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Bodio's MLB Fri 09/02

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by RedFlagCapper:

A question from yesterday, why do you think team totals are a riskier bet?  What's your thinking behind this?

My logic here is this.  If you have 2 'stud' pitchers, even if one is a bit OFF, you could still get your desired result on the outcome of the game (assuming you're playing UNDER).  If you're just selecting 1 team's total, if that pitcher is OFF from how you expect him to perform the bet is 'cooked'.  Therefore, it's a bit riskier.  Hope this makes sense
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by Qncyk1:

love atl today. dodgers have traveled from west coast to east coast on wed and now traveling again from pitt.

billingsley historically regresses after the break.

 

 


Good point.  The travel could be a bit of a factor possibly as well
 
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Posted: #53
Best of Luck
 
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Posted: #54
BOL as ALWAYS
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by KenoLounge:

Boston too.

I see great value in Miller holding them to a 6-0 in his last start vs the Rangers.

What is your recommendation as this and NYM are my biggest leans for today.

Thanks Bodio.

I and thousands of others reading your posts respect your professional opinion.

The fact that Miller held Rangers in check only 7 days ago is insignificant.  Those Rangers bats are dangerous and Miller is a terrible pitcher.  I could see them teeing off on him tonight! 
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by jellsbury:

Bodio, love the Braves pick! BOL.  Question, what does your model have the Tigers/Sox game at for total runs? I'm thinking about Tigers -1 and/or the under... Would love your thoughts, thanks.

Got this one at 7.2 total runs.  
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by Czar_10:

Sup Bodio.... as always thnx for the write ups

im in with ATL.. not so sure about NYY under B. Morrow in the last 3 visits to NY he has recieved 5 runs in less than 5 inns... and i dont see Morrow in good shape for this game also he recieved like 5 runs ave. in the las 2 games  plus nyy fight for the 1st place vs bos.. dunno its just risky playing de under for me what you think of the NYY RL or NYY 1st 5inn...???

lol.. i always tell you the same and you end up winning anyway haha just dont like playing unders with the bmbers

For those who likes Cle and NyM be careful watch their lineups for today


as always thnx Bodio and GL

Statistically Morrow is a better pitcher than Nova, but you can't ignore Ivan's run lately either.  I'd pass on the side here especially with A-Rod and Tex out it's even riskier. 

I agree with you on being careful with CLE and NYM.  That's why those are passes for me
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by VegasGangsta:

For cleveland game I have a strong UNDER lean.  I am a die hard indians fan....watched almost every game start to finish all year.  team is desimated with injury + Chen pitches well against us.

We have too many lefties and too many AAA players in the lineup.  Masterson has been solid all year.  This should be a 3-2 type of game.  last time they faced each other in Cleveland it was 2-1.  


I have this one at 7.6 total runs but you have to account for the lineups as well, like you mentioned.  Definitely UNDER or pass in this one.  GL
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by bigzaw:

hey bodio.
Just curious on your thoughts with regards to the
under 7.5 in the tampa / balt game
under 8 cleveland / kc

also keep up the good work
you are doing a great job
thanks

UNDER in TAM/BAL is one of my strong leans. 
Kind of like the UNDER in the CLE/KC game as well 

good luck
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by jwbjwbjwb12:

thoughts on san fran and baylor plus the points. thanks bodio

Baylor eh?  They do have revenge on their minds but damn is it tough to go against TCU.  the line's been dropping and I can't help and think that there's some 'value' on TCU now...If it reaches -3 TCU, it might be a play for me. 
 
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Posted: #61
Hey bodio i was leaning over 8 runs in the Milwaukee/Houston game but I noticed the wind was blowing towards home plate, so this has left me a bit skeptical. What would be your honest opinion on this just to give me a better idea Milwaukee/Houston over 8 ?

                 Thank you
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:

Bodio you know whats up with the Atlanta Chicago game next Sunday?  Line opened at -1 Chicago and now its Chicago +3.  Just the public all over it or what you thinking?


probably because Bears are going to get 'worked'  :)
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

Re-post......I haven't been playing a ton of totals lately but I'm leaning towards the U 8 in the MUTS/NATS game. Dickey has been solid with 7 straight quality starts and his L3 have been very good with 20.1 IP,a 1.08 whip and 2.21 era. Detwiler goes for the NATS and he has throw 3 straight quality starts himself lasting 18.2 IP,a 1.34 whip and solid 2.41 era. Also the both teams are trending under recently. The NATS have just 2 overs to 6 unders and 2 pushes L10 while the MUTS have 5 overs and 5 unders L10 but all 5 unders have come over their L6 games.

I know you're busy with all of us badgering you but if you could let me know what the model has for this total I would be very thankful

I have this one at 7.4 total runs.  Good luck buddy
 
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Posted: #64
What up BO ? Hit em hard brother !!!
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by jgjtrapboss:

Hey bodio i was leaning over 8 runs in the Milwaukee/Houston game but I noticed the wind was blowing towards home plate, so this has left me a bit skeptical. What would be your honest opinion on this just to give me a better idea Milwaukee/Houston over 8 ?

                 Thank you

No idea as I don't know much about this Harrell guy.  Looking at his minor league stats, he seems like a very mediocre hitter and could get rocked by the Brewers.  If the roof is closed the wind wouldn't be significant so check on that.  
 
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Posted: #66
thanks for the insight with baylor. i locked them in earlier in the week but might buy back if it reached -3 and hope for a middle
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Baylor eh?  They do have revenge on their minds but damn is it tough to go against TCU.  the line's been dropping and I can't help and think that there's some 'value' on TCU now...If it reaches -3 TCU, it might be a play for me. 
I liked TCU when it opened but the line is dropping faster than my pants at a strip club and I'm not sure whether it's a good thing or a bad thing. I guess if I liked -6.5 -3.5 is great but why so much movement ??.

I was hoping it was closer to 7 but I think I may go with it anyways. And much thanx for the help on the model I know your busy and have more people throwing questions at you each day than Alex Trebek. "I'll take Ape Tit for 1000 Alex.........Thats A Petit Dejeuner".
 
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Posted: #68
thank you.
 
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Posted: #69
If you had to pick a side on the total mil/  hou over or under 8
       I know its probably not the best to just ask you a tossup like that but just out of curiosity
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Good point.  The travel could be a bit of a factor possibly as well

not only that, they lost three hours traveling from west coast to east coast.

 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

I liked TCU when it opened but the line is dropping faster than my pants at a strip club and I'm not sure whether it's a good thing or a bad thing. I guess if I liked -6.5 -3.5 is great but why so much movement ??.

I was hoping it was closer to 7 but I think I may go with it anyways. And much thanx for the help on the model I know your busy and have more people throwing questions at you each day than Alex Trebek. "I'll take Ape Tit for 1000 Alex.........Thats A Petit Dejeuner".

I'll probably have a small 'action' wager on TCU.  
At -5.5 it was a no-play but at -3.5 it's worth a small bet.

good luck
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by jgjtrapboss:

If you had to pick a side on the total mil/  hou over or under 8
       I know its probably not the best to just ask you a tossup like that but just out of curiosity

UNDER
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


probably because Bears are going to get 'worked'  :)

Haha.  Yeah I like the play just wanna make sure I am not missing something.

 
 
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Posted: #75
bodio,

seeing that ATL jumped to -190 with my local...would you recommend the -1.5 runline for +125?
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