Fridays MLB Tips

Not only do we have a strong historical reasoning for the game, but it combines with a current form to give us a big dog play that we simply cannot pass up! 

The Houston Astros, after a 20-32 start, clawed their way back into divisional contention with a 34-12 burst. But, the combination of injuries and poor pitching has left them on a 2-8 slide, as they enter this 3-game set in the role of hunter, trailing Texas by 6 ½ games for the AL West lead. Texas had their own 4-15 dip, when a trio of starters, Darvish, Lewis and Holland, all ended up on the DL at the same time. The Rangers have righted the ship with a 7-4 run. With the addition of Beltran and Lucroy, they have strengthened their offense. The imminent return of Holland and Lewis (Darvish is already back in the rotation) makes this team a legitimate threat for an appearance in the World Series. At 63-46, they maintain the best record in the American League.  

Returning to the historical aspects of this selection, we find that Texas has taken 17 of 20 from Houston, including 9-1 already this year. Today’s Texas starter, Perez, has an extraordinarily strong history against the Astros. In 7 appearances, Perez is 5-2 with a 1.88 ERA.

Such cannot be said of Astro’s starter, Keuchel, who is far from the dominant presence of his CY Young campaign. For the year, Keuchel is 6-11 with a 4.86 ERA. He was just ripped for 7 runs in 5 IP vs. Detroit. But, his worst starts this season have come against the Texas Rangers. In going 0-3 against his division rival, Keuchel has a 7.91 ERA.

This is a huge favorite price on a team and a pitcher who are currently undeserving of such favoritism. Texas has played the better ball this year, is in much better current form than a Houston offense that has plated just 7 runs in their last 6 starts and has a dominant historical edge, both from a team vs. team perspective, as well as on the mound. In what can only be termed our History Book Underdog Play of the day we bring back a huge price with this Ranger’s victory. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Texas Rangers tonight.  

I find great value in the play with the Rockies today based on their best record in the MLB since the All Star Break and an edge in starting pitching.  

The Colorado Rockies have been the surprise team in the 2nd half of MLB. After going 3-12 in early July, the Rockies are now on a 14-6 up-tick, including winning 11 of their last 14 games and 6 of their last 7 on this field. Credit the starting pitching that in the 14-game run has gone 10-1 with an ERA little north of 2.00. Then, there is the always powerful Colorado bats which have a .894 home OPS at Coors that has been supported by Colorado hitting, which in their 14-game streak, has scored 6 or more runs on 8 occasions. Today’s starter, De La Rosa, has been a new pitcher since coming off the DL and simplifying his mechanics. In his most recent 9 starts, De La Rosa has a 5-3 record with a 3.54 ERA. In is most recent start, a 7-2 victory vs. the Mets, De La Rosa worked 6 IP allowing just 2 runs and 6 hits.

This is an outstanding opportunity to take a team, who is perennially one of the best batting teams in MLB. Combined with the fact they are working on a run that gives them the best record in MLB since the Break is an added bonus. When we throw in the good current form of De La Rosa and the fact that he has perennially pitched his best baseball from this mound, it gives us an incredible advantage in a game where the Rockies are now a value-laden home dog compared to the respected opening price that had them as a 1.25 home favorite. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Colorado Rockies tonight.