MLB 6/08 There I No Joy In Mudville

Your relatives you are stuck with; but all others you may like, dislike, or ignore as you choose.

Season, 38-43-12 / - $1,070.20, -4% RoR [versus average line of -106]

6/08 - $268 each – flat bets - [3% of bankroll, 10,000 +/- profit/loss]

FG – Athletics -195  – Duplantier/Bassitt

Comment: 

I have OAK & over 8.  2U pays 3.5.  

I ignore the relatives more ! 

Hang in there Key . I'm not exactly lighting the woods afire, but I still believe I can . I know you can. PS Stay away from those big favorites .

@cheeser

"PS Stay away from those big favorites" 

I just cashed two of them Sunday. Value is NOT the price you paid; it s what you GOT for what you paid. 

Something in my gut says Detroit.

Good Luck today

why is this line less than -200? considering the matchup and starting pitchers I would have thought -225 min.

True. But the penalties are steep if your team goes south. Seeing as how you post your ROI I dont hsve to tell you that. GL to you .

im seeing oak -225 now nice job getting in early

Why not Houston today?

GL tonight Key

Yes, there are a lot of plays that look like pitchers in a dominant role over the opponent.  Time to do your homework and see which ones are worthy of a play.  Never be afraid of laying money that give you a strong probability of a win.  Just be smart about it.

With that being said:

Dodgers FG -200

Giants FG -140

I also support the Oakland FG as a play.  I think it is a wise risk.

@backdooor_cover

 yup the key with betting faves is to pick the best spots

giants vs lowly rangers seems like a good pick , good spot for wood to bounce back, -180 is decent value should be at least -200

giants 7-3 last 10....rangers 1-9 

As also a very strong play, but -240 a hair to high for me, maybe on a parlay with something else

oakland puckline

@undermysac

"Something in my gut says Detroit." Probably that fish taco you had for lunch. Barf it up.

Being in the desperate straights I am in I am looking for other angles on the great American pastime. (Sincere) Opinions welcome.

The Grand Salami is posted at / Home -140 and total 133.5

My program says Home 65-63, and total 129.

That is not enough margin on Home, and although the under looks good on the total, I won't play tonight. Anyone else feel strongly about this? Spreading the risk makes one less vulnerable to fluctuations that occur in just one game. Experiment will continue.

Here's an angle, the Astros are going to smash Martin Perez

@dubz4dummyz

 Parlay will make the price worse.  You think you getting better value for the dollar but really you making your odds harder.  Don't parlay a good play.

@backdooor_cover

"Parlay will make the price worse"

Parlays are lottery tickets, the poor man's dream of riches.

It's Taco Tuesday around here and that is my domain. I have to get busy. See you guys later, nice discussion today.

@backdooor_cover

 way i look at is if you go 1-1 on singles you are losing money unless you hit on a + odds bet, but we are talking about juiced faves

if you go 2-0 you win the parlay, just like you would win the 2 singles bets, but if you go 1-1 you lose the full amount instead of the smaller loss on playing singles 

but if you play juiced odds on singles you need to hit at a better rate than 55%.....which as we know is hard to do regardless of odds 

@KeyElement

 parlays of 3-4+ plays are lotto tickets

2 pick parlays with the right odds you only need to hit at a 33% rate....

and playing single bets with juiced faves you will need to hit at a better rate than 55%

@backdooor_cover

 you have to account for the fact that you will also lose, of course if you were gonna hit at a 75%+ rate who cares bet all the single juiced faves you want....but its not realistic