jake21s -- Well, I was actually leaning over, but couldn't do it. My anticipated run total was around 9 and the ump is over friendly, but it wasn't enough to make me pull the trigger. I don't try to read into line moves too much as they can be caused by a number of factors, many of which are insignificant. So I don't know what to tell you. As for NYY/Minny, I don't get good reads on games in domes, so can't say much with this one. GL w/ whatever you do.
bluecrew08 -- Thanks man.
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jake21s -- Well, I was actually leaning over, but couldn't do it. My anticipated run total was around 9 and the ump is over friendly, but it wasn't enough to make me pull the trigger. I don't try to read into line moves too much as they can be caused by a number of factors, many of which are insignificant. So I don't know what to tell you. As for NYY/Minny, I don't get good reads on games in domes, so can't say much with this one. GL w/ whatever you do.
Hot streaks come and go- so do cold streaks- I wish I had the discipline to stick with my initial method / model- Everytime I go on a cold streak , I think I'm missing something, tweak something, but always end up getting back to basics. Baseball is unique in that there are SO many games to analyze- things will turn around for you unless you go crazy trying to "fix" your methods of analysis. I'm not always on the same side as you, but do like to see your picks. Keep on keeping on- there are almost 2 months left.
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Hot streaks come and go- so do cold streaks- I wish I had the discipline to stick with my initial method / model- Everytime I go on a cold streak , I think I'm missing something, tweak something, but always end up getting back to basics. Baseball is unique in that there are SO many games to analyze- things will turn around for you unless you go crazy trying to "fix" your methods of analysis. I'm not always on the same side as you, but do like to see your picks. Keep on keeping on- there are almost 2 months left.
Lanastasis, a lot of people are behind you - with your attitude you are a winner no matter how you do on your picks.
GL
Sorry you're having another rough patch. Head up bro. Lood luck...don't mind the haters man. Just keep doin' what you do. Good luck with it bro.
DUDE : I WISH I COULD CAP GAMES LIKE YOU, SO YOUR IN A SMALL SLUMP KEEP YOUR HEAD UP, AND LIKE MY FATHER WOULD SAY IT S NOT THE DOG IN THE FIGHT IT S THE FIGHT IN THE DOG. HERE THE BEST TO YA AND DON T FORGET SKILL AND CONFIDENCE ARE YOUR BEST FRIENDS.-- LATER
Lans...Got your back...Keep plugging away and you'll be back...Winners always do....and your a winner
There are more people in your corner than you think...
Lanastasis,
Just look @ how many units you are up...there are many people here on covers that will never be winning @ sports betting...just be thankful that you can still make a profit doing this.
my take all these things that have been said are true and those people have been with you throught are the only ones that matter. You are up 15 units and that is better than 95% of people who gamble so that is good stuff. Nobody wins all the time and losing streaks are inevitable. To keep the course and just plod ahead with class and dignity are the best qualities someone can have and is a major reason some people win and some lose. You are winning because you deserve to. I only cjeck in once a week just to see how much you are up and as long as you are up , that brings a smile to me. Keep up the good work and fight the good fight
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Lanastasis, a lot of people are behind you - with your attitude you are a winner no matter how you do on your picks.
GL
Sorry you're having another rough patch. Head up bro. Lood luck...don't mind the haters man. Just keep doin' what you do. Good luck with it bro.
DUDE : I WISH I COULD CAP GAMES LIKE YOU, SO YOUR IN A SMALL SLUMP KEEP YOUR HEAD UP, AND LIKE MY FATHER WOULD SAY IT S NOT THE DOG IN THE FIGHT IT S THE FIGHT IN THE DOG. HERE THE BEST TO YA AND DON T FORGET SKILL AND CONFIDENCE ARE YOUR BEST FRIENDS.-- LATER
Lans...Got your back...Keep plugging away and you'll be back...Winners always do....and your a winner
There are more people in your corner than you think...
Lanastasis,
Just look @ how many units you are up...there are many people here on covers that will never be winning @ sports betting...just be thankful that you can still make a profit doing this.
my take all these things that have been said are true and those people have been with you throught are the only ones that matter. You are up 15 units and that is better than 95% of people who gamble so that is good stuff. Nobody wins all the time and losing streaks are inevitable. To keep the course and just plod ahead with class and dignity are the best qualities someone can have and is a major reason some people win and some lose. You are winning because you deserve to. I only cjeck in once a week just to see how much you are up and as long as you are up , that brings a smile to me. Keep up the good work and fight the good fight
I have not been around the bases forum much lately but I do wish you luck....your still ahead for the season and thats all that really matters in the end
good luck buddy
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I have not been around the bases forum much lately but I do wish you luck....your still ahead for the season and thats all that really matters in the end
Dangerfields, you make a lot of good points, but are off on some of others -- for my personal situation, if nothing else. Let me try to respond to your key statements.
if you read any book on sports betting one of the 1st thing they will
tell you is limit the number of plays.. ESPECIALLY if you find
yourself in a bit of a slump
First off, what works for one person may not work for another. There are some cappers who can only thrive w/ one play a night while others can play 5-10. However, I do agree about reducing plays when in a slump and if you read my post from earlier today, I am doing this.
i noticed viewing your picks you are willing to sometimes lay 2-1 for
multiple units.. if you lay 2-1 for 2.5 units and lose you then have
to win 5 games at even odds just to beak even.
Not sure what you are saying here. I was doing this until last week but not any more. I won't be laying 2-1 to win on a fav. If I really like a -200 fav, I will bet the run line. But you seem to really have something against favorites, which get a terrible, underserved rap. Up until a decade ago, yes, favs were usually overpriced to compensate for the immensity of square action. This isn't the case anymore and the backlash against favs by many bettors has made many favs undervalued. For me personally, I do way better with favs than dogs. Much better. So this train of logic does not apply to all. It all depends on how you cap and what your strengths are.
you bet the mets today and pedro leaves game leading 4-1.. looks good
until bullpen implodes and kills your bet..suppose you bet a monster
pitcher against a relative schmo and the schmo pitches well enough to
keep the game close.. you are then betting 2-1 against the bullpen
rather than the monster pitcher.. thats not what the line is based
on and i doubt if its that much of a factor in handicappind.. i
realize it plays some factor but most of the time you are playing on
the starters..if you take out webb and lee the next best pitchers all
have anywhere from 5 to 8 loses
Not sure what you are trying to say with this. I cap for bullpens, but nobody can predict the type of shit that goes on day in and day out as far as blown saves/ blow up innings, etc.
its very evident you have talent at picking games and you're 11-0
proves that out but you need to rethink your money management and your
amount of games.
Thanks. And yeah, like I've said, I've done this.
f your doing this just for fun then what you are doing is fine but if
you are serious about it then what i am telling you is spot on..
Not doing it for fun.
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Dangerfields, you make a lot of good points, but are off on some of others -- for my personal situation, if nothing else. Let me try to respond to your key statements.
if you read any book on sports betting one of the 1st thing they will
tell you is limit the number of plays.. ESPECIALLY if you find
yourself in a bit of a slump
First off, what works for one person may not work for another. There are some cappers who can only thrive w/ one play a night while others can play 5-10. However, I do agree about reducing plays when in a slump and if you read my post from earlier today, I am doing this.
i noticed viewing your picks you are willing to sometimes lay 2-1 for
multiple units.. if you lay 2-1 for 2.5 units and lose you then have
to win 5 games at even odds just to beak even.
Not sure what you are saying here. I was doing this until last week but not any more. I won't be laying 2-1 to win on a fav. If I really like a -200 fav, I will bet the run line. But you seem to really have something against favorites, which get a terrible, underserved rap. Up until a decade ago, yes, favs were usually overpriced to compensate for the immensity of square action. This isn't the case anymore and the backlash against favs by many bettors has made many favs undervalued. For me personally, I do way better with favs than dogs. Much better. So this train of logic does not apply to all. It all depends on how you cap and what your strengths are.
you bet the mets today and pedro leaves game leading 4-1.. looks good
until bullpen implodes and kills your bet..suppose you bet a monster
pitcher against a relative schmo and the schmo pitches well enough to
keep the game close.. you are then betting 2-1 against the bullpen
rather than the monster pitcher.. thats not what the line is based
on and i doubt if its that much of a factor in handicappind.. i
realize it plays some factor but most of the time you are playing on
the starters..if you take out webb and lee the next best pitchers all
have anywhere from 5 to 8 loses
Not sure what you are trying to say with this. I cap for bullpens, but nobody can predict the type of shit that goes on day in and day out as far as blown saves/ blow up innings, etc.
its very evident you have talent at picking games and you're 11-0
proves that out but you need to rethink your money management and your
amount of games.
Thanks. And yeah, like I've said, I've done this.
f your doing this just for fun then what you are doing is fine but if
you are serious about it then what i am telling you is spot on..
Lanny you are the man does not matter what anyone else says I took your system for betting and took it more extreme for Over and Unders and I would be no where without your advice and your plays buddy screw the haters they are just madd because they suck so bad they can't post there own picks.
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Lanny you are the man does not matter what anyone else says I took your system for betting and took it more extreme for Over and Unders and I would be no where without your advice and your plays buddy screw the haters they are just madd because they suck so bad they can't post there own picks.
lan..the proof is in the numbers.. you are almost 50 games over 500 (if im reading your sat board currectly) and you are up 15 units.. if you look in the PB.. gh (who i think has put out almost 1000 selections so far! which i think is totally ridiculous.. but never the lass he is up something like 60 units.. now granted there is a lot of dispiute about his lines.. (they "magically always move in his favor) and he takes ALOT of crap for it.. but the point is ..if you are picking at aa plus 50 over 500 you shold be up more than 15 units.. what i am saying is you are bettr than that.. and just a note when you say what works for some doesnt work for others.. well the only thing i can tell you is that people have done tons of painstaking work to come up with the things i told you about in the last post. these are not opinions but based on facts acumulated over years of research.. but im glad to hear you are laying off big favs.. but maybe that is one spot you can utilize to cut back.. i personally play run lines but i play mostly for recreation at this point.. i enjoy taking 3 run line favs with decent odds and getting 15-1 or better in parlays.. some nights its great.. some nites every fav gives up that bs run in the top of 9th to win by 1..ive found this year like no other year since ive been doing this,,(and we are talking longer than most people on covers are alive) is the worst year for bullpens i have ever seen.... try to name 5 solid bullpens.. other than cal angels.. maybe dodgers sometimes bost..(im sure i might be missing one or 2)but in general its really sad..makes everything else that much more difficult
0..
0
lan..the proof is in the numbers.. you are almost 50 games over 500 (if im reading your sat board currectly) and you are up 15 units.. if you look in the PB.. gh (who i think has put out almost 1000 selections so far! which i think is totally ridiculous.. but never the lass he is up something like 60 units.. now granted there is a lot of dispiute about his lines.. (they "magically always move in his favor) and he takes ALOT of crap for it.. but the point is ..if you are picking at aa plus 50 over 500 you shold be up more than 15 units.. what i am saying is you are bettr than that.. and just a note when you say what works for some doesnt work for others.. well the only thing i can tell you is that people have done tons of painstaking work to come up with the things i told you about in the last post. these are not opinions but based on facts acumulated over years of research.. but im glad to hear you are laying off big favs.. but maybe that is one spot you can utilize to cut back.. i personally play run lines but i play mostly for recreation at this point.. i enjoy taking 3 run line favs with decent odds and getting 15-1 or better in parlays.. some nights its great.. some nites every fav gives up that bs run in the top of 9th to win by 1..ive found this year like no other year since ive been doing this,,(and we are talking longer than most people on covers are alive) is the worst year for bullpens i have ever seen.... try to name 5 solid bullpens.. other than cal angels.. maybe dodgers sometimes bost..(im sure i might be missing one or 2)but in general its really sad..makes everything else that much more difficult
Hang in there boss and just a piece of advice from a long time capper......................
"Stick with it" and honestly, don't worry about the forum and the comments you get whether they are postive or negative. It makes no difference what everyone else thinks.
Betting on sports has alot of emotion in it and alot of numbers to review. Leave the emotion out of it and just focus on your capping. I have followed you for some time and yes, you are doing very well OVERALL.
Just look at the number and what you do. DROP the emotion and I can promise you, you will get back on track. You have a good talent. Do not get all tied up in the other members on the site. People will notice you, like they have in the last month or so that has passed.
Keep your head up and don't read too much into peoples posts.
DO WHAT YOU DO. Best of luck to you and I am sure you will be in the positive at the end of the year.
Just my opinion from someone who has been through the ups and downs of this crazy wild ride we call sports betting.
ASJ
-veteran
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Lanny,
Hang in there boss and just a piece of advice from a long time capper......................
"Stick with it" and honestly, don't worry about the forum and the comments you get whether they are postive or negative. It makes no difference what everyone else thinks.
Betting on sports has alot of emotion in it and alot of numbers to review. Leave the emotion out of it and just focus on your capping. I have followed you for some time and yes, you are doing very well OVERALL.
Just look at the number and what you do. DROP the emotion and I can promise you, you will get back on track. You have a good talent. Do not get all tied up in the other members on the site. People will notice you, like they have in the last month or so that has passed.
Keep your head up and don't read too much into peoples posts.
DO WHAT YOU DO. Best of luck to you and I am sure you will be in the positive at the end of the year.
Just my opinion from someone who has been through the ups and downs of this crazy wild ride we call sports betting.
You'll turn it around...Have Faith in yourself....Slumps come and go....you got style and class and you know what your doing cuz your up for the year......
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You'll turn it around...Have Faith in yourself....Slumps come and go....you got style and class and you know what your doing cuz your up for the year......
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I await the turnaround with anticipation!
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