Bubba's $$$$ Thread MONDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 04.18.16

Quote Originally Posted by Ultimatetailer:

Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

@nfl... Please post the line you place your wager at.  It is helpful to myself and people scrolling the thread and is an important part of decision making and even more so probably when tailing.  Thanks and Good Luck!

thank you and I will do that from now on plus if I am posting on my mobile phone, i can not bold to highlight the $$$$ sign.  No such function on my cheap phone. 

Quote Originally Posted by lakerz:

$$$$ LA Angels team total under 4 $$$$

I debated in length whether to make my $$ play the full game under 8.5 or just focus on Angels.  While I bet both and like both, I ended up choosing the Angels team total under 4.

Angels have fared below average this season facing lefty pitchers.  Rodon is not just your standard lefty but quite a gifted one from what I saw last season.  His last game against the Angels he just mowed down the lineup with 11Ks and giving up zero earned runs.  He has faced the Angels twice last season, pitching 15 innings and giving up 2ER to go along with a studly 0.80 WHIP and .160 BA.  He has started this year as good as he ended last year.  Rodon's one main weakness is his wildness and walks he gives up which not only puts guys on base but ups his pitch count.  This would make me a lot more nervous if Rodon gave up a lot of home runs.  Luckily for this bet, he is good in that regard.  Last season, he gave up 11 home runs in 26 appearances.  This year he gave up 1HR in 2 starts.  He did give up 2 HR last year against the Angels accounting for all runs he gave up to Angels.

Looking at the Angels lineup, they are putting together a lineup dominated by right hand bats (and switch hitters).  Makes sense given they are facing Rodon.  One thing to focus on though is Kole Calhoun.  While he is hitting LHP surprisingly well this season, last year he batted .220 in 200 at bats against LHP.  Mike Trout had good success vs LHP last season as well, but really, the dude is just a solid hitter.  This year his batting average vs LHP has fallen a bit.  Cron did okay vs LHP going .260 in 127 at bats, and Giovatella batted .250 last season vs LHP.  They are at the bottom of the lineup though.

Looking at this season, Yunel Escobar has impressed against LHP going 10 for 18.  This bears watching as he is the lead off hitter for Angels.  The main way I see Angels scoring in this game involves Escobar getting on base and having Trout or Pujuls managing to get him in via HR or whatever.  Or, perhaps Cron and Giavatella will manage to get on followed by Escobar getting a hit and then Trout knocks them home.  Otherwise, Angel lineup does not look very imposing.  Calhoun is a bit of a wildcard, as he is a good hitter and is batting .375 against LHP this season, but he did not hit well last season against LHP

To sum up this gobbledegook of stats, I do not see any reason to believe that the Angels batters will have a lot more success against Rodon this season.  I envision Rodon pitching 6-7 innings with a WHIP of around 1 and maybe giving up a run or two.  White Sox bullpen has really impressed so far this season, so assuming they pitch 2 or 3 innings of relief, Angels might get another run on average.  Overall, I do not see the Angels scoring more than 3 runs.

Moving on to White Sox, while their batting lineup is fairly impressive in names, they are struggling this season.  They have not faced many lefties thus far, so 2016 stats may not be truly indicative.  FWIW, Sox have 5 guys in their starting lineup that are hitting decently well against LHP with Brett Lawrie, Jimmy Rollins, Avisail Garcia, Adam Eaton, and Jose Abreu all doing decent.  But out of those 5, only Eaton has has > 10 at bats vs LHP this year.  Looking at last season Rollins, Lawrie, Garcia, and Eaton showed they can have decent success against LHP with Frazier being okay at a .261 average.  Frazier is still trying to break out of a season long slump since joining the White Sox.  Looking at the rest of their lineup, Soto went .246, Cabrera .240, Abreu .232,

So to summarize, White Sox have about 5 guys in their lineup that have shown they can hit LHP.  I think Hector Santiago is a decent pitcher for the Angels, although his numbers trended downwards post all star break in 2015 and now into this year.  He has good stuff (WHIP of around 1.00 and BA of .216).  His issue has been giving up home runs.  In the 11 hits he has allowed (in 2 starts), 3 of them were HRs.  So White Sox do have the power bats to make him pay if he keeps making mistakes.  If he is on, he is capable of holding White Sox to 3 or less runs.  If he makes mistakes, it could get ugly. 

That is why I decided to make my $$ bet the Angels team total under 4.  I like the full game under 8.5 as well and did bet it, but if one team is to ruin the full game total it would be the White Sox in my estimation! 

$$$$ Angels team total under 4 runs $$$$

Quote Originally Posted by lakerz:

$$$$ Angels team total under 4 runs $$$$

Sorry Bubba, forgot to bold my $$$ line to start the thread.  In case there is any confusion, I will put it up again.

Also, forgot to mention but weather looks okay for Angel game.  Slight wind blowing in but nothing major.

Here's my full card for today.

Angels team total under 4 -  $$ 2 units
Angels full game under 8.5 - 1 unit
White Sox ML -123 - 0.5 unit
Rockies full game over 8.5 - 1 unit
Philly team total under 3 - 1 unit
OKC Thunder -13.5 - 1 unit
Mavs team total under 93.5 - 0.5 unit
Houston Rockets full game under 218.5 - 1 unit

and just because I like to throw money away, I put a small amount on a few parlays

White Sox ML and under 8.5
White Sox ML, under 8.5, Twins ML, Raptors ML
Rockies over 8.5, Angels under 8.5, Raptors ML, OKC -13.5

I think that will do it for me today, probably too many bets all in all.  At least it makes for a fun afternoon/evening of sports TV watching.  Good luck to us all.

Quote Originally Posted by lakerz:

Crap, what a disastrous start to the White Sox game.  My worst fears already realized with Escobar getting on base followed by a few walks and then Calhoun gets a hit.  Dangit.  C'mon Rodon, settle down already.

3 runs already - what a doomed bet.  Sucks when a bet is doomed when the game is hardly started.

Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:



we play 9 remember? 

handicap them 9 runs that is. 

I think capping games with offensive production is good.  So many times these good pitchers are really duds.  New year, new everything so last year ratings and what not, well that's last year. 

They might come back.  5-4 cws wins 

Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:



we play 9 remember? 

handicap them 9 runs that is. 

I think capping games with offensive production is good.  So many times these good pitchers are really duds.  New year, new everything so last year ratings and what not, well that's last year. 

They might come back.  5-4 cws wins 

Quote Originally Posted by lakerz:

Frig me, should have listened to Bubba's caution about the Monday curse.  Today is crazy town in betting land.  Somehow Mavs are even with OKC and actually outshooting OKC from 2pt and 3pt land.  Wowsers.

Just checked, I see Deron Williams is playing.  That is a sneaky game time decision start when everything I read said chance of him being able to play were very low.  If he causes me to lose my Mavs team total under and OKC bet I will be pissed.