If you are actually betting the Tigers today with REAL money

My opinion – WHY the Tigers:

         Detr     Sanchez     112

150   Chws   Quint.       14

White sox open up as a 150 fav. Currently around 138.    Sanchez has a numerical rating of 112 (based on numbers and a formula I use to rate pitchers)   and Quint.  14 (lower the better).   Obviously on paper Quint.    Appears to be the logical choice, however, history has shown – when pitchers have these ratings along with an opening line of 150 – the away team often gets the victory – thus I take the Tigers.   My answer to your question – either way good luck.  

Key, respect the heck out of your handicapping but I don't think you go about it the right way with your flat-betting, or if you want to flat-bet, then you shouldn't make posts like these.

Making this thread you should have a large sum on the White Sox. You don't though because you flat-bet. I feel you flat-bet because you know anything can happen , any day. The Tigers stand a great chance of winning today.

An example

Say today you feel with your spreadsheets, that the White Sox offer a 94.5% chance of winning today, and the line is White Sox +105, shouldn't that merit a larger wager than when a team offers a 68% chance to win and are -110? Again, just an example.

The reason you don't bet bigger is because you either don't trust your spreadsheets enough, or because you know damn well that a post like this is stupid. There are many reasons why the Tigers can easily win, and I think you know that, which is why you flat-bet to begin with.

GL KEY. Any season in the green is a good season, and youre in the green. 

First I would like to thank PhillyBEEF, PapaShango, and TheBuddah for sticking to the question, the purpose of the post.

Most revealing was the xFIP comparisons by PapaShango, for which I thank you again. I have little faith in either and do not use them. Career versus is also, imho, worthless when handicapping given game on a given day.

As far as form going into the game I had Quintana at 72.2 skill points and 13-6 for quality starts. I had Sanchez at 48.3 and 4-12. That is a huge difference and I knew anyone taking the Tigers had to have their reasons. That is what the post was all about. My offensive probability was very close with a tiny lean toward the White Sox and really insignificant, but the WS come out way ahead in the final tally, thanks to Sanchez. I knew the Sox bullpen was in bad shape but since Quintana gave hem 7 shutout to begin with they only had to hang on for 2 innings.

What really gets ridiculous in official scoring is that Quintana does not get the win and Sanchez does not get the loss, although they were clearly the two biggest factors involved. I don’t roll that way.

Quintana is now 10-10 head to head versus his opposite number, which explains some of the losses. Either he was up against other top guns or his offense failed to give him support, because he is now 14-6 for quality starts and that is far more important when handicapping the next game.

Sanchez is now 4-12 in both categories, showing me that he is just plain a lousy pitcher, nothing else to blame it on, so I can assume my ratings on both are pretty accurate. You don’t win or lose them all but it is important to be on the right side.

Thanks again to those that stuck to the subject.