Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
174 - 136 @ 56% for +21.61 Units
Fri 09/02
#1: Atlanta Braves -167
This one is pretty 'juicy' but I love it. Billingsley is coming into this game having allowed 13 hits, 7 walks, and 3 HR"s in his last 2 starts, spanning 13 innings. He's averaged 121 pitches per game in those 2, about 20 pitches over his season average. It seems like he's 'slowing down' a bit. Looking at advanced stats by month helps us determine that assumption:
Apr: 3.62 xFIP / 2.14 K/BB
May: 3.38 xFIP / 2.56 K/BB
Jun: 4.43 xFIP / 1.58 K/BB
Jul: 3.97 xFIP / 2.0 K/BB
Aug: 4.57 xFIP / 1.36 K/BB
As you can see his August performance is way 'OFF' from the previous 4 months and much higher than his 3.97 xFIP for the season. At the same time his K/BB ratio was the lowest of the season at a very mediocre 1.36 ratio as his K-rate was only 13.9% (5.52 K/9) and his walks rate was 4.06 BB/9. In addition, looking at Bilingsley's H/A splits, we see that his road ERA of 5.10 is substantially higher than his home ERA of 3.06. To confirm this I looked up his advanced stats which show a career xFIP of 3.79 at home versus 4.13 on the road, a pretty significant variance. This truly confirms that Billingsley is a significantly better pitcher at Dodger Statium than he is away. Finally, Billingsley's L/R splits reveal that his xFIP against left-handers is 4.07 for his career (below average) while 3.88 against right-handers. Not really off by that much but something to consider as Atlanta is an above average hitting team against righties (they are horrible against left-handers this season) and have a number of left-handed bats in their lineup: Bourn, McCann, Jones, Freeman (should be back today), Hinske, and Heyward.
As Billingsley is clearly regressing at the end of a long season, Beachy is hitting his stride. He's allowed more than 2 ER's in only 1 start since July 24th, has struck out 33 and walked only 4 in his last 4 starts, and held the Dodgers to 2 hits in 6 innings of work in his first career start against them earlier this year. He's had a tremendous month of August with a 2.17 xFIP and 7.40 K/BB ratio. I don't see any reason why he shouldn't be 'ON' his game again tonight.
Atlanta is 60-37 (62%) against righties this year and 43-26 (62%) at home. I see them getting another comfortable win tonight.
#2: UNDER 9.5 TOR/NYY -115
My model has this one at 8.4 total runs and 10 runs would be needed for this wager to lose. Nova has been pitching very well lately and he has a 3.86 ERA against TOR in his three career starts against them. Morrow was flat-out dominant against the Bombers in his one start against them this year, holding them to 4 hits and 1 ER in 6.7 innings of work. I know he's given up 5 HR's in his last 2 starts, but that makes up 33% of his 2011 total, so I'm treating it as an anomaly and not a trend. New York will be missing A-Rod in this one and most likely Tex (all reports I saw have him sit this one out) thus making their lineup far less potent. In New York's last 3 games where the O/U was listed as 9.5 a total of 13 runs were scored (4.33 total per game) and all stayed UNDER. I expect a similar outcome tonight as this one is a bit over-inflated.
Good luck!
174 - 136 @ 56% for +21.61 Units
Fri 09/02
#1: Atlanta Braves -167
This one is pretty 'juicy' but I love it. Billingsley is coming into this game having allowed 13 hits, 7 walks, and 3 HR"s in his last 2 starts, spanning 13 innings. He's averaged 121 pitches per game in those 2, about 20 pitches over his season average. It seems like he's 'slowing down' a bit. Looking at advanced stats by month helps us determine that assumption:
Apr: 3.62 xFIP / 2.14 K/BB
May: 3.38 xFIP / 2.56 K/BB
Jun: 4.43 xFIP / 1.58 K/BB
Jul: 3.97 xFIP / 2.0 K/BB
Aug: 4.57 xFIP / 1.36 K/BB
As you can see his August performance is way 'OFF' from the previous 4 months and much higher than his 3.97 xFIP for the season. At the same time his K/BB ratio was the lowest of the season at a very mediocre 1.36 ratio as his K-rate was only 13.9% (5.52 K/9) and his walks rate was 4.06 BB/9. In addition, looking at Bilingsley's H/A splits, we see that his road ERA of 5.10 is substantially higher than his home ERA of 3.06. To confirm this I looked up his advanced stats which show a career xFIP of 3.79 at home versus 4.13 on the road, a pretty significant variance. This truly confirms that Billingsley is a significantly better pitcher at Dodger Statium than he is away. Finally, Billingsley's L/R splits reveal that his xFIP against left-handers is 4.07 for his career (below average) while 3.88 against right-handers. Not really off by that much but something to consider as Atlanta is an above average hitting team against righties (they are horrible against left-handers this season) and have a number of left-handed bats in their lineup: Bourn, McCann, Jones, Freeman (should be back today), Hinske, and Heyward.
As Billingsley is clearly regressing at the end of a long season, Beachy is hitting his stride. He's allowed more than 2 ER's in only 1 start since July 24th, has struck out 33 and walked only 4 in his last 4 starts, and held the Dodgers to 2 hits in 6 innings of work in his first career start against them earlier this year. He's had a tremendous month of August with a 2.17 xFIP and 7.40 K/BB ratio. I don't see any reason why he shouldn't be 'ON' his game again tonight.
Atlanta is 60-37 (62%) against righties this year and 43-26 (62%) at home. I see them getting another comfortable win tonight.
#2: UNDER 9.5 TOR/NYY -115
My model has this one at 8.4 total runs and 10 runs would be needed for this wager to lose. Nova has been pitching very well lately and he has a 3.86 ERA against TOR in his three career starts against them. Morrow was flat-out dominant against the Bombers in his one start against them this year, holding them to 4 hits and 1 ER in 6.7 innings of work. I know he's given up 5 HR's in his last 2 starts, but that makes up 33% of his 2011 total, so I'm treating it as an anomaly and not a trend. New York will be missing A-Rod in this one and most likely Tex (all reports I saw have him sit this one out) thus making their lineup far less potent. In New York's last 3 games where the O/U was listed as 9.5 a total of 13 runs were scored (4.33 total per game) and all stayed UNDER. I expect a similar outcome tonight as this one is a bit over-inflated.
Good luck!
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-----------------------------------
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