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Bodio's MLB Wed 06/01

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Posts: 100

Forty7

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 1677

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 12:16 PM ET #51

GL my friend

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The_True

Banned

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 1981

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 12:18 PM ET #52

Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

Man up and hit it again

no funds; account is on autoreload 2k every week
down 400 right now (nba and mlb chokejobs) so 1.6k in bets alrdy locked up
got 4$ available (lol)

cant believe mavs didnt cover 5 last night..lost 92-84 wtfinghell

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yellow-C6

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2011

Posts: 67

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 12:19 PM ET #53

Good Luck

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5t4r5align

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 9543

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 12:21 PM ET #54

Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

Washington opened at +150 at some books ...down to around 130-135 and lower. Serious ROM with the public on Philly @ 90%. I'm sitting this one out today.

I take that back. I jumped on the over when it was steamed to 8. Its @ 8.5 now. I'm with you on the other two picks. Was too late to jump on the Tor over. Waited too long b/c I didn't like the ump for the over. But anyway, no one cares what I have to say... Let's do this today Bo!

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 12:22 PM ET #55

Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

Washington opened at +150 at some books ...down to around 130-135 and lower. Serious ROM with the public on Philly @ 90%. I'm sitting this one out today.

gotcha. Sorry. I saw it go down from -146 to like -140 and didn't think it was anything but the Rollins injury.

Yeah, looks like some sharpies could be on the Nats here. Hopefully Phils pull it out

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 12:23 PM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

I take that back. I jumped on the over when it was steamed to 8. Its @ 8.5 now. I'm with you on the other two picks. Was too late to jump on the Tor over. Waited too long b/c I didn't like the ump for the over. But anyway, no one cares what I have to say... Let's do this today Bo!

that Tor Over moved quick eh?

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5t4r5align

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 9543

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 12:30 PM ET #57

too quick for me to get my bet in at 8.5... I missed 9 too

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wmi799

Legend

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 33070

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 12:33 PM ET #58

Good luck today Bodio. Nice call on the Brew Crew yesterday!

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad

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The_True

Banned

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 1981

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 12:35 PM ET #59

tor at 9.5 is goin to probably drop back to 9
i still think the game goes under
the wind right now may be 20mph but in 7 hrs it probably wont be

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yogz1

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 1215

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 12:36 PM ET #60

gl amigo.....

get that coin Bodio.....

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 12:56 PM ET #61

Quote Originally Posted by The_True:

tor at 9.5 is goin to probably drop back to 9
i still think the game goes under
the wind right now may be 20mph but in 7 hrs it probably wont be

Why do you like the UNDER in that one?

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cubicman

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2010

Posts: 18598

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 12:56 PM ET #62

BODIO !!

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ionutt79

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 952

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 2:59 PM ET #63

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5t4r5align

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 9543

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 3:34 PM ET #64

Quote Originally Posted by The_True:

tor at 9.5 is goin to probably drop back to 9
i still think the game goes under
the wind right now may be 20mph but in 7 hrs it probably wont be

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brent0887

MVP

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 19355

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 3:41 PM ET #65

GL tonight Bodio

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PatternBettor

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 2096

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 4:02 PM ET #66

good luck

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 4:25 PM ET #67

#1: Philadelphia Phillies -150

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topshow

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 490

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 4:30 PM ET #68

are you going with the other 2 games bodio ?

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eknilb

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 1175

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 4:37 PM ET #69

why is marcum underdog when hes better?

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 5:17 PM ET #70

Quote Originally Posted by topshow:

are you going with the other 2 games bodio ?

Yes...write-ups coming up

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 5:19 PM ET #71

Quote Originally Posted by eknilb:

why is marcum underdog when hes better?

Brewers road record, Cincy record against them, Marcum had a bad outing last time out, etc.

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 5:20 PM ET #72

Quote Originally Posted by SpankYaVegas:

stay away from teams when they're in a slump. you know better bodio! Lets get this back

Are you talking about the fact that Nats were 3-10 in their last 13 games?

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neonkion

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 720

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 5:28 PM ET #73

lol, thats like shaquille o neal trying to give ray allen advice on shooting free throws

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Livan33

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2008

Posts: 907

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 5:30 PM ET #74

Quote Originally Posted by neonkion:

lol, thats like shaquille o neal trying to give ray allen advice on shooting free throws

0

bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Jun. 1, 2011 - 5:52 PM ET #75

Additional plays for today:

#4: OVER 9 CLE/TOR -125

This total started flying on me and I couldn't catch it at 8.5 That's what happens when you put away handicapping till later. Lines/totals move. I'm still comfortable taking this one at OVER 9, but the 'hook' is a bit tougher to take. Either way, advanced stats show us that both Tomlin and Drabek are very mediocre pitchers. Tombin has a FIP of 4.42 (#117) and xFIP 3.89 (#91). His extremely lucky BABIP of .197 and E-F of -1.68 (4th highest to the negative) indicate that major regression is in order. He's coming into this one after an outing where he gave up 10 hits and 2 HR's in only 6 innings pitched. Surprisingly, he only gave up 4 ER's, part of it due to NOT walking any batter. Still, he threw 109 pitches in that one, 2nd most in his short career. I expect him to struggle against a Jays lineup that has hit double-digits in hits for 5 straight games. Opposite, Tomlin is Drabek, who is a 'WALK-machine'. Jays' hitters have the 5th best BB/K ratio and I expect them to be very patient today. Drabek has stats which are even worse than Tomlin's, with 4.89 FIP (#137) and 4.82 xFIP (#148). His .283 BABIP (a tad lucky) and -0.72 E-F indicate that regression is in order, especially after an outing in which he threw 121 pitches, the most of his short career. Why not against a Cleveland team that has found it's offensive groove last night with Sizemore back in the lineup? I also want to point out that both of these starting pitchers have tERA's over 5.3, which are some of the worst in the league. I expect both offenses to get to them today. Finally, neither BP is that great and both teams rank in the bottom-half from the standpoint of fielding, based on UZR. With the wind blowing out today, I expect this one to go OVER tonight.

#5: Arizona Diamondbacks -1 RL (-118)

I'll play this one at -1 RL to minimize the juice, but I like the Diamondbacks to get this final game of a 3-game series with the Marlins. Diamondbacks are better in all facets of the game: hitting, relief pitching, and fielding. At the same time, we have a huge discrepancy in starting pitching as well. Hudson with a 2.61 FIp (#12) and 3.39 xFIP (#40), with an unlucky .336 BABIP and very solid 3.37 K/BB ratio is facing off against Vazquez with some of the worst #'s in the league: 5.07 FIP, 5.29 xFIP, .287 BABIP (lucky) and a mediocre 1.11 K/BB ratio. There's also a huge discrepancy in tERA's: 3.1 to 5.2. Hudson is coming off a poor outing and I expect him to rebound here tonight. Keep in mind that Arizona is 12-2 in their last 14 games, and they'll be facing a Ramirez-less Florida squad that is playing their last game of a 9-game roadie. I see a Diamondbacks' rout in this one.

#6: OVER 7 COL/LAD -105

Jimenez is just not the same pitcher he was last year. His advanced stats confirm that, and even though he should improve over his current numbers, his velocity is down this year and his K/BB ratio of 1.50 is the lowest of his career. Something is really off with him, and going up against a Dodgers lineup that is hitting the ball really well lately is not going to be the answer today. Jimenez has an ERA of 5.22 and WHIP of 1.5 against the Dodgers, with the O/U at 11-3 in his starts against LA. Garland is nothing special either, and in his 3 starts against Colorado last year he gave up 19 hits and 7 ER's in 17 innings. He had 16 K's to 6 BB's in those starts. Giving up 7 ER's in those starts was a bit low, but I expect the Rockies hitters to get to him today as they bat over .300 life-time against him. With a mediocre BP behind him, LA should give up some runs. The O/U is 6-2 in COL games where the total is 7 or less and 17-12 in LAD games in the same totals-range. With not much wind in the forecast (5 mph OUT) I like this one to go OVER tonight as my model has this one at 8.7 total runs.

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400

--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330

"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."

0

Additional plays for today:

#4: OVER 9 CLE/TOR -125

This total started flying on me and I couldn't catch it at 8.5 That's what happens when you put away handicapping till later. Lines/totals move. I'm still comfortable taking this one at OVER 9, but the 'hook' is a bit tougher to take. Either way, advanced stats show us that both Tomlin and Drabek are very mediocre pitchers. Tombin has a FIP of 4.42 (#117) and xFIP 3.89 (#91). His extremely lucky BABIP of .197 and E-F of -1.68 (4th highest to the negative) indicate that major regression is in order. He's coming into this one after an outing where he gave up 10 hits and 2 HR's in only 6 innings pitched. Surprisingly, he only gave up 4 ER's, part of it due to NOT walking any batter. Still, he threw 109 pitches in that one, 2nd most in his short career. I expect him to struggle against a Jays lineup that has hit double-digits in hits for 5 straight games. Opposite, Tomlin is Drabek, who is a 'WALK-machine'. Jays' hitters have the 5th best BB/K ratio and I expect them to be very patient today. Drabek has stats which are even worse than Tomlin's, with 4.89 FIP (#137) and 4.82 xFIP (#148). His .283 BABIP (a tad lucky) and -0.72 E-F indicate that regression is in order, especially after an outing in which he threw 121 pitches, the most of his short career. Why not against a Cleveland team that has found it's offensive groove last night with Sizemore back in the lineup? I also want to point out that both of these starting pitchers have tERA's over 5.3, which are some of the worst in the league. I expect both offenses to get to them today. Finally, neither BP is that great and both teams rank in the bottom-half from the standpoint of fielding, based on UZR. With the wind blowing out today, I expect this one to go OVER tonight.

#5: Arizona Diamondbacks -1 RL (-118)

I'll play this one at -1 RL to minimize the juice, but I like the Diamondbacks to get this final game of a 3-game series with the Marlins. Diamondbacks are better in all facets of the game: hitting, relief pitching, and fielding. At the same time, we have a huge discrepancy in starting pitching as well. Hudson with a 2.61 FIp (#12) and 3.39 xFIP (#40), with an unlucky .336 BABIP and very solid 3.37 K/BB ratio is facing off against Vazquez with some of the worst #'s in the league: 5.07 FIP, 5.29 xFIP, .287 BABIP (lucky) and a mediocre 1.11 K/BB ratio. There's also a huge discrepancy in tERA's: 3.1 to 5.2. Hudson is coming off a poor outing and I expect him to rebound here tonight. Keep in mind that Arizona is 12-2 in their last 14 games, and they'll be facing a Ramirez-less Florida squad that is playing their last game of a 9-game roadie. I see a Diamondbacks' rout in this one.

#6: OVER 7 COL/LAD -105

Jimenez is just not the same pitcher he was last year. His advanced stats confirm that, and even though he should improve over his current numbers, his velocity is down this year and his K/BB ratio of 1.50 is the lowest of his career. Something is really off with him, and going up against a Dodgers lineup that is hitting the ball really well lately is not going to be the answer today. Jimenez has an ERA of 5.22 and WHIP of 1.5 against the Dodgers, with the O/U at 11-3 in his starts against LA. Garland is nothing special either, and in his 3 starts against Colorado last year he gave up 19 hits and 7 ER's in 17 innings. He had 16 K's to 6 BB's in those starts. Giving up 7 ER's in those starts was a bit low, but I expect the Rockies hitters to get to him today as they bat over .300 life-time against him. With a mediocre BP behind him, LA should give up some runs. The O/U is 6-2 in COL games where the total is 7 or less and 17-12 in LAD games in the same totals-range. With not much wind in the forecast (5 mph OUT) I like this one to go OVER tonight as my model has this one at 8.7 total runs.

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400

--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330

"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."

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Bodio's MLB Wed 06/01

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