After doing my "thing" with effective strike percentages my line on this game Justin vs Gray is:
Detroit -1.04 total of 7.0.
Both pitchers were great last time, and Justin was just plain fabulous. He's a gamer, and will want to go at least 8 innings tonight.
I am not playing the side, but will be banging the over here. I am confident that my number is better than the books on this game, and the addition of Gray makes it more likely the game will go over. His average number L3 is inferior to Colon's.
Don't expect repeat performances by both starters, but instead expect the average performance of their last 3 starts. Historically this has been a more accurate barometer of future.events.
I am wagering on OVER 6.5 -1.10 with confidence.
I am also wagering OVER 6 -1.34 with confidence.
Good Luck
Shirley
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
After doing my "thing" with effective strike percentages my line on this game Justin vs Gray is:
Detroit -1.04 total of 7.0.
Both pitchers were great last time, and Justin was just plain fabulous. He's a gamer, and will want to go at least 8 innings tonight.
I am not playing the side, but will be banging the over here. I am confident that my number is better than the books on this game, and the addition of Gray makes it more likely the game will go over. His average number L3 is inferior to Colon's.
Don't expect repeat performances by both starters, but instead expect the average performance of their last 3 starts. Historically this has been a more accurate barometer of future.events.
The only way I see it going over is if Detroit covers the over themselves and I don't see Oakland at all putting up any runs or home runs against a motivated in the groove justin verlander. Just my opinion. But good work Shirley
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The only way I see it going over is if Detroit covers the over themselves and I don't see Oakland at all putting up any runs or home runs against a motivated in the groove justin verlander. Just my opinion. But good work Shirley
A'S WIN THIS GAME. I LOOK FOR THE BIG BATS OF THE TIGERS TO PUCKER UP THE THEIR AZZ HOLES IN A BIG BIG SPOT. CABRERA IS HURTING, HUNTER IS SLUMPING AND I LIKE THE A'S 5-2.
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A'S WIN THIS GAME. I LOOK FOR THE BIG BATS OF THE TIGERS TO PUCKER UP THE THEIR AZZ HOLES IN A BIG BIG SPOT. CABRERA IS HURTING, HUNTER IS SLUMPING AND I LIKE THE A'S 5-2.
5pm local start right? the ball should travel a bit better than the late starts when the air is very heavy. that being said, i would feel better about the over 6 -130 if you are going to play it. losing by .5 runs sucks.
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5pm local start right? the ball should travel a bit better than the late starts when the air is very heavy. that being said, i would feel better about the over 6 -130 if you are going to play it. losing by .5 runs sucks.
I think the 5pm start time favors the pitchers big time, as the hitters in the Coliseum are going to have an even harder time picking up the ball. I'd expect a low scoring game at least through the first five.
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I think the 5pm start time favors the pitchers big time, as the hitters in the Coliseum are going to have an even harder time picking up the ball. I'd expect a low scoring game at least through the first five.
5pm local start right? the ball should travel a bit better than the late starts when the air is very heavy. that being said, i would feel better about the over 6 -130 if you are going to play it. losing by .5 runs sucks.
I thought about this deeply before making the plays and decided to load up at over 6 -1.34. I also put 1/2 a load on over 6.5.
Logically to play the under makes sense on first inspection. I really put a lot of work into my numbers, and I trust them implicitly, so I made my wager(s). However 5 years ago, (or maybe 10) I would have just bet the under since I know JV is lights out, and Gray has been great (and good pitching stops good hitting, cold). I get it. But after adjusting for teams played, I can't get away from this wager. I also like the fact that it goes against public perception. If I lose, I'm a big girl and can handle it. Tomorrow is another day.
Shirley
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Quote Originally Posted by wildcat95:
5pm local start right? the ball should travel a bit better than the late starts when the air is very heavy. that being said, i would feel better about the over 6 -130 if you are going to play it. losing by .5 runs sucks.
I thought about this deeply before making the plays and decided to load up at over 6 -1.34. I also put 1/2 a load on over 6.5.
Logically to play the under makes sense on first inspection. I really put a lot of work into my numbers, and I trust them implicitly, so I made my wager(s). However 5 years ago, (or maybe 10) I would have just bet the under since I know JV is lights out, and Gray has been great (and good pitching stops good hitting, cold). I get it. But after adjusting for teams played, I can't get away from this wager. I also like the fact that it goes against public perception. If I lose, I'm a big girl and can handle it. Tomorrow is another day.
I think the 5pm start time favors the pitchers big time, as the hitters in the Coliseum are going to have an even harder time picking up the ball. I'd expect a low scoring game at least through the first five.
This is a very good point Thunder, and a keen observation, but it did not elude me. I know of a gambler that solely bets under these conditions. This is one of the fears I'm up against for this game .I would have wagered more if the game had a later start. Also, I'm praying for a lot of clouds!
Shirley
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Quote Originally Posted by Thunder37:
I think the 5pm start time favors the pitchers big time, as the hitters in the Coliseum are going to have an even harder time picking up the ball. I'd expect a low scoring game at least through the first five.
This is a very good point Thunder, and a keen observation, but it did not elude me. I know of a gambler that solely bets under these conditions. This is one of the fears I'm up against for this game .I would have wagered more if the game had a later start. Also, I'm praying for a lot of clouds!
Without giving away too many secrets that the books may or may not know about, think as to why the 5 PM or so start time makes it difficult. Then see if it applies to this game. You'll have to think out of the box a bit for this one.
Shirley
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Quote Originally Posted by shrimp1958:
5 o'clock start is a disaster for the hitters....
Without giving away too many secrets that the books may or may not know about, think as to why the 5 PM or so start time makes it difficult. Then see if it applies to this game. You'll have to think out of the box a bit for this one.
the 5 o clock start time does not have the effect u might think. in the midwest and such there are those glaring shadows over the infield. in this god forsaken bay area , there is too much smog and pollution to mix in with the marine layer.
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the 5 o clock start time does not have the effect u might think. in the midwest and such there are those glaring shadows over the infield. in this god forsaken bay area , there is too much smog and pollution to mix in with the marine layer.
I have just posted some thoughts on why the total is set at the same total as on Saturday--Ithe line gives me the impression that one these pithcher's is due for an implosion!
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Thanks for the insight, Shirley!
I have just posted some thoughts on why the total is set at the same total as on Saturday--Ithe line gives me the impression that one these pithcher's is due for an implosion!
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