Boston vs. Baltimore Play of the Year!!!

Do the math...Let's just say that Favs win 50% of the time overall...

 

okay...so that means that when favs win, they win by only 1 run 17% of the time.  So the 33% of the time they will cover the RL then right? 

So you are wrong to say that if the fav. wins the game, they cover the RL...you are over-exerrating the facts...

 

From the scenario that was made up above....let me ask you this question....Do I not win my bet if the game happens to fall under the 33% portion?  the answer is yes....just like I win my bet if I they only win the game by 1 run.

GL

I am going to Camdem Yards tonight.  I live in Baltimore and am one of the sad fans they still have left.

I too think the Orioles lose their 9th game in a row.  But there is verylittle insight into your play of the year.  All I read is you complaining about the haters and bashers in here.  I am not one of them....their are a lot of interesting details with this 15 win team tonight....They just fired their manager Trembley and promoted the third base coach to interim.  He may put a little more pressure on the players to produce.  They are still a very poor ballclub, yes, but Chris Tillman is making his second start this year and threw a third of an inning short of a quality start last week.  He is a couple weeks removed from a no hitter in AAA.  It is very hot here today and the ball may jump out of the yard tonight.  The Orioles mostly score their few runs on HR's.  Now the Red Sox are starting to hit better and Clay Buchholz is pitching well. 

There are a lot of ? marks surrounding tonights game and to say it is your play of the year without any reasoning is a stretch.  The Orioles have done well against Boston this early season and I think that is why the line isn't even higher.  ie. -180 -200.

I mean no disrespect....and am only looking for a productive argument. 

Insightful comment...I could sit here and type all night to describe my system that essentially generated tonight's play on the boston red sox.  I dont think it would do any of us any good.  You still wouldnt understand 100%, nor would I expect anyone without sitting down and going through the numbers, etc.  I understand the arguement you are making...By no means do people need to follow this play, and I dont care if they dont...I understand why one would question me to follow this play since I dont have any more logic than the play comes from a system that is complicated.  Thanks for the comment.

 

GL

Good luck pickem4life!  My system says the Orioles are 15-29 and they might win 40 games this year....hahaha!....Poor Orioles

Hang in there man...I followed the Twins through many terrible years in the mid 90's and through contraction talks...It is just a tough ass division to be stuck in right now...But look at the Rays...if you build a foundation through the draft anything is possible.  They have some pieces....

 Lock of the year?????????? Orioles return on a Friday night...after a long road trip....vs RedSOX...attendance will be high..and even though I think BOSOX will win...Lock of the year?!!?! LOL.

I dont think I used the word "lock", but it is my play of the year, and yes...I am laying chalk with the road fav.  Just curious as to why you think the attendance is going to be a significant factor?  The Red Sox will always bring a crowd to Camden...doesnt change anything that previously has occurred

You cant make up math and use arbitrary #s to make you seem right.



I mean, you can and you did, but holy shit....the %s I give you come from actual games played. Not your 'lets say team a wins this game 50% of the time'.

Yep, ok

Solid play even without facts to back up your Red Sox play. I do not need reasoning to agree with you on this one.

Thank you...it's a very solid play tonight...GL

i feel really uneasy about REDSOX RL play now with all these discussions!

its a lock there will be more red sox fans than orioles

This may win, but it seems like the most obvious play on the board and we all know how those usually work out.  Boston's been playing great (W 7 out of last 10), Baltimore is terrible (L 9 out of last 10), Boston wants revenge for being swept, Buchholz has been great... doesn't that line seem a bit short?  Don't get me wrong... there is no way I'm laying any money on Baltimore, but that line smells fishy as f*ck.

Laying juice on BOSOX aswell .. Cant really see them losing this one ! GL man

BOSTON IS MY POD AS WELL.. GL

gl

looking good

GOOD CALL MY MAN...
SCREW THE HATERS...
MOST OF THE TIME THE GUT PLAYS ARE THE BEST PLAYS
RATHER THAN STATS...
F STATS

Real Cappers KNOW THAT stats dont really mean SHIT

Had nothing to do with stats there real capper... more to do with something looking to good to be true.  Sometimes those plays come in, but often enough they do not.  Just take a look at how plays with 70%+ consensus did in May.  I'm not rooting against the guy... heck I want him to win and I want the Sox to win.

I never said that stats had anythin to do with the play...
What i am trying to say is MOST OF THE TIME
Your GUT PLAYS are the BEST
especially if you have been following a team for awhile.
and it seems that he has been following the sox for awhile now.
and today he felt like it was the best spot to fire even with the juice.
i mean he could have posted this yday the day before,
but he posted it today
AND considering that the Sox are BLOWING THEM OUT IN A BIG WAY
and the starting pitcher for baltimore does not even go past 2

i would say that this is a great play...

had this play gone down to the wire, it would have been different

hey, nice call man.  congrats

Congratulations on your win pickem, you won easily. The problem is you said it was the play of the year, so that means you can't have anymore play of the years for the rest of this year, so I better not see you put play of the year again on your topic title for the rest of the year.