MLB 7/20/16

MLB – 2016

122-115-1, + $ +1,406.84, +2.96% RoR

7/19, 2-1, +360.00

7/20, Flat $200.00 

Diamondbacks +156, Stroman/Corbin

The public has chosen their division winners and playoff teams and are now betting the devil out of them, beyond all reasonable expectations. Corbin is not much to shout about, but neither is Stroman or the BJ’s offense versus lefty. They are 13-15 on the season and have turned in just 2 quality offensive performances in their last 15 attempts. Stroman h2h is 13-6 on the year, but only 10-9 for quality starts and has turned in just 3 quality starts in his last 9 attempts. Those numbers tell you his personal and team wins are largely based on offense, and the offensive prospectus today is not very good. At -166 bettors are awarding the BJ’s a better than 62.4% chance of winning so they can realize 60 cents on the dollar of investment. To put it bluntly, that does not compute.

Probably more later.

BOL

Reporting some data on some plays the board didn’t like:

Braves, 1-1, made money, Reds 1-1, lost money

Twins 1-1, made money, Tigers 1-1, lost money

Crashdavis fade the Braves program is 1-1, -100 as the Reds closed a whopping -200 last night

How bout the over Key?

I like your analysis. 

Thanks, man.

I don't know where you got that figure but I would suggest double checking it. In any case it is hard to accept that so many bettors would even consider a dismal bottom dweller versus a contender, that just does not happen. As bad an indicator as it is even the Covers MLB Consensus is 71% Blue Jays.Funny money in a contest is one thing, but if the public actually is on the D-bax with real money they must be $5 bets or the line would have dropped like a rock. 

Yeah, I lean toward the over. BOL if you play it.

Have to agree,if 65% of bets or money is on Ari.the line should be moving down at some point,plus I don't think it is just small players taking them.
That is like  saying its not hot in Ari.at 120 degrees because its a dry heat,.

Stop picking on Arizona! It is a dry heat and by remaining in my den it doesn't bother me at all. If I go outside it just to fall in the pool, and that ain't no 120. 

I did not know you lived in Arizona,,I was just using that as an example to make a point,but is your pool like being in a bathtub?

GL today Key. Nothing like dry heat  We are looking at mid 90's with 85% humidity this weekend.

Much roomier, you know, plenty of room for one or more of those floating lounge chairs, with insulated cup holders as well. The trick is to get someone else to sweat over the grill, but at least even that is shaded. Beats the heck out of living on an Icelandic Coast that requires a parka in late June.

Thanks for the analysis, Key! In your opinion, Is this the easiest or toughest time to bet MLB and why? Lex Tim

no other plays?

Key, where you at in AZ? Valley area? East or west?

BOL Bud

Personally, my post yesterday was just sound advice about betting bad teams. D'Backs aren't horrible, but their rotation/pen is an absolute mess. Got rid of Ziegler., and they have sorely missed Pollock. Twins would have got you 2-1 today, but Braves 1-2 now. Now D'Backs getting slaughtered like they should be. Jays are hot. Betting against them with a bad team for the sake of plus money is just playing with fire. Wouldn't you be way more confident in +130 for the 1st place Rangers, or a monster +210 for the 1st place Giants?

Total rubbish. Want some sound advice?  Play each game on its merits, not based on generic nonsense such as avoiding 'bad' teams

Heh, not rubbish at all. I did give my opinion on it yesterday and here again, saying I think it is dangerous water treading. That doesn't mean I am bashing the style of play. I also said I'm pulling for him and he got 2 out of 3 yesterday on it. I am just curious if he (or you) think it's the way to go long-term.

As you said, those bad teams win 60-some games. We'll even say 70. Of those, they are playing other bad teams and mediocre ones that they can beat time to time. How often are they really going to beat the good teams? Especially now that we are in the 2nd half of the season, these teams are already playing players and scouting them for next season, and those fighting for a division spot are going to win in effect 2 out of 3.

The plus money isn't enough of a pay back to cover 2 losses for every 1 ordinarily. Or it's even as is the case with the Braves last 3 days, right?. If a team goes 70-92 and you take that team every day, you have to get a +1.31 average just to break even. They are going to be a favorite some games still, and if the take back is right, you might be able to make it. But with that comes a lot of headaches by being on a bad team's side. And you're saying they win 70 games. In the Braves case, they aren't. This is just my opinion. Not saying it is right, but I am actually trying to be helpful, not rubbish. Perhaps Key can give some insight into his thoughts on the strategy.

I bet each game in its own situation. I don't use generic logic to bet my games. The reason for my success the last two months is because I take every single possible thing into consideration. There is zero bias toward my plays, and I don't have a particular method other than I try to find great value plays, as we all should. If Key thought the right play was the D'Backs today because he saw something I and others didn't (guess it was the lefty trend, but that's where I went against a trend that should've turned around and it worked). If it was also because the public is heavy on the Jays, well, we found out why.

Finally, I am not saying this is all he does. I know some days he takes favorites, I'm following his threads. I just noticed yesterday it was two days in a row all dogs, not one favorite. So it got me curious and offering my opinion, perhaps unwanted, but hey, we ARE on a forum. lol

F U C K
 I was out all day and did not get my bet down
Good for you for not taking them today
Even and on to tomorrow?

"Betting against them with a bad team for the sake of plus money is just playing with fire."

Do you really think that was his sole reason for making the bet?

I thought you were an idiot before due to your "don't bet on bad teams" rule

I've now changed my mind. I KNOW you're an idiot