Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
72 - 52 @ 57% for +15.20 Units
Wed, 06/01
#1: Philadelphia Phillies -150
Much better starting pitcher on the mound for the Phils. Advanced stats confirm that. What stands out is Oswalt's 3.16 tERA (#25th) compared to 4.73 tERA for Lannan (#115th). I expect Phillis bats to him Lannan hard today. Oswalt has only given up 3 ER's in his last 3 starts, spanning 18 innings. He's faced Washington 3 times in 2010, allowing 13 hits, 0 HR's, and only 1 ER in 18 innings of work. He had 18 K's to 4 BB's in those outings. Truly dominant performances. Lannan, on the other hand, is 0-10 (team is 1-12) when facing Philadelphia in his career with an ERA of 6.44 and WHIP of 1.7 I know all trends come to an end eventually, but I don't think it will be today. Phils are 12-4 in day games this year, 13-4 against a lefty-starter, and 8-4 in their last 12 games. Nats are only 8-13 in day games this year and yesterday was only their 3rd win in the last 13 games. I expect them to go back to their losing ways today.
#2: UNDER 7 BAL/SEA -125
Matusz is making his season debut for the O's and he is potentially their best pitcher. He's never faced Seattle before so he'll have an advantage early, especially since the Mariners are averaging 3.3 rpg on .222 BA against lefty starters. Pineda is on the mound for the Mariners and we all know by now that the guy is a stud. His advanced stats are excellent. Pineda did face O's earlier this season giving up 7 hits and 3 ER's in 6 innings, but I expect him to perform much better today, as that start was on the road. Neither team is hitting the ball well as Baltimore is averaging 2.6 rpg in their last 5, while Seattle is at 3.4 rpg in the same time-span. The O/U is 3-6 in this matchup in Seattle over the last couple of seasons and I like this one to stay UNDER as well.
#3: Milwaukee Brewers -101
Similar analysis here as yesterday for the same matchup. Milwaukee has an advantage in starting pitching and bullpens in this one. Marcum has a 2.85 FIP (#23) and 3.20 xFIP (#24). He has an excellent 3.02 tERA (#20) and 3.94 K/BB ratioi. Leake comes in with 4.06 FIP (#96) and 3.67 xFIP (#67). His tERA of 5.01 (#128) is much worse as is his 2.13 K/BB ratio. Marcum is coming off a poor outing where he gave up 5 ER's to the Giants. I actually backed him in that game, and remember Marcum cruising along until the 6th, where a GS did him (and me) in. I expect a 'bounce back' performance tonight. Leake is coming off his first start since April. Even though he only allowed 1 ER in 6 innings of work, he wasn't very good. He issued 7 hits and 3 BB's in those 6 innings, and was very lucky to only allow 1. I don't expect him to have the same 'luck' against one of the best lineups in the league today. Keep in mind that Cincy is 3-11 in their last 14 games while Milwaukee is 11-3 in the same time-span. I'l back a team with better pitching, which is playing much better 'ball' right now.
I've done the preliminary research on the following games, but need to take a look at them one more time prior to pulling the trigger. These are my 'strong leans' for the rest of the day. I'll post any additional plays later today:
OVER 8.5 CLE/TOR
Arizona Diamondbacks -155
OVER 7 COL/LAD
Good luck!
72 - 52 @ 57% for +15.20 Units
Wed, 06/01
#1: Philadelphia Phillies -150
Much better starting pitcher on the mound for the Phils. Advanced stats confirm that. What stands out is Oswalt's 3.16 tERA (#25th) compared to 4.73 tERA for Lannan (#115th). I expect Phillis bats to him Lannan hard today. Oswalt has only given up 3 ER's in his last 3 starts, spanning 18 innings. He's faced Washington 3 times in 2010, allowing 13 hits, 0 HR's, and only 1 ER in 18 innings of work. He had 18 K's to 4 BB's in those outings. Truly dominant performances. Lannan, on the other hand, is 0-10 (team is 1-12) when facing Philadelphia in his career with an ERA of 6.44 and WHIP of 1.7 I know all trends come to an end eventually, but I don't think it will be today. Phils are 12-4 in day games this year, 13-4 against a lefty-starter, and 8-4 in their last 12 games. Nats are only 8-13 in day games this year and yesterday was only their 3rd win in the last 13 games. I expect them to go back to their losing ways today.
#2: UNDER 7 BAL/SEA -125
Matusz is making his season debut for the O's and he is potentially their best pitcher. He's never faced Seattle before so he'll have an advantage early, especially since the Mariners are averaging 3.3 rpg on .222 BA against lefty starters. Pineda is on the mound for the Mariners and we all know by now that the guy is a stud. His advanced stats are excellent. Pineda did face O's earlier this season giving up 7 hits and 3 ER's in 6 innings, but I expect him to perform much better today, as that start was on the road. Neither team is hitting the ball well as Baltimore is averaging 2.6 rpg in their last 5, while Seattle is at 3.4 rpg in the same time-span. The O/U is 3-6 in this matchup in Seattle over the last couple of seasons and I like this one to stay UNDER as well.
#3: Milwaukee Brewers -101
Similar analysis here as yesterday for the same matchup. Milwaukee has an advantage in starting pitching and bullpens in this one. Marcum has a 2.85 FIP (#23) and 3.20 xFIP (#24). He has an excellent 3.02 tERA (#20) and 3.94 K/BB ratioi. Leake comes in with 4.06 FIP (#96) and 3.67 xFIP (#67). His tERA of 5.01 (#128) is much worse as is his 2.13 K/BB ratio. Marcum is coming off a poor outing where he gave up 5 ER's to the Giants. I actually backed him in that game, and remember Marcum cruising along until the 6th, where a GS did him (and me) in. I expect a 'bounce back' performance tonight. Leake is coming off his first start since April. Even though he only allowed 1 ER in 6 innings of work, he wasn't very good. He issued 7 hits and 3 BB's in those 6 innings, and was very lucky to only allow 1. I don't expect him to have the same 'luck' against one of the best lineups in the league today. Keep in mind that Cincy is 3-11 in their last 14 games while Milwaukee is 11-3 in the same time-span. I'l back a team with better pitching, which is playing much better 'ball' right now.
I've done the preliminary research on the following games, but need to take a look at them one more time prior to pulling the trigger. These are my 'strong leans' for the rest of the day. I'll post any additional plays later today:
OVER 8.5 CLE/TOR
Arizona Diamondbacks -155
OVER 7 COL/LAD
Good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
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'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
0
Keep it up Bo!
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