over 8.5 sf @ det
94% of all games in last 11 years where at least one starter involved was on 3 days rest and at least one bullpen involved was in bottom 5 in era went OVER THE TOTAL.
zito on 3 days rest...108 pitches in last start...third time zone in last 7 days for him...detroit #3 offense in majors but #30 bullpen too...21 hits for these two offenses yesterday with only 7 runs...both offenses are due...especially under al rules...
yet another simple yet effective info system play...courtesy of sportsdatabase. not sure if i can post link here to my research work @ that site...anyways,...
teams that lose the previous game after leading by at least 5...
as long as their total is 8 or lower, they are not favored by -115 or more, and they were not a dog of +120 or more the day before...
22 straight unders dating back to may 5th of 2004...
it happened to twins once already this season when they faced angels as a sizeable home dog after losing 6-5 despite leading 5-0. they won the following day 1-0.
can blackburn and greinke help us today ?
why not...both greinke and blackburn have been outstanding in bounce back situations in their careers...
under 8 mil@min
home teams trying to avoid losing third straight game in the series against the same opponent after losing game #2 by the score 0-1 or 0-2 are 18-0 in game #3 of that series as long as...
-they were not +110 or bigger dogs the day before
-they didn't lose by 5+ in their last 2 meetings before this series
the same system is 11-0 under since 2005 if the home team is underdog or small fave of -130 or less.
-the opponent never scored more than 2 runs in those 11 games.
-all 11 unders won by at least 2 runs
-10/11 starters had a quality start and the only starter w/o a quality start in this situation was wakefield against seattle and it happened this season. even then, wakefield allowed only 1 earned run in 5.2 innings pitched.
Cubs 3-0 vs White Sox trying to avoid a home sweep since 2005, including a 1-0 win last year. White Sox not the greatest road fave going for a 3 game sweep. 5-16 in last 21 in this situation when favored from -115 to -155, including 0-2 this season, once with Floyd as starting pitcher.
under 8.5 cws@chc
under 4.5 cws team total cws@chc
half unit, alt rl play:chc +2.5(-245) cws@chc
mets on the west coast, after a ny rivalery series that ended in extra innings sunday. lefty vs lefty matchup after 4 righty opponent starters in last 4 games for both nym and lad.
NL game involving a team on the road in pacific time zone after at least 3 home games in eastern time zone...21 unders in a row if...
the home team scored no more than 4 runs in last game with an under streak or no more than 1 game over streak...
and the home team scored 9- runs in last game with an under streak or no more than 2 game over streak.
btw this system is good in AL games too but it is perfect only in NL games.
capuano & lilly can't wait to face NL batters...
capuano vs AL teams this season: 5.16 era, 2 bad starts in last 13 starts, both against AL teams, both in AL ballparks.
lilly vs AL teams this season: 8.27 ERA, 5 HR in 3 starts.
Last 7 meetings in LA: 0 overs !
nym@lad under 7.5
Established in 1995,
congrats, wish i would have seen earlier....
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