Marvellous Monday Picks 08/11

DUDE : I WISH I COULD CAP GAMES LIKE YOU, SO YOUR IN A SMALL SLUMP KEEP YOUR HEAD UP, AND LIKE MY FATHER WOULD SAY IT S NOT THE DOG IN THE FIGHT IT S THE FIGHT IN THE DOG. HERE THE BEST TO YA AND DON T FORGET SKILL AND CONFIDENCE ARE YOUR BEST FRIENDS.-- LATER

and if you want love get a dog

 

hope your plays come through but enough of this sad drama

get a dog- feed him and play with him and he will love ya all the

time

With you on Mets man... People that aren't "in your corner" during losing streaks probably are the type to just quit during rough spells. No matter how good you are - and you seem to be good - bad days, weeks and hopefully not months, happen and you just gotta bite the bullet and keep chugging along. It'll better prepare you for the future as it becomes more expected as part of betting on sports.

Keep your head up man. I'm new to this forum but have been betting a long time and know exactly what it feels like. Post your picks every single day, believe in your handicapping techniques and just remember to see the forest from the trees.

Gotta quote my favorite butler on this one: "Why do we fall, sir? So that we might learn to pick ourselves up." 

one criticism I have and its not meant to bash (thats not my style) is this - 668 total games played. 668/118 (most teams total # of games) = 5.66 games per night. Thats a lot of games per night.

Casinos get whales to their establishments free of charge and give them anything and everything they want. In return the casinos ask for a crack at their money buy playing at the tables (mostly blackjack) for a certain amount of time. Why? You know the reason.

Most hold'em players complain about bad beats and lose their money Why? Most chase and play too many hands while others flat out get unlucky.  In baseball you'll get unlucky more times than lucky and the more games you play the more you'll lose.

Over/Under 15.5 Minutes.

I have the under.

 

Wow that was quick, Mods

I was just going to use the very same analogy..  Couple of weeks back you reduced the number of plays and it was the start of your turn around.  I understand that your model requires that you play all games which fit into it but you gotta find a way to reduce the number of plays to those which have the highest probability of winning and stick with them..  Just my 2 cents..

Good luck with whatever you do..

Have to disagree with a few things here, but I don't want to hijack the thread. Casinos fly in the big shooters because they are giving them action on casino games, where by definition, the casinos have an edge. If the whales were seen to be an excellent blackjack player, or a great sports handicapper then those perks would dry up in a hurry.

A good hold'em player ( in limit or open ) is usually going to stick his money into the middle with the best. So he/she will have more bad beats because the other guys are chasing uphill.

The more sports games you choose shouldn't really matter, as long as you think you have an edge, and don't put too much of your bankroll in play. Mooses even out, but we are hard wired to remember bad beats instead good beats. Long story on why that is.

All good topics and worthy of further discussion if anyone would like to get a thread going.

Anyway, good luck today lanastasis

 

even during your rough stretches you have been extremely helpful and respectful (even to the "haterz").  i want to say thanks for your help and i am sure you will get $ in the end.

btw, have a beer and listen to some good music while capping.  takes the "live or die" aspect away a little.

Keep doing what you are doing. Nobody is shielded against a cold spell. You will get back on track

Wow, just got home and saw all these posts and was expecting to find World War III in here. Instead, I find a number of really supportive posts, many undeserved, but all of which I am really thankful for. Obviously, good or bad, Covers is a side thing for most of us, but it is a little inspiring to read all of your support. I appreciate it very much.

Thanks for the feedback. You are onto something, but the blanket statement that lots of action is worse than less action is not necessarily true and neither is the contrary statement. Like PokerBroker aptly pointed out, what matters is the edge on each play. Obviously, I have not had as much of an edge as I anticipated in a lot of plays or else you might be discussing how amazing it is to see someone play so many picks and do so well. But, partly going along with your reasoning, I went through the last few weeks of picks last night and realized it has mostly been road plays that has killed me. This is nothing new as I was playing mostly home plays earlier in the season and all of last season. I was wrongly convinced that I had a decent edge in road games. Road games will be pretty selective from here on out. I would prefer not to clog everyone with the drama of what I am noticing wrong/right w/ my system/capping, but this is where I am at, for what it's worth.

Playing less road games should significantly reduce plays -- hopefully to 10 or even less, most of the time