#1: NY Yankees / Detroit Tigers 2-team Parlay: +120 #2: Chicago White Sox -103 #3: Philadelphia Phillies -119 #4: UNDER 7.5 BOS/PHI -120 #5: OVER 8.5 PIT/TOR -115
Analysis
Good luck
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
2011 MLB Record: 101 - 90 @53%for+0.18 Units
Thur, 06/30
#1: NY Yankees / Detroit Tigers 2-team Parlay: +120 #2: Chicago White Sox -103 #3: Philadelphia Phillies -119 #4: UNDER 7.5 BOS/PHI -120 #5: OVER 8.5 PIT/TOR -115
Analysis
Good luck
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
Should I be worried that you are posting this early? Not getting too eager to rush through a cold spell are you?
I'm serious; we are all tempted to chase losses to a degree; just wanted to be sure you were applying your usual stellar standards of thorough and objective analysis!
BOL....
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Should I be worried that you are posting this early? Not getting too eager to rush through a cold spell are you?
I'm serious; we are all tempted to chase losses to a degree; just wanted to be sure you were applying your usual stellar standards of thorough and objective analysis!
Should I be worried that you are posting this early? Not getting too eager to rush through a cold spell are you?
I'm serious; we are all tempted to chase losses to a degree; just wanted to be sure you were applying your usual stellar standards of thorough and objective analysis!
BOL....
I think he has researched these
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Quote Originally Posted by Paddington:
Should I be worried that you are posting this early? Not getting too eager to rush through a cold spell are you?
I'm serious; we are all tempted to chase losses to a degree; just wanted to be sure you were applying your usual stellar standards of thorough and objective analysis!
No offense, but after betting 200 games and being up only .18 units, it might be time to move on to a different sport.
Daaaammmmnnnnnnn, where u at baller? negative what??? Funny how all you followers hate when shit aint going GREAT. I say great cause its not bad. He is on the Plus... right?? Oh..ok....just checking.
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Quote Originally Posted by WendysRox:
No offense, but after betting 200 games and being up only .18 units, it might be time to move on to a different sport.
Daaaammmmnnnnnnn, where u at baller? negative what??? Funny how all you followers hate when shit aint going GREAT. I say great cause its not bad. He is on the Plus... right?? Oh..ok....just checking.
No offense, but after betting 200 games and being up only .18 units, it might be time to move on to a different sport.
No offense but why bother even checking his thread? You obviously wanted to see his picks. Check his record. He might be 'even' at this point but why quit when you've been making profit throughout all these years?
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Quote Originally Posted by WendysRox:
No offense, but after betting 200 games and being up only .18 units, it might be time to move on to a different sport.
No offense but why bother even checking his thread? You obviously wanted to see his picks. Check his record. He might be 'even' at this point but why quit when you've been making profit throughout all these years?
Should I be worried that you are posting this early? Not getting too eager to rush through a cold spell are you?
I'm serious; we are all tempted to chase losses to a degree; just wanted to be sure you were applying your usual stellar standards of thorough and objective analysis!
BOL....
No you shouldn't be, I see the logic behind every play he's on. Second, it's an early slate, so many handicappers start early because they wan't to do people a courtesy and release the plays earlier so people can get the best odds. I know in at least 3 of his selections the odds will go against you by tomorrow morning.
As far as his recent form is concerned, everybody experiences fluctuations. He's due for an upward progression, it's just the nature of a winning handicapper who is on a downward trend. Hopefully it starts tomorrow.
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Quote Originally Posted by Paddington:
Should I be worried that you are posting this early? Not getting too eager to rush through a cold spell are you?
I'm serious; we are all tempted to chase losses to a degree; just wanted to be sure you were applying your usual stellar standards of thorough and objective analysis!
BOL....
No you shouldn't be, I see the logic behind every play he's on. Second, it's an early slate, so many handicappers start early because they wan't to do people a courtesy and release the plays earlier so people can get the best odds. I know in at least 3 of his selections the odds will go against you by tomorrow morning.
As far as his recent form is concerned, everybody experiences fluctuations. He's due for an upward progression, it's just the nature of a winning handicapper who is on a downward trend. Hopefully it starts tomorrow.
No you shouldn't be, I see the logic behind every play he's on. Second, it's an early slate, so many handicappers start early because they wan't to do people a courtesy and release the plays earlier so people can get the best odds. I know in at least 3 of his selections the odds will go against you by tomorrow morning.
As far as his recent form is concerned, everybody experiences fluctuations. He's due for an upward progression, it's just the nature of a winning handicapper who is on a downward trend. Hopefully it starts tomorrow.
Aint it funny how people start flipping acting like he is losing all kinds of bets/money. He is on the dog gone PLUS!!! Relax people. And like you say 2times he is gonna go up. If your following him its cause you know that he knows what the fuck he is doing, and if you dont know that then why the fuck are you following? Its gambling and the best of the best go on losing skids. Just goes to show how fucking good this guy is. He loses a few in a row and is still in the plus and people freak out like he has lost the last 19 out of 20 or some dumb shit I dont know. Just saying.... fuck relax he is PLUS on 200 bets. Not many can say that and you all take it for granted that he can and does make people money and spends his time capping and helping people out.
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Quote Originally Posted by Mikie2Times:
No you shouldn't be, I see the logic behind every play he's on. Second, it's an early slate, so many handicappers start early because they wan't to do people a courtesy and release the plays earlier so people can get the best odds. I know in at least 3 of his selections the odds will go against you by tomorrow morning.
As far as his recent form is concerned, everybody experiences fluctuations. He's due for an upward progression, it's just the nature of a winning handicapper who is on a downward trend. Hopefully it starts tomorrow.
Aint it funny how people start flipping acting like he is losing all kinds of bets/money. He is on the dog gone PLUS!!! Relax people. And like you say 2times he is gonna go up. If your following him its cause you know that he knows what the fuck he is doing, and if you dont know that then why the fuck are you following? Its gambling and the best of the best go on losing skids. Just goes to show how fucking good this guy is. He loses a few in a row and is still in the plus and people freak out like he has lost the last 19 out of 20 or some dumb shit I dont know. Just saying.... fuck relax he is PLUS on 200 bets. Not many can say that and you all take it for granted that he can and does make people money and spends his time capping and helping people out.
Breaking even after 200 wagers is top shelf for some
I think her point is not that breaking even is top shelf at 200 plays, but 90% of people would either place to much per wager and be in the redor juice out and be in the red after 200 games.
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Quote Originally Posted by NorthOf49Sports:
Breaking even after 200 wagers is top shelf for some
I think her point is not that breaking even is top shelf at 200 plays, but 90% of people would either place to much per wager and be in the redor juice out and be in the red after 200 games.
I think her point is not that breaking even is top shelf at 200 plays, but 90% of people would either place to much per wager and be in the redor juice out and be in the red after 200 games.
Yes, 90% of recreational bettors get arrogant then get scared and lose. They also obsess, a la SJP.
So if this guy truly is a pro, he either manages his losses by 'reducing' his units, or by 'reducing' his number of plays, or preferably, by doing BOTH, none of which I see according to his secondary evidence / recordkeeping.
He's got 4 games for tomorrow He's already crowed he's a dime player, so he's laying 4K in the middle of a 'regression to the mean'. .
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Quote Originally Posted by Mikie2Times:
I think her point is not that breaking even is top shelf at 200 plays, but 90% of people would either place to much per wager and be in the redor juice out and be in the red after 200 games.
Yes, 90% of recreational bettors get arrogant then get scared and lose. They also obsess, a la SJP.
So if this guy truly is a pro, he either manages his losses by 'reducing' his units, or by 'reducing' his number of plays, or preferably, by doing BOTH, none of which I see according to his secondary evidence / recordkeeping.
He's got 4 games for tomorrow He's already crowed he's a dime player, so he's laying 4K in the middle of a 'regression to the mean'. .
It's difficult to say how exactly his money management should be with the information we have. If he's a dime player and has a 100k bankroll, 1% risk per is fairly conservative. He's regressing and many do reduce %'s in a regression. But whose to say it's to the mean? By my interactions with him, the way he conducts himself, write ups, pick history, his mean is above that of a standard player. So he could be very likely to be due for an upward trend soon.
I know if I'm offering plays I would tell somebody don't jump on after a 20-5 run. Jump on the first couple winning days after a 5-20 run. But you know how these swings are, timing them certainly isn't an exact science, the only science is they happen and will always happen. Just need to be defensive enough to survive them to profit at a further time.
As far as play volumes, if things really get bad I might take a day off. I think we all need a reset, it does the mind good. But if I'm playing, winning streak or losing streak I don't alter what I feel presents value. Now if he is chasing that's one thing, but I don't get that impression of him.
Sorry, I don't mean to play devils advocate to all your points because they certainly have validity, but I don't think as forum members we know enough about his personal circumstances to make assumptions on some of this stuff. He does a lot for the community here, and while my glass is usually half empty I think viewing this situation half full is more logical based on his body of work and the way he conducts himself.
Quote Originally Posted by NorthOf49Sports:
Yes, 90% of recreational bettors get arrogant then get scared and lose. They also obsess, a la SJP.
So if this guy truly is a pro, he either manages his losses by 'reducing' his units, or by 'reducing' his number of plays, or preferably, by doing BOTH, none of which I see according to his secondary evidence / recordkeeping.
He's got 4 games for tomorrow He's already crowed he's a dime player, so he's laying 4K in the middle of a 'regression to the mean'. .
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It's difficult to say how exactly his money management should be with the information we have. If he's a dime player and has a 100k bankroll, 1% risk per is fairly conservative. He's regressing and many do reduce %'s in a regression. But whose to say it's to the mean? By my interactions with him, the way he conducts himself, write ups, pick history, his mean is above that of a standard player. So he could be very likely to be due for an upward trend soon.
I know if I'm offering plays I would tell somebody don't jump on after a 20-5 run. Jump on the first couple winning days after a 5-20 run. But you know how these swings are, timing them certainly isn't an exact science, the only science is they happen and will always happen. Just need to be defensive enough to survive them to profit at a further time.
As far as play volumes, if things really get bad I might take a day off. I think we all need a reset, it does the mind good. But if I'm playing, winning streak or losing streak I don't alter what I feel presents value. Now if he is chasing that's one thing, but I don't get that impression of him.
Sorry, I don't mean to play devils advocate to all your points because they certainly have validity, but I don't think as forum members we know enough about his personal circumstances to make assumptions on some of this stuff. He does a lot for the community here, and while my glass is usually half empty I think viewing this situation half full is more logical based on his body of work and the way he conducts himself.
Quote Originally Posted by NorthOf49Sports:
Yes, 90% of recreational bettors get arrogant then get scared and lose. They also obsess, a la SJP.
So if this guy truly is a pro, he either manages his losses by 'reducing' his units, or by 'reducing' his number of plays, or preferably, by doing BOTH, none of which I see according to his secondary evidence / recordkeeping.
He's got 4 games for tomorrow He's already crowed he's a dime player, so he's laying 4K in the middle of a 'regression to the mean'. .
Yes, 90% of recreational bettors get arrogant then get scared and lose. They also obsess, a la SJP.
So if this guy truly is a pro, he either manages his losses by 'reducing' his units, or by 'reducing' his number of plays, or preferably, by doing BOTH, none of which I see according to his secondary evidence / recordkeeping.
He's got 4 games for tomorrow He's already crowed he's a dime player, so he's laying 4K in the middle of a 'regression to the mean'. .
It's difficult to say how exactly his money management should be with the information we have. If he's a dime player and has a 100k bankroll, 1% risk per is fairly conservative. He's regressing and many do reduce %'s in a regression. But whose to say it's to the mean? By my interactions with him, the way he conducts himself, write ups, pick history, his mean is above that of a standard player. So he could be very likely to be due for an upward trend soon.
I know if I'm offering plays I would tell somebody don't jump on after a 20-5 run. Jump on the first couple winning days after a 5-20 run. But you know how these swings are, timing them certainly isn't an exact science, the only science is they happen and will always happen. Just need to be defensive enough to survive them to profit at a further time.
As far as play volumes, if things really get bad I might take a day off. I think we all need a reset, it does the mind good. But if I'm playing, winning streak or losing streak I don't alter what I feel presents value. Now if he is chasing that's one thing, but I don't get that impression of him.
Sorry, I don't mean to play devils advocate to all your points because they certainly have validity, but I don't think as forum members we know enough about his personal circumstances to make assumptions on some of this stuff. He does a lot for the community here, and while my glass is usually half empty I think viewing this situation half full is more logical based on his body of work and the way he conducts himself.
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Quote Originally Posted by NorthOf49Sports:
Yes, 90% of recreational bettors get arrogant then get scared and lose. They also obsess, a la SJP.
So if this guy truly is a pro, he either manages his losses by 'reducing' his units, or by 'reducing' his number of plays, or preferably, by doing BOTH, none of which I see according to his secondary evidence / recordkeeping.
He's got 4 games for tomorrow He's already crowed he's a dime player, so he's laying 4K in the middle of a 'regression to the mean'. .
It's difficult to say how exactly his money management should be with the information we have. If he's a dime player and has a 100k bankroll, 1% risk per is fairly conservative. He's regressing and many do reduce %'s in a regression. But whose to say it's to the mean? By my interactions with him, the way he conducts himself, write ups, pick history, his mean is above that of a standard player. So he could be very likely to be due for an upward trend soon.
I know if I'm offering plays I would tell somebody don't jump on after a 20-5 run. Jump on the first couple winning days after a 5-20 run. But you know how these swings are, timing them certainly isn't an exact science, the only science is they happen and will always happen. Just need to be defensive enough to survive them to profit at a further time.
As far as play volumes, if things really get bad I might take a day off. I think we all need a reset, it does the mind good. But if I'm playing, winning streak or losing streak I don't alter what I feel presents value. Now if he is chasing that's one thing, but I don't get that impression of him.
Sorry, I don't mean to play devils advocate to all your points because they certainly have validity, but I don't think as forum members we know enough about his personal circumstances to make assumptions on some of this stuff. He does a lot for the community here, and while my glass is usually half empty I think viewing this situation half full is more logical based on his body of work and the way he conducts himself.
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Breaking even after 200 wagers is top shelf for some 
He's already crowed he's a dime player, so he's laying 4K in the middle of a 'regression to the mean'. 
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