🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

Entering today . . .

YTD:   158 - 102   +41.80u    (63 - 39 *BB)

but this will drop some by late tonight for sure....

Would normally take a serious look at the PADRES when their bats are facing a righthander!

But they could be in a slump so I PASS.

Quote Originally Posted by yourpalhal:

Thanks Hal!  BoL with your bets tonight!

BoL with your bets this week!

@Hoyasaxa

Good stuff. 

No HOT STREAKS today but Thursday maybe.....will check later....

Passed on the Chicago vs Chicago matchup

because although the "Cardiac Cubs" should hold a solid +1.0 edge in theory, the CWS have dropped two weak bats from their lineup and called up a good one...It really can only get better for them, which creates a level of uncertainty I am not comfortable with. PASS.

Yankee stadium, bottom of the 5th....my Yankees lead 4 - 0..... bases loaded for slugger Aaron Judge and nobody out....

3  winners but 4 BIG FAT LOSERS on Wednesday,

including a loss when

I violated my own rule about NOT betting UNDERS

       Updated:  • Totals, Unders posted pre-game:   6 - 10     -6.76u 

Live and re-learn as they say....

Thursday, June 06:

Orioles, in this series @Toronto thus far have outscored the hapless BlewitJays 19 - 6  *despite* facing 3 righthanders....O's are much better hitting lefties! In fact, their OPS v. lefties is .813 and leads the entire league!

Today they face Toronto's KIKUCHI - a lefty - whose last two outing were very poor:

He let 8 on base and 5 earned runs in only 3.0 ip vs Detroit - only .638 OPS

Then let 10 on and 5 earned runs in just 5,1 ip vs Pirates -  .718 OPS

JP Sears is the starter for OAKLAND today vs Mariners.
       He sports a very good WHIP stat ...but mediocre ERA

This is interesting:
6 of his starts allowed at least 4+ earned runs
his other 6 starts limited earned runs to only 1 or 0!

...  and they seem to alternate!

Note this sequence!

04/22 -  0   earned runs
04/27 -  7  earned runs
05/03 -  0   earned runs
05/08 -  4  earned runs
05/14  -  1   earned runs
05/19  -  4  earned runs
05/25  -  1   earned runs
05/31  -  4  earned runs
Today ???

@fubah2

I have the Yankees -140, Guardians -145, and Mariners -140 today.  Hopefully they pan out.

Good luck with all your picks.   

I'm just starting my day

A gent in another thread - most probably well-intentioned!  - suggested something that I had to check out, and discovered it is "unintentionally misleading"

Betting all favs this year (to date) would result in serious profits?

While I will not spend several hours trying to verify more than 9 weeks of results, two important points:

1/  back tracing trends like this are always misleading because the viewer could not possibly know in advance of said trend when itwould take hold and thus begin betting in order to earn those "implied" profits...

2/  I did a count on a randomly selected 2 week period (May 13 - 26) and found that betting all favs would have lost -17.39 units. No reason to believe all the other 2 week periods would be highly profitable.

The top batting teams v. right-hand pitchers are:
               (as based on OBP, but OPS is closely correlated!)

Yankees
Brewskys
Padres .... yes, the mediocre Padres!
Dodgers
Phillies
Astros
.... then there is a significant dropoff to 7th best

The WORST batting teams v. right-hand pitchers are:
WhiteSox
Angels
Pirates
Reds
Marlins

  The top batting teams v. LEFTY pitchers are:
        (as based on OBP, but OPS is closely correlated!)

Dodgers
Orioles
Reds
Phillies
DBacks

Angels

Cleveland

The WORST batting teams v. LEFTIES are:

Marlins
WhiteSox
Cardinals
A's
Tigers

Thanks @fubah2

@pointguard

I think over time the spread beats both sides.  So picking all the Favorites or all the Underdogs is going to lose pretty quickly.  Have to pick your spots, and pick them well.