🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

WINNER!

  WARNING:  HOT STREAK alert!

The following STARTERS are riding a tenuous 8-game HOT STREAK, WITHOUT getting roughed up yet in that streak,

...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!   

  RYAN, Twins

  JONES, Pirates

Make no mistake, these dudes and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional. HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  It happens to the best of them.  Just CAN NOT be avoided.

When???  We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some streaks may continue beyond that by 2 or 3 more performances....it happens!  But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day.  There's 14 other games to look at.  I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that!

Nine games would be even more rare....

Leaning Yankees in the early game...

HOT STREAKS like RYAN's have to end sooner or later, and because he is a righty, he's facing the Yankee bats which are particularly good at hitting righties ...as they are a close second only to Dodgers in that regard and well above the majority of teams

2 of RYAN's 8 starts were facing CWS - ranked 29th facing righthanders!

2 of RYAN's 8 starts were facing Detroit - ranked 24th facing righthanders!

1 of RYAN's 8 starts were facing JAYS - ranked 26th facing righthanders!

why ?

@KellyM_1964

 Explained in #356 above

@fubah2

 Good info 

1 of RYAN's 8 starts were facing Cleveland - ranked 19th facing righthanders!

1 of RYAN's 8 starts were facing Royals - ranked 14th facing righthanders!

Thursday, May 16:

Yankees +109  @pinnacle  

....only a small edge here favoring Yankees, PLUS RYAN on a tenuous streak so I see value here going against him facing a team that pounds righties... NOT a *BB

So....top of the first and Yankees lead 3 - 0

Twins starter RYAN - riding a very tenuous 8-game hot streak without being roughed up YET - albeit largely v. teams that DON'T hit righties well as noted in detail above - gave up a walk, 3 hits (homer), and 3 runs to the powerful righty-hitting YANKEES in just his half of the first inning....

Yankees are now -450 favs.....

Although a close call in my stats, while 7 on in 5 1/3 ip is not bad at all,  4 earned runs with a homer is BAD

Thus endeth RYAN's 8-game hot streak.....which means now it is safe to consider RYAN's starts once again.  He is an *EXCELLENT* starter afterall and as long as he is NOT facing a top tier team that pounds righties, he should be considered as a probable lean v. Washington on Tuesday, who are only 19th v. righties at the time of this post....

WINNER!!

@fubah2

 good call  

Mid 8th , 5 - 5,  LIVE BET:

BoSOX -150

BIG FAT LOSER

@Moose6836

 Not for me,  until AFTER the TWINKIES prove they are out of their current batting slump...... just 1 run over three games?!?!

But if they can score AT LEAST 4+ runs today v. a decent righthander in Cleveland, then I will consider them out of their slump and give due consideration on Saturday.....But right now, having scored 16 in 3 games v. BlewitJays but follow that with only 1 run in 3 games v. Yankees, TWINS are in a slump and I won't commit to "guessing" that they come out of it today. For me, I would rather PASS and look at other games until I have better info on TWINS run production at the plate late tonight.... so I'm sitting this one out...

But if YOU choose to bet them today, then I wish you a winner!

For me, "guessing" - gambler's ruin