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Bodio's MLB Thur 09/22

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Posted: #101

bwahahahahaha!!!!!

 
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Posted: #102

didnt like any of your picks today but tailed you on the rays after seeing the nyy line-up.

 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by efro:

i kinda think you're missing the mark on the motivation angle. i'm the biggest mets fan there is and yet i still hope they lose to try to knock the braves out of the playoffs. it's not pujols swinging the bat harder or reyes running slower, it's the pitchers not caring as much about getting out of tough jams because their season isn't on the line. it's not going all out after fly balls or diving to stop a ball in the infield because there's absolutely no reason to risk injury. the mets might legitimately prefer losing in this spot, and so while they may win, there are certainly other factors at work.


Hmm.. I hope you saw that diving catch to end the game by the Met outfielder.  He went 'all out' to get that one.  You can't tell me that players on the field don't care.  No matter what the situation is, players care about winning and I truly believe that! (for the most part of course...you'll always have a couple of jack-asses who are on cruise control).  NFL, NBA, College, MLB -- no matter who is on the field/court they care about winning the game.  Maybe the owner wants their own team to lose for a better draft pick, maybe the fans -- but I believe that the players on the field want to win at all times.  If I didn't, I probably wouldn't be investing in the sports market in the first place.
 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

2011 MLB Record:
190 - 150 @ 56% for +20.55 Units




Thur 09/22

#1: New York Mets +185



Holy shit fellas!  This one deserves a
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

#3: Tampa Bay Rays -150

Will back the Rays again in this spot. They have their stud pitcher on the mound and a very strong lineup. Yankees are resting some 'key' players and will be very weak defensively (No Cano, no Tex on defense..he's DHing, no Gardner, no Granderson).

good luck


By the way, I hope some people are watching this Moore kid for the Rays.  He's got electric stuff!  Already got 9 K's through 4 innings.  Yes I know this is not the 'best' Yankee lineup out there, but it's close to an average MLB lineup for New York. 

Either way, I don't watch a lot of MLB games but definitely wanted to see Moore pitch today.  He's not as hyped up as Strasburg was last year but he has just as filthy stuff! 
 
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Posted: #106
Nice job today brother how good u feel about the SF tonight..................
 
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Posted: #107

Bodio,

Most of my efforts go to CFB this time of year, but I wish I had checked in today.  The TB/Yanks game also is also a huge spot where NY went out to celebrate last night, and maybe the topic came up that they would MUCH rather play TB in the playoffs than Boston.  Rare that a team gets a freebie in MLB, but if it ever was in play it's the Rays tonight.  Looks like they will win by 2 TD's at this point!   Wish I had gotten in on it.

Nice pick, and solid work as always..

 
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Posted: #108
awesome !!
 
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Posted: #109
Hey bodio So far i have had a good day today and my only play left is the giants both SU and in  a parlay im a small ball guy but i occasional unload on some of your plays ( ive been one of your followers for some time now). Do you have any advance stats that could solidify this pick ? Feel like puting at least half of my earnings today on Giants 
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

2011 MLB Record:
190 - 150 @ 56% for +20.55 Units




Thur 09/22

#1: New York Mets +185

We have one team that is fighting for the playoffs and another one that knows their season is over. But this is baseball, and motivation is not really going to make someone perform better than normal. It's no like Albert Pujols is going to swing his bat harder or Jose Reyes is going to run slower. If you cap based on motivation in baseball that you probably lost a lot of $ in that Red Sox / Orioles game last night. Both of these teams are very similar in terms of hitting, fielding, and bullpen. The big difference is that we have a better overall starting pitcher in Capuano (according to both advanced and standard stats actually). This game is closer to 50/50, and according to my model has New York winning this one 52% of the time. Current odds of -200 or so have St Louis winning this game 67% and New York 33%. Something is very 'off' here.

#2: San Francisco Giants -105

BumG has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in the last month or so (him and Vazquez for the Marlins). I backed him in his last start against Kuroda a couple of weeks ago and I see no reason not to do so again in this spot. Sandoval should be back in the lineup for San Fran, who have a bunch of left-handed options available to them. Kuroda has a 4.09 xFIP against lefties and I expect him to get 'hit' again by the Giants tonight.

======================================

I was going to make UNDER 9 in the CHW/CLE game as my 3rd play today but most of the places have it at 8.5 now. My model has that one at 7.5 total runs and 10 would be needed for this wager to lose. If you can find 9 at decent odds somewhere (maybe a local) I'd play it.

Good luck!

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

-----------------------------------
TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580




"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"



RESPECT BODIO.
 
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Posted: #111
Bodio gonna join ya on SF    
 
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Posted: #112
GREAT PICKS MAN, IM EARLY ON METS BUT, CHANGE MY MIND FOR OAKLAND.... YOU ARE ON BOTH EXCELLENT CAPPING!
 
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Posted: #113
got burned on the chw/under. ouch.
 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by ILLEST_Bettor:

Hey bodio So far i have had a good day today and my only play left is the giants both SU and in  a parlay im a small ball guy but i occasional unload on some of your plays ( ive been one of your followers for some time now). Do you have any advance stats that could solidify this pick ? Feel like puting at least half of my earnings today on Giants 


Stay disciplined.  Any bet could lose. 
The reason I like San Fran today is BumG -- the guy is a stud.  You can see my 'breakdowns' for his advanced stats but bottom line is that he's one of the top 10 pitchers in the league this year!  Kuroda is fairly decent as well but he really struggles against lefties (xFIP over 4)  San Fran will have Beltran, Sandoval, Huff, Belt, and Crawford batting 3 through 7 today -- all are lefties.  I think Giants have an excellent chance to win this game.  I've been backing BumG for awhile now and he's 'cash-money' -- no reason to stop now.  Good luck
 
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Posted: #115
ha nice Mets win guy! go SF!
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:



Stay disciplined.  Any bet could lose. 
The reason I like San Fran today is BumG -- the guy is a stud.  You can see my 'breakdowns' for his advanced stats but bottom line is that he's one of the top 10 pitchers in the league this year!  Kuroda is fairly decent as well but he really struggles against lefties (xFIP over 4)  San Fran will have Beltran, Sandoval, Huff, Belt, and Crawford batting 3 through 7 today -- all are lefties.  I think Giants have an excellent chance to win this game.  I've been backing BumG for awhile now and he's 'cash-money' -- no reason to stop now.  Good luck


Thanks for the Reply Bodio, I will stay discipline and not "unload" on this game but i will add a bit more to it maybe just 20 % of my earning today. Nice job On mets and GL on San Fran.

P.S. I know you have been backing the Dolphins in NFL and im glad to see that Because I am a Dolphins fan and it gives me hope. But besides the fact they have been losing you money I really suggest you take them +3 this sunday people are going to think you are crazy but Trust me SPARANO CANT LOSE THIS GAME IF HE WANTS TO BE EMPLOYED. Back against the wall plus 3 against the browns ont he road ( dolphins very good road team). JUST MY OPINION but GL 
 
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Posted: #117
Bodio got SF at 133
 
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Posted: #118
 
 
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Posted: #119
U MAN
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


the Yankees
ANOTHER RING
 
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Posted: #121

I'm sayin this now as my mother "MIGHT" have dropped me on my head a few times while growing up.........

If the Tigers start Verlander in game 2 of the first series (against WHOEVER they play)...The Tigers win the World Series...Porcello gm 1, then Verlander, Fister, Sherzer (in the 4th gm against the other tms 4th starter who is either Wakefield or Lackey if Lackey doesn't pitch game 3 against Fister???? or Colon or Burnett for the Yanks????)...the Tigers have a more than legitimate chance....I would take the Tigers over the Yanks right now imo....but I'm just a guy who follows you Bodio most of the time, and who is acting as if he should be Jim Leyland.

 
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Posted: #122
nice hit on the mets, was on it as well!
 
 
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Posted: #123
RESPECT ON THE METS I HAD THE CARD AT FIRST SLAMMED 4 DIMES ON IT -210 JUICE....GOT SHOOKED AFTER THE LONG DELAY DECIDED TO GO ALONG WITH YOU ON THE METS AFTER ALL....BUT ONLY AFTER I SAW HOW THE TWINS AND OAKLAND WAS WINNING SOO I FIGURED UNDERDOGS INTHE EARLY GAMES...GLAD IT WAS A VERY LONG DELAY FOR ME TO REVERSE BET SLAMMED 5K +175....END UP WINNING A MESSLY 3 BILLS....AT LEAST IT WAS NOT MINUS ANYWAYS THNX BODIO
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