Bodio's MLB Thur 06/30

BOL

Bol bodio! Love the parlay also.

GL Bodio

Don't think so.  I actually was done with my breakdowns and analysis early last night, versus my typical late AM.  Probably because there's less games on the slate. 

Here's some further analysis for you:

Yankees -- Wolf has a LD% of 25% with a GB/FB ratio of 0.9 and a fairly 'luck'y BABIP of .277 and E-F of -0.88.  Yankees are winning 62% of their games against lefty-starters over the years and Milwaukee is the 2nd worst road team in the league.

Tigers -- you'll hear people point out that Mets offense is 'hot' right now.  But look who they were going up against in the last 4 games:  Ogando (I've backed NYM in that game as Ogando's numbers were beginning to slip and he was due for major regression), Holland, Porcello, and Coke.  These are very mediocre pitchers with Ogando being the 'best' of the worst.  Verlander is in a completely different stratosphere here.  Let's not forget that Mets have an average offense and I see JV shutting them down.  One concern is the BP for the Tigers but Verlander has the ability to go 9 pretty much every time.  (I see him going 7/8 in this one).  Pelfrey is very mediocre with a #158 FIP ranking and #150 xFIP ranking (out of around 210 starting pitchers).  He's coming off 2 games with 'high' pitch counts compared to what he's used to and I expected Tigers' #5 ranked offense to be too much for him today.

White Sox -- I actually watched Peavy pitch last Saturday.  He looked great.  He's coming into this one on a regular 4 day rest so there is no issues.  Cook is mediocre at best at this point of his career.  Just a big different in starting pitching in this one at pretty much 'even' odds.

Phillies + UNDER -- Hamels has the 4th best FIP, 3rd best xFIP, and 3rd best tERA.  That's pretty impressive.  He's the 2nd best pitcher after Halladay according to advanced stats.  Lester has the 119th FIP and 101st tERA.  His xFIP is #45 which is very good of course, but not as good as Hamels.  Both pitchers should be successful here IMO.  With Boston struggling to score runs in inter-league away games, I'd be very surprised if they all of a sudden 'woke' up against a stud pitcher like Hamels.

PIT/TOR OVER -- 2 very mediocre pitchers on the mound here.  3rd best 'hitters' park.  Average bullpens.  Posted total is below a 'key' # of 9.  I have this one at 11.2 runs. 

Hope this additional breakdown helps.  Good luck

none taken

Whoo hooo!  Top 10% Nice! 

Hope so too, but then again I've been saying it for a couple of weeks now.  Good luck to you today too Mike!

bodio dont listen to some of these guys...mlb season is a long haul!!!! and i dont see no one else here who can top your write ups and stats.. you are very valuable here on covers brother to many of us... i always like to read your stuff!!!!  there just jealous !!!!!! i have known many cappers who have had a losing season but still walk away ahead at the end.. its called money managemnet!!!!! and not always picking dogs like i have a problem doing... best of luck today my brother!!!!

Hey, Bodio

been following your picks for some time now.  Keep up the great work, bro!  In the meantime, here's an interesting piece on top six hitting ballparks so far this year.  You may already know all this, but I figure it doesn't hurt to post it.  Cheers, bro!  KD

 

By Jeff Rake

If 2010 was the Year of the Pitcher, then 2011 might be the Year of the Shutout.
Offense in Major League Baseball is down once again, with teams producing fewer runs and home runs than last year, which was lower than the year before that, which was lower than the year before that.
It's no secret that baseball is offensively challenged. Most offensive categories are at their lowest point since the early 1990s. As Sports Illustrated baseball writer Tom Verducci declared in a May article, "The pitching duel has replaced the slugfest."
Even so, some ballparks are immune to the low-scoring trends and produce runs at a much better rate than the others. Here is a look at the top 6 run-scoring ballparks in baseball:
1. Ballpark in Arlington, 10.61 runs per game
The Ballpark in Arlington is behind its 2008 pace, when it yielded more runs per game (12.30) than any other stadium. But the Rangers have been lights out at home, scoring 5.40 runs per game compared to an average of four runs per game on the road.
Texas' OPS (on base + slugging percent) of .831 is considerably higher than its .680 road OPS, and the Rangers have also hit more than twice as many home runs at home (60) than they have on the road (26) in three fewer games.
The over is 24-14 in Rangers home games.
2. Coors Field, 10.45 runs per game
It shouldn't be a surprise to see the Colorado Rockies' home park on this list given the altitude factor in Denver. Since 2006, Coors Field has been one of the four highest-scoring ballparks each year and was the highest-scoring park the last two years.
Colorado has scored 202 runs in 38 home games, but just 135 runs in its 37 road games. Rockies pitching hasn't helped matters, allowing an average of 5.13 runs per game at home.
The over is 23-15 in Rockies home games.
3. Fenway Park, 10.37 runs per game
The Red Sox are outscoring opponents 5.53 to 4.84 at home, and they have scored more runs at Fenway than they have on the road despite hitting eight fewer home runs.
Boston has a higher home batting average (.298) and OPS (.836) than any other team on this list, and odds are good that those numbers will improve as the season progresses. Remember, the Red Sox were one of the slowest starting teams in the league this year, posting an 11-15 record through April as their bats struggled.
Now, as the weather continues to warm up, Boston is having no trouble scoring runs. The Red Sox have scored 10 or more runs in three of their last six home games.
The over is 23-15 in Red Sox home games.
4. Rogers Centre, 10.09 runs per game
Toronto is the only team on the list that has allowed more runs at home than it has scored, which might help explain why the Rogers Centre was able to crack the top 6.
However, the Blue Jays have only hosted the Yankees and Red Sox a total of seven times so far. With 11 of their final 44 home games after the All-Star break against those two teams, it's reasonable to think the scoring average could increase by season's end.
The over is 20-15 in Blue Jays home games.
5. Great American Ball Park, 9.76 runs per game
Given its reputation as one of the league's most hitter-friendly venues, you'd think Great American Ball Park would appear on this list more often. However, the Reds' home stadium has only cracked the top 6 once over the last five years, and that was in 2007 when they averaged 10.56 runs per game.
Cincinnati's offense is doing its part, scoring 5.22 runs per game on average. But Reds pitching, despite allowing the second-most home runs in the National League, has a very respectable 4.20 home ERA.
The over is 24-17 in Reds home games.
6. Chase Field, 9.64 runs per game
The Arizona Diamondbacks considered installing a humidor for the 2011 season, but the front office ultimately decided against it. Good thing, because Chase Field would have transformed from one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks into one of the league's more pitcher-friendly venues.
Arizona outscores opponents by an average of 4.87 to 4.77 at home, and the ballpark has yielded 94 home runs in just 39 games so far in 2011.
The over is 18-21 in D-Backs home games.

bol bodio

Great work yet again Bo.  Does the wind blowing out @ Coors field concern you at all? That may favor Cook much more than it does Peavy, given their batted ball peripherals.

w-sox

keep on doing what youre doing brother.

lets get them units up!

BOL

I've never tailed you before Bodio, but certainly respect your long-term track record. Our picks mesh today, as I have the Yanks, Phils and Tigers, with a parlay on the 3, as well as another with the Yanks, Phils and A's. Love your card. Best of luck today buddy.

first off he has not reched 200 games, second off, he is in the positive, even though its not much, its still a profit, so youre statement is pointless.... oh and i dont know if you know this but if i recall... his record a while into the NBA regular season was somewhere around or a little less than 50% and i believe he was actually - a few units, he didnt stop though,.... oh and just so you know it turned out to be a pretty good decision. its all about money management... and hes one of the best.

Great card and GL Bodiooooo

BOL TODAY

gl Bodio.....

Still can't understand why ppl hate on yur analysis Bodio. You supply prob the best info this site has to offer and am positive that 99% of us really appreciate all yur hard work. There will always be that 1% out there. Keep up te great work!