NY Yankees UNDER 94.5
LOL, give me a break! Who honestly
thinks the Yankees will win 95 games this year? First of all as
deadly as their offense was last year they only won 94 games last
year. I don't think their offense will be as good either. Jeter,
Abreu, Damon, and Giambi are on the downside of their careers and I
think they only continue to regress. Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada
had insane seasons last year and although I think A-Rod will still be
huge he won't have as big of a year as last season and there is no
chance in hell Jorge Posada has a repeat of 2007. As far as the rest
of the lineup goes I think Matsui will be about the same and Cabrera
and Cano will probably be better, but on the whole I can't see this
team scoring 968 runs again, I can't even see them getting 900 which
is important because the offense carried them last year as masked the
putridness of a pitching staff that combined to sport a lovely 4.49
ERA.
And this year's pitching looks pretty bad. Projected starting rotation: Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Hughes and either Kennedy or Igawa. OK Wang is good but Pettite and Mussina were bad last year and adding another year will only make them worse. Hughes is unproven, Kennedy isn't as good as he was late last year and Igawa blows. It's also worth noting that these young kids are “supposed” to have IP caps so I can't see them starting all year. The bullpen isn't looking good either except for Chamberlain. Rivera wore down in the 2nd half last year and again he adds another year onto his age this year. Farnsworth, Bruney, Ramirez and Henn are pretty gross and the offseason adding of Latroy Hawkins should do wonders (or not). You know what I'm gonna make a prediction and say that this team doesn' even make the playoffs this year.
Arizona UNDER 87.5
The Over on this one is going to be the
sucker bet of the spring. Again the fact that they won 90 games last
year but had a -20 run differential is a HUGE reg flag! There's a lot
of hype surrounding this team because of last year's results and the
fact that they did it while being so young, also the addition of Dan
Haren is making people googoo eyed for the young D-Backs. Let's cut
to the chase; their offense blows. Plain and simple their offense
blows. They were at or near the bottom in almost every statiscally
category last year (Runs, AVG, OBP....) and I don't see a drastic
improvement this season although there should be an improvement I
just don't think it will be enough.
As far as pitching goes even
though they lost Valverde I still think overall they have one of the
better bullpens in the NL. As far as the starters go well we know
Webb is a stud, nuff said about him. The remaining 4 starters are
expected to be Dan Haren, Randy Johnson, Micah Owings and Doug Davis.
OK Doug Davis blows, he allows way too many baseunners and he's
extremely lucky his ERA wasn't over 5 or 6 last year with a WHIP like
that. Raise your hand if you think Randy Johnson won't end up on the
DL this year...................that's what I thought and he's said
that if his back flares up again he will retire. Micah
Owings......meh he's ok. He won't be a stud but a good #3 or 4,
actually he should be hitting he's a stud with the bat. Now there's a
lot of hype about Danny Haren but I think he'll be good but not as
great as people think. He had a 3.06 ERA last year but 1.21
WHIP....hello red flag again. He's also had 2 2nd half
meltdowns the last 2 years. Also he had great #'s at home in Oakland
last year in that big spacious pitchers park and his road #'s weren't
nearly as good. Keep in mind he moves from a pitcher friendly park to
a hitter friendly park this year so his #'s could regress a bit.
Overall even though I think this D-Backs team is good they aren't 88
win good, they aren't even a playoff team this year.
2 other things to keep in mind: 1. They play in a very tough division with the Padres, Rockies and Dodgers all being serious playoff threats. 2. Expectations. This team came out of nowhere won 90 games and went all the way to the NLCS last year as a young team that was at least 2 years out. The expectations for this young team are huge this year and a young team like this might crack under the pressure.
Seattle UNDER 84
There's a lot of hype about this team
this year and a lot of people seem to think they have terrific
pitching. OK Bedard and Felix have the potential to be great but
Felix hasn't lived up to the potential yet and he pitched to a lot of
contact last year, he gave up a lot of hits. Bedard was great last
year when healthy, but that's the key it seems like every year he has
a stint or two on the DL. I think the bullpen is pretty bad. Putz is
a stud no doubt about it but losing Sherill hurts and the rest of the
bullpen is in the lower half of the league. And here's the key:
Bedard and Felix are only 40% of a 5 man rotation. He's who are
battling for 60% of the starting rotation: Jarrod Washburn, Miguel
Batista, Carlos Silva and Horacio Ramirez...............
Another thing is these
hitters are old and unreliable. Ichiro is a stud but Sexson, Beltre,
Ibanez and Jose Lopez all have huge question marks. Jojima is good,
Betancourt is OK as well, and Brad Wilkerson shouldn't be starting
for anybody and if they get an injury in the outfield they are in
deep shit.
Also the fact that they finished 14 games over .500
last year but had a -19 run differencial should be a huge red flag. I
really can't see this team batting .287 again and finishing 12th in
runs when they finished 21st and 22nd in runs scored and batted .272
and .256 the previous 2 seasons with basically the same lineup. Also
consider they finished 22nd in ERA and 26th in BAA last season.
...................and then put your two cents in!
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