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Bodio's MLB Wed 06/01

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topshow

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Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 5:55 PM ET #76

great write ups bo good luck tonight any views on the nhl finals

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nepatriots_12

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Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 5:59 PM ET #77

gl buddy....barring a miracle looks like a 1-1 start for today...let's end it with a bang!

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bodio

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Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 6:36 PM ET #78

Quote Originally Posted by topshow:

great write ups bo good luck tonight any views on the nhl finals

Passing today..Nothing qualifies in NHL today. I follow the odds movement when betting NHL and don't cap the matchups in detail..pretty selective but it's been working.

Like Vancouver to win it all but the odds are pretty juiced up for that. GL

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bodio

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Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 6:37 PM ET #79

Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

gl buddy....barring a miracle looks like a 1-1 start for today...let's end it with a bang!

Yeah, didn't expect Phillies to only score 1 run. Oswalt did his thing again today. On to the late games! GL buddy

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bodio

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Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 6:37 PM ET #80

#2: UNDER 7 BAL/SEA -125

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pinballwizard

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Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 6:39 PM ET #81

Nice hit there Bodio. Keep 'em coming.

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nepatriots_12

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Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 6:55 PM ET #82

Bodio, Sportswagers.ca has a writeup on the Reds today....they're pretty decent at MLB, mainly play dogs and "value" favs...I'll paste it here in case you want to read it...for what it's worth, their other play today is the Dbacks -1.5

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nepatriots_12

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Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 6:55 PM ET #83

The Brewers look rather tempting with Shaun Marcum going against Mike Leake, especially since the Reds are favored but a close look reveals that Milwaukee is really not that appealing at all. For one, they’ve lost 21 of their last 26 against Cinci and overall the Crew have won just nine of 27 road games. Marcum is 6-2 with an ERA of 2.80 and that looks pretty sweet on paper. However, Marcum has had a whole slew of favorable starts that include games in Pittsburgh, Houston, Atlanta and L.A and home starts v Atlanta, Houston, San Diego, Colorado and San Fran. You may not find a pitcher in the Majors with an easier schedule. Now things get much tougher for Marcum because he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 34%/20%/46% GB/LD/FB profile and at this park, that’s a problem waiting to happen. The last time he pitched at Great American, Marcum didn’t make it out of the fifth inning and a repeat of that here would not surprise. He’s also been aided by a strand rate of 77%. Leake replaced Homer Bailey in the rotation. He had six tough starts on the surface earlier this year (5.70) that earned him his Triple-A ticket. But underneath, he showed very good skills (high strikeout rate, good control and a 3.84 xERA), and he now gets another shot. Leake came in last season with zero minor league experience and more than held his own in majors. He was shut down in August after hit%, hr/f led to 12.41 ERA in last four outings. Expect some growing pains, but GB%, good command and low IP bode well for future. He held his own in 2010 (8-4, 4.23 ERA) and in one start v the Brewers he struck out six, walked none and surrendered two runs in seven full. Milwaukee looks like the play on paper but underneath the Reds offer the true value at a short price at home. Play: Cincinnati –109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

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NOmoose

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Posts: 5789

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 8:10 PM ET #84

lol thanks bodio for the over in the cleveland game, only took 3 innings WOW

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bodio

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Posts: 7370

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 8:21 PM ET #85

#4: OVER 9 CLE/TOR -125

Wish I could take some of these runs and give them to the Diamondbacks

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nepatriots_12

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Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 8:25 PM ET #86

Sportswagers

Nice hit on that over early...and Brewers look good. Too bad Hudson blows. Hopefully the Rockies/Dodgers Over hits for a + day...

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composite

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Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 8:25 PM ET #87

Great call, bodio...

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nepatriots_12

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Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 8:26 PM ET #88

and LOL@Drabek....just got murdered early, no wonder you always fade this guy Bo

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5t4r5align

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Posts: 9543

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 9:24 PM ET #89

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

#4: OVER 9 CLE/TOR -125

Wish I could take some of these runs and give them to the Diamondbacks

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5t4r5align

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Posts: 9543

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 9:27 PM ET #90

Quote Originally Posted by neonkion:

lol, thats like shaquille o neal trying to give ray allen advice on shooting free throws

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NOmoose

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Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 9:27 PM ET #91

nepatrots - who is that in your avatar?

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nepatriots_12

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Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 9:42 PM ET #92

Brewers

another collapse by these clowns

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eknilb

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Posts: 1175

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 9:51 PM ET #93

hey bodio regarding your nhl capping....wouldnt the same odd movement theory work with mlb? or do u believe those odd movement are just based on sharps money for mlb?

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eknilb

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Posts: 1175

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 9:53 PM ET #94

based on odds movement today there was reverse odd movement on philly, brewers, and the total for toronto and all hit based on betting against the movement same as your nhl capping system?

please educate me on this

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Werker

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Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 3640

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 9:59 PM ET #95

I know you're a winning capper, and I obviously give you respect by tailing you, but whenever I do tail you, which is random days where I don't even want to do research but still want a little action, I end up with one of your losing days. This fucking sucks. I swear, I think I must be like 5-30 when I tail you. (I didn't see your late plays, which at least started out good.)

...Maybe I should just tell you when I am tailing you so you can bet back against yourself.

So annoying.

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nepatriots_12

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Posts: 2304

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 10:34 PM ET #96

I hate pushes. Wish I laid the juice but it's easy to say that after the fact.

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gcnmoo

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Posts: 5202

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 10:43 PM ET #97

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

Additional plays for today:

#4: OVER 9 CLE/TOR -125

This total started flying on me and I couldn't catch it at 8.5 That's what happens when you put away handicapping till later. Lines/totals move. I'm still comfortable taking this one at OVER 9, but the 'hook' is a bit tougher to take. Either way, advanced stats show us that both Tomlin and Drabek are very mediocre pitchers. Tombin has a FIP of 4.42 (#117) and xFIP 3.89 (#91). His extremely lucky BABIP of .197 and E-F of -1.68 (4th highest to the negative) indicate that major regression is in order. He's coming into this one after an outing where he gave up 10 hits and 2 HR's in only 6 innings pitched. Surprisingly, he only gave up 4 ER's, part of it due to NOT walking any batter. Still, he threw 109 pitches in that one, 2nd most in his short career. I expect him to struggle against a Jays lineup that has hit double-digits in hits for 5 straight games. Opposite, Tomlin is Drabek, who is a 'WALK-machine'. Jays' hitters have the 5th best BB/K ratio and I expect them to be very patient today. Drabek has stats which are even worse than Tomlin's, with 4.89 FIP (#137) and 4.82 xFIP (#148). His .283 BABIP (a tad lucky) and -0.72 E-F indicate that regression is in order, especially after an outing in which he threw 121 pitches, the most of his short career. Why not against a Cleveland team that has found it's offensive groove last night with Sizemore back in the lineup? I also want to point out that both of these starting pitchers have tERA's over 5.3, which are some of the worst in the league. I expect both offenses to get to them today. Finally, neither BP is that great and both teams rank in the bottom-half from the standpoint of fielding, based on UZR. With the wind blowing out today, I expect this one to go OVER tonight.

#5: Arizona Diamondbacks -1 RL (-118)

I'll play this one at -1 RL to minimize the juice, but I like the Diamondbacks to get this final game of a 3-game series with the Marlins. Diamondbacks are better in all facets of the game: hitting, relief pitching, and fielding. At the same time, we have a huge discrepancy in starting pitching as well. Hudson with a 2.61 FIp (#12) and 3.39 xFIP (#40), with an unlucky .336 BABIP and very solid 3.37 K/BB ratio is facing off against Vazquez with some of the worst #'s in the league: 5.07 FIP, 5.29 xFIP, .287 BABIP (lucky) and a mediocre 1.11 K/BB ratio. There's also a huge discrepancy in tERA's: 3.1 to 5.2. Hudson is coming off a poor outing and I expect him to rebound here tonight. Keep in mind that Arizona is 12-2 in their last 14 games, and they'll be facing a Ramirez-less Florida squad that is playing their last game of a 9-game roadie. I see a Diamondbacks' rout in this one.

#6: OVER 7 COL/LAD -105

Jimenez is just not the same pitcher he was last year. His advanced stats confirm that, and even though he should improve over his current numbers, his velocity is down this year and his K/BB ratio of 1.50 is the lowest of his career. Something is really off with him, and going up against a Dodgers lineup that is hitting the ball really well lately is not going to be the answer today. Jimenez has an ERA of 5.22 and WHIP of 1.5 against the Dodgers, with the O/U at 11-3 in his starts against LA. Garland is nothing special either, and in his 3 starts against Colorado last year he gave up 19 hits and 7 ER's in 17 innings. He had 16 K's to 6 BB's in those starts. Giving up 7 ER's in those starts was a bit low, but I expect the Rockies hitters to get to him today as they bat over .300 life-time against him. With a mediocre BP behind him, LA should give up some runs. The O/U is 6-2 in COL games where the total is 7 or less and 17-12 in LAD games in the same totals-range. With not much wind in the forecast (5 mph OUT) I like this one to go OVER tonight as my model has this one at 8.7 total runs.

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400

--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330

"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."

I have a feeling you're using the wrong park factor for dodger stadium if you're getting a total of 8.7 runs. It is also a cool night, so you need to drop the park factor even lower.

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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

Additional plays for today:

#4: OVER 9 CLE/TOR -125

This total started flying on me and I couldn't catch it at 8.5 That's what happens when you put away handicapping till later. Lines/totals move. I'm still comfortable taking this one at OVER 9, but the 'hook' is a bit tougher to take. Either way, advanced stats show us that both Tomlin and Drabek are very mediocre pitchers. Tombin has a FIP of 4.42 (#117) and xFIP 3.89 (#91). His extremely lucky BABIP of .197 and E-F of -1.68 (4th highest to the negative) indicate that major regression is in order. He's coming into this one after an outing where he gave up 10 hits and 2 HR's in only 6 innings pitched. Surprisingly, he only gave up 4 ER's, part of it due to NOT walking any batter. Still, he threw 109 pitches in that one, 2nd most in his short career. I expect him to struggle against a Jays lineup that has hit double-digits in hits for 5 straight games. Opposite, Tomlin is Drabek, who is a 'WALK-machine'. Jays' hitters have the 5th best BB/K ratio and I expect them to be very patient today. Drabek has stats which are even worse than Tomlin's, with 4.89 FIP (#137) and 4.82 xFIP (#148). His .283 BABIP (a tad lucky) and -0.72 E-F indicate that regression is in order, especially after an outing in which he threw 121 pitches, the most of his short career. Why not against a Cleveland team that has found it's offensive groove last night with Sizemore back in the lineup? I also want to point out that both of these starting pitchers have tERA's over 5.3, which are some of the worst in the league. I expect both offenses to get to them today. Finally, neither BP is that great and both teams rank in the bottom-half from the standpoint of fielding, based on UZR. With the wind blowing out today, I expect this one to go OVER tonight.

#5: Arizona Diamondbacks -1 RL (-118)

I'll play this one at -1 RL to minimize the juice, but I like the Diamondbacks to get this final game of a 3-game series with the Marlins. Diamondbacks are better in all facets of the game: hitting, relief pitching, and fielding. At the same time, we have a huge discrepancy in starting pitching as well. Hudson with a 2.61 FIp (#12) and 3.39 xFIP (#40), with an unlucky .336 BABIP and very solid 3.37 K/BB ratio is facing off against Vazquez with some of the worst #'s in the league: 5.07 FIP, 5.29 xFIP, .287 BABIP (lucky) and a mediocre 1.11 K/BB ratio. There's also a huge discrepancy in tERA's: 3.1 to 5.2. Hudson is coming off a poor outing and I expect him to rebound here tonight. Keep in mind that Arizona is 12-2 in their last 14 games, and they'll be facing a Ramirez-less Florida squad that is playing their last game of a 9-game roadie. I see a Diamondbacks' rout in this one.

#6: OVER 7 COL/LAD -105

Jimenez is just not the same pitcher he was last year. His advanced stats confirm that, and even though he should improve over his current numbers, his velocity is down this year and his K/BB ratio of 1.50 is the lowest of his career. Something is really off with him, and going up against a Dodgers lineup that is hitting the ball really well lately is not going to be the answer today. Jimenez has an ERA of 5.22 and WHIP of 1.5 against the Dodgers, with the O/U at 11-3 in his starts against LA. Garland is nothing special either, and in his 3 starts against Colorado last year he gave up 19 hits and 7 ER's in 17 innings. He had 16 K's to 6 BB's in those starts. Giving up 7 ER's in those starts was a bit low, but I expect the Rockies hitters to get to him today as they bat over .300 life-time against him. With a mediocre BP behind him, LA should give up some runs. The O/U is 6-2 in COL games where the total is 7 or less and 17-12 in LAD games in the same totals-range. With not much wind in the forecast (5 mph OUT) I like this one to go OVER tonight as my model has this one at 8.7 total runs.

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400

--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330

"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."

I have a feeling you're using the wrong park factor for dodger stadium if you're getting a total of 8.7 runs. It is also a cool night, so you need to drop the park factor even lower.

gcnmoo

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2005

Posts: 5202

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 11:07 PM ET #98

i should also note that I leaned towards the over as well and had the total at 7.54 runs...

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NYBartender

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 5370

Posted: Jun. 2, 2011 - 2:40 AM ET #99

I guess that write up just pissed off Jimenez! Sheesh!

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tonyperaino

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2004

Posts: 2379

Posted: Jun. 3, 2011 - 12:22 AM ET #100

no plays for thursday !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Bodio's MLB Wed 06/01

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