 3.78 (#84 in MLB), xFIP of 4.16 (#132 in MLB), and tERA of 3.64
(#46 in MLB), with a BABIP of .265, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of 0.11. He has
a K/BB ratio of 2.27, with a WHIP of 1.21, and opponent BA of .238. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 38%, FB%: 45% for a 0.84
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
San Diego Padres have the #2
bullpen, #27 offense, and are rated #18 in fielding. They have a road
record of 18-18 (50%), ranked #11 in MLB and have Won 4 in a row.
Seattle
Mariners have the #10 bullpen, #30 offense, and are rated #20 in
fielding. They have a home record of 23-22 (51%), ranked #15 in MLB and
have Lost 3 in a row.
Wow... miss any games Bodio? Seriously, thank you for your hard work. You put more time into writeups than anyone else on here.
Was wondering if I could get you to pick sides on a few games you didn't have leans on. Like, gun-to-your-head type stuff.
TOR, BOS, TB, AZ, Mil
Also, I was wondering exactly why you lean SFG for the third game in a row. How can you trust their offense, or their bullpen right now? I realize this is just a lean and not an official play, but I'd still like to know because I was leaning Detroit in this game.
Thanks for all your work Bodio, I hope you get all your units back and then some after this interleague bullshit is over.
0
Wow... miss any games Bodio? Seriously, thank you for your hard work. You put more time into writeups than anyone else on here.
Was wondering if I could get you to pick sides on a few games you didn't have leans on. Like, gun-to-your-head type stuff.
TOR, BOS, TB, AZ, Mil
Also, I was wondering exactly why you lean SFG for the third game in a row. How can you trust their offense, or their bullpen right now? I realize this is just a lean and not an official play, but I'd still like to know because I was leaning Detroit in this game.
Thanks for all your work Bodio, I hope you get all your units back and then some after this interleague bullshit is over.
Likin both plays Bodio...great analysis yet again...continue the great work!! Interesting article u posted...depreciation of players as an expense?!?! Gotta love these 'accountants'
0
Likin both plays Bodio...great analysis yet again...continue the great work!! Interesting article u posted...depreciation of players as an expense?!?! Gotta love these 'accountants'
Wow... miss any games Bodio? Seriously, thank you for your hard work. You put more time into writeups than anyone else on here.
Was wondering if I could get you to pick sides on a few games you didn't have leans on. Like, gun-to-your-head type stuff.
TOR, BOS, TB, AZ, Mil
Also, I was wondering exactly why you lean SFG for the third game in a row. How can you trust their offense, or their bullpen right now? I realize this is just a lean and not an official play, but I'd still like to know because I was leaning Detroit in this game.
Thanks for all your work Bodio, I hope you get all your units back and then some after this interleague bullshit is over.
My leans on the games you listed: TOR, HOU (much better pitcher, Boston have to travel, will be missing Youk and Big Papi, coming off a big series with Philly), TB/STL (just shoot me...I really can't even guess which way. I guess the 'home' team but that's just cause I can't make up my mind on this one), OAK (If Harden's control is on (big if), he will strike a lot of guys out and 'Zona is one of those teams that tends to strike-out a lot), MIN (I almost listed that as my lean, but decided not to as Milwaukee overall is a much better team. The problem is that this is a rematch from a week ago and Brew Crew are flying in from NY for this one. Oh and they're the 2nd worst road team in the league).
In terms of the Giants, just a way better starting pitcher on the mound. It's not even close. Sure Giants BP is a bit tired, but theyr'e still way better than Detroit's. So you have an advantage in starting pitching (BIG) and bullpen (BIG) and obviously a disadvantage in hitting (BIG). Pitching always trumps hitting and I would expect Giants O to be pretty productive against a mediocre pitcher like Penny...
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Quote Originally Posted by Beckwith:
Wow... miss any games Bodio? Seriously, thank you for your hard work. You put more time into writeups than anyone else on here.
Was wondering if I could get you to pick sides on a few games you didn't have leans on. Like, gun-to-your-head type stuff.
TOR, BOS, TB, AZ, Mil
Also, I was wondering exactly why you lean SFG for the third game in a row. How can you trust their offense, or their bullpen right now? I realize this is just a lean and not an official play, but I'd still like to know because I was leaning Detroit in this game.
Thanks for all your work Bodio, I hope you get all your units back and then some after this interleague bullshit is over.
My leans on the games you listed: TOR, HOU (much better pitcher, Boston have to travel, will be missing Youk and Big Papi, coming off a big series with Philly), TB/STL (just shoot me...I really can't even guess which way. I guess the 'home' team but that's just cause I can't make up my mind on this one), OAK (If Harden's control is on (big if), he will strike a lot of guys out and 'Zona is one of those teams that tends to strike-out a lot), MIN (I almost listed that as my lean, but decided not to as Milwaukee overall is a much better team. The problem is that this is a rematch from a week ago and Brew Crew are flying in from NY for this one. Oh and they're the 2nd worst road team in the league).
In terms of the Giants, just a way better starting pitcher on the mound. It's not even close. Sure Giants BP is a bit tired, but theyr'e still way better than Detroit's. So you have an advantage in starting pitching (BIG) and bullpen (BIG) and obviously a disadvantage in hitting (BIG). Pitching always trumps hitting and I would expect Giants O to be pretty productive against a mediocre pitcher like Penny...
Likin both plays Bodio...great analysis yet again...continue the great work!! Interesting article u posted...depreciation of players as an expense?!?! Gotta love these 'accountants'
Yeah no shit. That's some bullshit! These owners are pretty ridiculous with their whining about losing $$., with all these 'bogus' tax breaks in place and ways to reduce your real profit through accounting.
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Quote Originally Posted by kRaZeEpLaYa:
Likin both plays Bodio...great analysis yet again...continue the great work!! Interesting article u posted...depreciation of players as an expense?!?! Gotta love these 'accountants'
Yeah no shit. That's some bullshit! These owners are pretty ridiculous with their whining about losing $$., with all these 'bogus' tax breaks in place and ways to reduce your real profit through accounting.
Thanks Bodio. Think I will lay off Boston and just use LVL's POM in some round robins. Really like TB tomorrow, so I'm glad you agree there. Wish you would've said Zona and Mil... but that's quite all right. I'm going to wake up early to see if I can get any more info on the Toronto game. Sucks that you like SF so much because I put Detroit on a contest pick... but oh well I think it's streak survivor and I don't have any streak going.
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Thanks Bodio. Think I will lay off Boston and just use LVL's POM in some round robins. Really like TB tomorrow, so I'm glad you agree there. Wish you would've said Zona and Mil... but that's quite all right. I'm going to wake up early to see if I can get any more info on the Toronto game. Sucks that you like SF so much because I put Detroit on a contest pick... but oh well I think it's streak survivor and I don't have any streak going.
Thanks Bodio. Think I will lay off Boston and just use LVL's POM in some round robins. Really like TB tomorrow, so I'm glad you agree there. Wish you would've said Zona and Mil... but that's quite all right. I'm going to wake up early to see if I can get any more info on the Toronto game. Sucks that you like SF so much because I put Detroit on a contest pick... but oh well I think it's streak survivor and I don't have any streak going.
GL tomorrow bud! Go Tigers...they're a great hitting team and at home. Always big advantages. Hope they win for you and all your other plays as well
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Quote Originally Posted by Beckwith:
Thanks Bodio. Think I will lay off Boston and just use LVL's POM in some round robins. Really like TB tomorrow, so I'm glad you agree there. Wish you would've said Zona and Mil... but that's quite all right. I'm going to wake up early to see if I can get any more info on the Toronto game. Sucks that you like SF so much because I put Detroit on a contest pick... but oh well I think it's streak survivor and I don't have any streak going.
GL tomorrow bud! Go Tigers...they're a great hitting team and at home. Always big advantages. Hope they win for you and all your other plays as well
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