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Bodio's MLB Fri 09/02

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Posted: #26

Awesome  write up on the braves.  

 

last  night ,  the  general manager of the  braves  was in th booth  and he  recounted a conversation he  had  with McCann.  McCann stated that  'he had it' ,,,,  meaning he was  very confident  with his  swing  and  to watch him tonight..     McCann  went  1-3  with a  walk and a  HR

Just  saying,  if  McCann is feeling the groove.....  the  Braves are looking  good.     Not  to  mention  Chipper has  been pretty good  lately.  too.

 
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Posted: #27
I like following your plays, i appreciate the work you put in.  Thanks.  Just a side note, for me...I hate laying big chalk so on some of your plays (like today) i drop down and play 0.5u on the Atl RL as they are playing good and I get +$...not a fan of home runlines, but not a fan of big chalk either.  Thats just what I do, any feedback is much appreciated.  Then a full unit on the total in NY. GL.
 
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Posted: #28
Huh,gotta say I'm a little surprised to see that U play but then again you shock me on just about a daily basis 

I see Morrow has some solid advanced stats and I've read you type well of him before but as a Canadian and Jays fan I check in on just about all their games and he seems to be either brilliant or turrible and sometimes both in the same game. I'm not on this total either way but even if I was I'd still say BOL buddy.

Gonna go look over some 3 down ball but I gotta say nothing is jumping off the board at me yet. Hopefully after a little investigating I can find 1,2 or 8 plays I like
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

I really like the under in NY too.  Are you at all concerned with the Yankees pen being used up right now?


No not really.  Robertson, Soriano, and Rivera pitched yesterday but they had a day-off the day before.  They should be fine
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by ogkush:

unfortunately I already have the over logged in for yanks/bjays. I think it's going to be a slug fest. GL, I like the braves pick. Any leans on pirates/cubs over/under or ml??

gotta lean OVER with that huge number right?>
It's hot as heck here in Chicago and the wind is blowing out at Wrigley at 12 MPH
 
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Posted: #31
Dodgers also in there 3rd city in 3 days..
 
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Posted: #32
 
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Posted: #33
Bodio, love the Braves pick! BOL.  Question, what does your model have the Tigers/Sox game at for total runs? I'm thinking about Tigers -1 and/or the under... Would love your thoughts, thanks.
 
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Posted: #34
Sup Bodio.... as always thnx for the write ups

im in with ATL.. not so sure about NYY under B. Morrow in the last 3 visits to NY he has recieved 5 runs in less than 5 inns... and i dont see Morrow in good shape for this game also he recieved like 5 runs ave. in the las 2 games  plus nyy fight for the 1st place vs bos.. dunno its just risky playing de under for me what you think of the NYY RL or NYY 1st 5inn...???

lol.. i always tell you the same and you end up winning anyway haha just dont like playing unders with the bmbers

For those who likes Cle and NyM be careful watch their lineups for today


as always thnx Bodio and GL
 
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Posted: #35
 
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Posted: #36
 
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Posted: #37
 GL TODAY BODIO, LIKE THE ATL PLAY.
 
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Posted: #38

For cleveland game I have a strong UNDER lean.  I am a die hard indians fan....watched almost every game start to finish all year.  team is desimated with injury + Chen pitches well against us.

We have too many lefties and too many AAA players in the lineup.  Masterson has been solid all year.  This should be a 3-2 type of game.  last time they faced each other in Cleveland it was 2-1.  

 
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Posted: #39
 
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Posted: #40
hey bodio.
Just curious on your thoughts with regards to the
under 7.5 in the tampa / balt game
under 8 cleveland / kc

also keep up the good work
you are doing a great job
thanks
 
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Posted: #41
thoughts on san fran and baylor plus the points. thanks bodio
 
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Posted: #42
thx for all the picks you've been on fire and always great insight... best of luck
 
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Posted: #43

Bodio you know whats up with the Atlanta Chicago game next Sunday?  Line opened at -1 Chicago and now its Chicago +3.  Just the public all over it or what you thinking?

 
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Posted: #44
best of luck Bodio
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by Makavelli:

Hey Bodio,

Whats the reasoning for not playing Giants tonight?  I see you have them as a lean only.


Yeah, the 'juice' didn't justify it.  Giants' O is very weak and Arizona is hot right now 
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by KenoLounge:

Morning Bodio. Thanks for your write ups. I respect your opinions and enjoy reading analysis.

Regarding: NYM vs Washington

I didn't see any lean for NYM. I looked at this game all night last night and with Dickey starting, these guys are looking good. He's 1-0 in last three starts with a 2.21 era while Detwiler is 1-4 in his last 5 starts with a 4.08 ra. NYM have won 6 of their last 7 and Washington has lost 8 in their last 9

I am leaning BIG towards the NYM. If you have time I would like your in depth opinion and experienced recommendation

Thank you.

Yeah, this one is a slight-lean on the Mets.  Not strong enough for me to include it as a solid lean in the breakdowns.  Mets are also below-average against lefties and Nats home record is very solid.  
 
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Posted: #47
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by nyduccie:

Same question as Makavelli but add Cleve. Im on ATl, Cleve and SFG.

Any reason you left off SFG and Cleve?

Advanced stats heavily favor the Indians, but something about the way Chen is pitching right now.  He's help the tribe in check the last couple of starts against them.  It's a pass for me
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Mozart:

Hey Bodio -- thank you for your picks and BOL to  you, always. 

In your response to my query for the sources of your data, you said:

"espn, fangraphs, baseball-reference"

... but the trouble that I'm having is to find data that is recent, not based on the entire season, as teams are dynamic, so I like to go with more-recent data (like the last 30 days, or post-All Star, at least), rather than the entire season.

I'll keep looking through those sites, though, and any other sites that offer RECENT data on all aspects of the game, i.e., hitting, pitching, fielding, etc.



Yes, all those sites have the functionality to look at a shorter period of time. 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Re-post......I haven't been playing a ton of totals lately but I'm leaning towards the U 8 in the MUTS/NATS game. Dickey has been solid with 7 straight quality starts and his L3 have been very good with 20.1 IP,a 1.08 whip and 2.21 era. Detwiler goes for the NATS and he has throw 3 straight quality starts himself lasting 18.2 IP,a 1.34 whip and solid 2.41 era. Also the both teams are trending under recently. The NATS have just 2 overs to 6 unders and 2 pushes L10 while the MUTS have 5 overs and 5 unders L10 but all 5 unders have come over their L6 games.

I know you're busy with all of us badgering you but if you could let me know what the model has for this total I would be very thankful
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