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MLB - Monday 5/18

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by thedegenerate:

 

If you recall, I had Richmond on my fade list.  this is a great price on CWS.  I got them at +155 !

very true, toronto seems overvalued here. BOL

 
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Posted: #27
holy cow. 80% of the lines just jumped 20-30 points in your favor.

amazing!!


 
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Posted: #28
GL GH
 
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Posted: #30
I have never really understood the term "value" when it comes to sports betting. Yes i get it that you feel Richmond is not worth the -165 but wouldn't that just make the game a no play instead of playing a dog that has not showen any bite what so even in this series. When the whole point is to make sure you win your bet, there is no "value" in a loss. From what i can see there are not stats or history to back this play.....


Quote Originally Posted by thedegenerate:

 

great spot to fade the Jays Garth.  no way should Richmond be a -165 fav.  lots of value on CWS.

 
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Posted: #31
 
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Posted: #32
JUICE: the point is its not necessary to win even half of the games when you take this approach - 45% is more than enough with +160 or higher tags
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by thedegenerate:

 

great spot to fade the Jays Garth.  no way should Richmond be a -165 fav.  lots of value on CWS.



I have never really understood the term "value" when it comes to sports betting. Yes i get it that you feel Richmond is not worth the -165 but wouldn't that just make the game a no play instead of playing a dog that has not showen any bite what so even in this series. When the whole point is to make sure you win your bet, there is no "value" in a loss. From what i can see there are not stats or history to back this play.....

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by happycap:

Game that SEA play is Vs. Lackey correct?


LACKEY!
 
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Posted: #35
Its worth remembering that you break even taking back +150 on 40 wagers won out of 100
 
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Posted: #36

Juicethis

 

baseball is all about value.  even the worst teams in history of MLB win on average more than 1 per 3 games.  as a result, there is a ton of value in horrible teams like WAS, SD and the likes.  just got to know when you are getting the most value on them.  haven't you noticed that GH plays WAS and SD quite a bit?  its because the lines are inflated and the value it on the dogs. 

 
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Posted: #37

Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:



LACKEY!

Merci  CAPS made me wonder ...

 
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Posted: #38
Lackey only pitched 2 pitches yesterday then was tossed
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by happycap:

JUICE: the point is its not necessary to win even half of the games when you take this approach - 45% is more than enough with +160 or higher tags


Ya i get that. Its just the stats and the history are so one sided in the jays game that it just seems like a bad idea. That being said that same play in the yanks game seems to make more sense as the stats are a bit closer as have all the games been in that series. Either way. Good luck GH.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by juicethis:



I have never really understood the term "value" when it comes to sports betting. Yes i get it that you feel Richmond is not worth the -165 but wouldn't that just make the game a no play instead of playing a dog that has not showen any bite what so even in this series. When the whole point is to make sure you win your bet, there is no "value" in a loss. From what i can see there are not stats or history to back this play.....



yea if you were going to bet 1 day during the whole baseball season then "value" isn't as important as a winner...but it's a marathon not a sprint and finding great value and sticking to your plays is the only way to win over an entire baseball season...otherwise you will keep trying to pick the winner and get juiced to death even at 50 games over .500
 
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Posted: #41

Quote Originally Posted by KOTWKiD:



yea if you were going to bet 1 day during the whole baseball season then "value" isn't as important as a winner...but it's a marathon not a sprint and finding great value and sticking to your plays is the only way to win over an entire baseball season...otherwise you will keep trying to pick the winner and get juiced to death even at 50 games over .500

Well put

 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by thedegenerate:

Juicethis

 

baseball is all about value.  even the worst teams in history of MLB win on average more than 1 per 3 games.  as a result, there is a ton of value in horrible teams like WAS, SD and the likes.  just got to know when you are getting the most value on them.  haven't you noticed that GH plays WAS and SD quite a bit?  its because the lines are inflated and the value it on the dogs. 



Forsure. But oddly enough it seems that GH follows (bets) those teams for awhile loses 4-6 in a row then stops betting them and they win (san diego in point this weekend). At what point does it lose its value and become a bad bet?
 
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Posted: #43
Good Luck GH 
Let's make some Sixto Lezcanos!
 
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Posted: #44
 
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Posted: #45

Quote Originally Posted by juicethis:



Forsure. But oddly enough it seems that GH follows (bets) those teams for awhile loses 4-6 in a row then stops betting them and they win (san diego in point this weekend). At what point does it lose its value and become a bad bet?

Great observation, but you only notice the teams that LOSE in that scenario, not the ones he played that won at a good rate, so it really screws our perception

 
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Posted: #46
GL
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by juicethis:



I have never really understood the term "value" when it comes to sports betting. Yes i get it that you feel Richmond is not worth the -165 but wouldn't that just make the game a no play instead of playing a dog that has not showen any bite what so even in this series. When the whole point is to make sure you win your bet, there is no "value" in a loss. From what i can see there are not stats or history to back this play.....



The SOX would only have to win this game 39 times out of 100 to show a profit...that the equivalent of a team going 63-99 for the season....Dye, Konerko, Thome, Pierzinski, Ramirez and Fields are no slouches and just because they are a bit cold, doesn't mean this game should be so heavily tilted in the Jays' favor when you look at the fact that they are facing a pitcher with a 5.52 home ERA who has allowed 10 earned runs in his last 9 2/3 innings.
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by steett19:

holy cow. 80% of the lines just jumped 20-30 points in your favor.

amazing!!




Do us all a favor douchebag and create your own thread and stay out of this one.
 
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Posted: #49
That may be true.
 
 
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Posted: #50

Quote Originally Posted by juicethis:



Forsure. But oddly enough it seems that GH follows (bets) those teams for awhile loses 4-6 in a row then stops betting them and they win (san diego in point this weekend). At what point does it lose its value and become a bad bet?

 

my advice is to focus on dogs Juice.  or favs under -120.  thats the safest way to bet in baseball.  any team can win at any time so that points to more dogs and less favs.  you don't have to win as many games either.  BOL

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