Arizona 1st 5 innings -1/2 run +110 Large Play
There are several solid reasons why I like the Diamondbacks tonight.
The first and most important is how Clay Bucholz has been pitching. In his last 5 games he is 4-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.25 WHIP and he has been averaging just over 6 innings per start. Another strong factor is that he has only given up 3 HR's in 30.1 innings, which is an exceptional ratio and tonight he is against a Padres team that suffers from a power shortage.
BUT, the most important reason I like Arizona tonight in the 1st 5 innings is that Bucholz has one of the best records in the league for the 1st 5 innings. The Diamondbacks are 9-1 in the 1st 5 Innings in the last 10 games he has started.
Also, Bucholz is also 2-0 in his career against the Padres and tonight he faces a AA prospect that greatly overachieved in his 1st start. I look for a huge reversal tonight by Nix.
I also think the Diamondbacks will play very focused in this game after losing the 1st game in Texas and Cincy in their last 2 series and they have to win all 3 games in San Diego to have a winning road trip.
Also, the Padres have only won 6 of their last 26 home games and they are more interested right now in looking at some of their future talent like Jacob Nix while the Diamondbacks are playing to hold onto their #1 spot and 1 1/2 game lead in the National League West. They have owned the Padres winning 7 of the last 9 meetings including all 3 of the games at PETCO Park earlier this year.
Combine this with the fact that the Padres are pure cr*p in the 1st game of all of their home series with a 3-13 record while the Diamondbacks are a very solid 14-8 on the season in their 1st road game of each series.
Some other tidbits on how lousy the Padres have been at home are:
They are 3-14 in the last 17 home games vs. a right handed starter.
They are 2-10 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
They are 1-10 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
This will be a large play and really like laying the 1/2 run and getting back +1.10. You do have the option of laying -1.30 on the Money Line.
BOL tonight!
Tomorrow morning I will check 
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