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MLB 5/11/16 Wild Wing Wednesday

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Posted: #1

Wild and wacky day yesterday as starting pitchers scored only 11 quality starts in 28 chances (28.2%). That won’t happen often as they normally score about 56% quality starts. These things have a way of returning to the median. 

MLB – 2016

36-33, $ +1,103.57, +8% RoR

5/11 Flat $200.00 

Indians -114, Salazar/Fister

Pretty much everything in favor of the Tribe today. Pitching, offense, run production and momentum. Salazar alone is worth 82 cents of line value over Fister. I don’t expect to see a complete meltdown of starting pitching across the board like we did yesterday.

Probably more later but I like to get day game selections out as early as possible.

BOL  

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Posted: #2
Final Card

Indians -114, Salazar/Fister

Tigers +143, Zimmermann/Scherzer

The Tigers have caught fire with their bats lately and recorded 9 quality performances in their last 12 outings versus righty. Scherzer is having a difficult time of it lately with just a 3-4 quality start record to date and his rating has dropped from his pre-season 73.4 to a current 65.2. He is vulnerable and the Tiger bats are hot. Zimmermann is to be forgiven for his one loss as he still turned in a quality effort and now stands at 6-0, a record he shares with only 3 other guys out of the 190 that have started a game this year. 10 minutes to guess the other 3 and I will be back with the answer.

Cardinals, -1.5 RL, +137, Garcia/Shoemaker

Someone is almost sure to mention how bad Garcia’s road performances have been to date, but I would tell them this. 1) Stats have a way of reaching a norm, or median if you prefer, and Jaime’s era will not remain at 1.98/5.73 home and away all season. He can be forgiven for his opener at Atlanta and his performance at Chase Field, truly a hitter’s paradise. Matt Shoemaker is, at best, a reluctant choice on the part of the Angels and is backed by a badly slumping offense.

BOL  

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Good Luck to you today Key 
 
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~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
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We are bound to hit the Tribe sooner or later. Lately I seem to be one day behind. I do like Salazar. Hopefully the offense doesn't decide to take the day off
 
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Posted: #9
like the Cards too 


Keep Calm and Bet 10 Play Over Parlays
 
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GL 
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Wild and wacky day yesterday as starting pitchers scored only 11 quality starts in 28 chances (28.2%). That won’t happen often as they normally score about 56% quality starts. These things have a way of returning to the median. 

MLB – 2016

36-33, $ +1,103.57, +8% RoR

5/11 Flat $200.00 

Indians -114, Salazar/Fister

Pretty much everything in favor of the Tribe today. Pitching, offense, run production and momentum. Salazar alone is worth 82 cents of line value over Fister. I don’t expect to see a complete meltdown of starting pitching across the board like we did yesterday.

Probably more later but I like to get day game selections out as early as possible.

BOL  


"mean"  
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Final Card

Indians -114, Salazar/Fister

Tigers +143, Zimmermann/Scherzer

The Tigers have caught fire with their bats lately and recorded 9 quality performances in their last 12 outings versus righty. Scherzer is having a difficult time of it lately with just a 3-4 quality start record to date and his rating has dropped from his pre-season 73.4 to a current 65.2. He is vulnerable and the Tiger bats are hot. Zimmermann is to be forgiven for his one loss as he still turned in a quality effort and now stands at 6-0, a record he shares with only 3 other guys out of the 190 that have started a game this year. 10 minutes to guess the other 3 and I will be back with the answer.

Cardinals, -1.5 RL, +137, Garcia/Shoemaker

Someone is almost sure to mention how bad Garcia’s road performances have been to date, but I would tell them this. 1) Stats have a way of reaching a norm, or median if you prefer, and Jaime’s era will not remain at 1.98/5.73 home and away all season. He can be forgiven for his opener at Atlanta and his performance at Chase Field, truly a hitter’s paradise. Matt Shoemaker is, at best, a reluctant choice on the part of the Angels and is backed by a badly slumping offense.

BOL  


I believe you're referring to the concept of "regression to the mean" in statistical analysis.  The median is not the same.

Not being a person, you're one of the best hardball cappers.....just one of those things that awkwardly sticks out to me as a statistician and quantitative analyst.  (I knew what you meant). 


Keep up the good work, Key.         
 
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Posted: #14
BOL Key 
 
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MJ's patented move, fadeeeeee away
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Thebigcat13:

MJ's patented move, fadeeeeee away
Welcome BACK to the forum. What was your former user name?
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Posted: #17
As always, your picks make a lot of sense.

Are you not a tad bit concerned though at Detroit's strange move to put Cabrera at 3rd base tonight (first ever start there) and give one of their hottest hitters a day off in Castellanos?  Not having Castellanos in the lineup is not a deal killer, but putting a very limited in mobility guy like Cabrera at 3rd base strikes me as a bit weird.  I hope it does not implode on them with a handful of errors.
 
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Posted: #18
i love wings by the way
Rw
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by lakerz:

As always, your picks make a lot of sense.

Are you not a tad bit concerned though at Detroit's strange move to put Cabrera at 3rd base tonight (first ever start there) and give one of their hottest hitters a day off in Castellanos?  Not having Castellanos in the lineup is not a deal killer, but putting a very limited in mobility guy like Cabrera at 3rd base strikes me as a bit weird.  I hope it does not implode on them with a handful of errors.
Is that right? Where did you hear that?


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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by lakerz:

As always, your picks make a lot of sense.

Are you not a tad bit concerned though at Detroit's strange move to put Cabrera at 3rd base tonight (first ever start there) and give one of their hottest hitters a day off in Castellanos?  Not having Castellanos in the lineup is not a deal killer, but putting a very limited in mobility guy like Cabrera at 3rd base strikes me as a bit weird.  I hope it does not implode on them with a handful of errors.


3B used to be Cabrera's primary position. He has nearly 700 MLB starts at 3B. Granted, he is not as agile as he once was.


 
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Good luck with the night games, Key. I am on the Cardinals as well.
 
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WoW
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:

WoW
Yeah, WoW, what are you doing here? I thought you worked on Wednesday, or pimped, or delivered newspapers or something like that. 
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Load the house on cards, key will not lose 7 in a row
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by BirdsOnBat:



3B used to be Cabrera's primary position. He has nearly 700 MLB starts at 3B. Granted, he is not as agile as he once was.


BoB, I was hoping he would reveal his source. I was curious if he got that from a 20 year old genius blogger or a senile old sports writer.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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