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MLB 7/21/16

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Posted: #1

MLB – 2016

122-116-1, + $ +1,206.84, +2.53% RoR

7/20, 0-1, -200.00

7/21, Flat $200.00 

Orioles +106, Tillman (13-7)/Sabathia (7-9)

17-3 vs. 8-8 Team record with this starter

Brewers +163, Garza (2-4)/Liriano (7-11)

1-5 vs. 8-10 Team record with this starter

White Sox -122, Pelfrey (7-10)/Shields (9-9)

7-11 vs. 3-5 Team record with this starter

Do the Yankees look like a favorite?

Does Liriano look overvalued at -173?

Pelfrey is near an auto-fade, Shields showing progress.

Would these lines be where they are if each teams record was the same as the starters quality start record or the team record with that starter on the hill?

BOL 

Crashdavis fade the Braves program is 2-1, +/-0.00 as the Reds won last night.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #2
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

MLB – 2016

122-116-1, + $ +1,206.84, +2.53%
RoR

7/20, 0-1, -200.00

7/21, Flat $200.00 

Orioles +106, Tillman
(13-7)/Sabathia (7-9)

17-3 vs. 8-8 Team
record with this starter

Brewers +163, Garza (2-4)/Liriano
(7-11)

1-5 vs. 8-10 Team
record with this starter

White Sox -122, Pelfrey (7-10)/Shields
(9-9)

7-11 vs. 3-5 Team
record with this starter

Do the Yankees look
like a favorite?

Does Liriano look
overvalued at -173?

Pelfrey is near an
auto-fade, Shields showing progress.

Would these lines
be where they are if each teams record was the same as the starters quality
start record or the team record with that starter on the hill?

BOL 

Crashdavis fade the
Braves program is 2-1, +/-0.00 as the Reds won last night.

Sorry looks like a Yankees Sweep...GL KEY'
STAY HUNGRY MY FRIENDS!!!!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Best of fortune! I say no more now. 
 
Legend
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Posted: #4
 
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Posted: #5
Just a heads up Key..the flu is going through the Os right now like "something" through a Christmas goose!
 
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Posted: #6
MLB has a lot of streaks and swings. TEX can't win and BAL can't hit...BAL hit 56 HRs in June and now they've hit 15?
 
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Posted: #7
love the Orioles I was looking at that all night
 
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Posted: #8
Today's O's starting lineup. Makeshift style outfield today?? and yes a stomach bug going around but it all comes down to Sabathia keeping the ball down which will not occur this afternoon??
1.Nolan Reimold (R) LF
2. Jonathan Schoop (R) 2B
3. Manny Machado (R) 3B
4. Mark Trumbo (R) DH
5. Chris Davis (L) 1B
6. J.J. Hardy (R) SS
7. Ryan Flaherty (L) RF
8. Caleb Joseph (R) C
9. Julio Borbon (L)
 
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Posted: #9
Do the Yankees look like a favorite?  Yes, actually.  The O's were favored in game 1 and lost 2-1, then got beat up the next 2 games as a dog.  They have scored 2 runs in 3 games 
 
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Posted: #10

I got called out on a minor emergency yesterday and never got the chance to post more plays or respond to questions, so I will make an effort now, at least the worthy ones.

Quote Originally Posted by LexingtonTim:

Thanks for the analysis, Key! In your opinion, Is this the easiest or toughest time to bet MLB and why? Lex Tim
I think the best time (never easy) is between May 1st and mid-August. By May 1st the players have shown some consistent form and by mid-August too many amateurs have abandoned baseball for football and the pool of players has narrowed down to the serious ones, and that sharpens the lines.

Quote Originally Posted by Rauchy76:

Key, where you at in AZ? Valley area? East or west?
Far East end, roughly 202/Broadway, close to Apache Junction.

Now I will look at what has transpired so far this morning. 

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #11
Frankly gentlemen, as long as Tillman is healthy and starts against Sabathia I don't care who is in what lineup. If Tillman is hit with the flu bug he won't start and that cancels the play. Unless of course you are idiot enough to enter "action" plays, but in that case there is no hope for you anyway.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #12
Problem is, O's lineup is struggling so bad right now they are making bad pitchers (Nova and Pineda) look good. They have actually got some decent pitching performances the last couple of nights. It's their offense that has been the problem!

 
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Posted: #13
Injuries and  the Bird flu...
 
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Posted: #14
OK, whatever you say guys.
 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #15
17-3 is all you need to know, don't overthink things..
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

I got called out on a minor emergency yesterday
and never got the chance to post more plays or respond to questions, so I will
make an effort now, at least the worthy ones.

Quote Originally Posted by LexingtonTim:


Thanks for the analysis, Key! In your opinion, Is this the easiest or toughest
time to bet MLB and why? Lex Tim
I think the best time (never
easy) is between May 1st and mid-August. By May 1st the
players have shown some consistent form and by mid-August too many amateurs
have abandoned baseball for football and the pool of players has narrowed down
to the serious ones, and that sharpens the lines.

Quote Originally Posted by Rauchy76:

Key,
where you at in AZ? Valley area? East or west?
Far East end,
roughly 202/Broadway, close to Apache Junction.

Now I will look at what has transpired so far
this morning.


Oh wow, small world...I'm in Superstition Springs (power/baseline area)...BOL in the picks today, I dig all 3
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

I got called out on a minor emergency yesterday
and never got the chance to post more plays or respond to questions, so I will
make an effort now, at least the worthy ones.

Quote Originally Posted by LexingtonTim:


Thanks for the analysis, Key! In your opinion, Is this the easiest or toughest
time to bet MLB and why? Lex Tim
I think the best time (never
easy) is between May 1st and mid-August. By May 1st the
players have shown some consistent form and by mid-August too many amateurs
have abandoned baseball for football and the pool of players has narrowed down
to the serious ones, and that sharpens the lines.

Quote Originally Posted by Rauchy76:

Key,
where you at in AZ? Valley area? East or west?
Far East end,
roughly 202/Broadway, close to Apache Junction.

Now I will look at what has transpired so far
this morning.


Crazy, small world...I'm in Superstition Springs area...BOL on the plays today, I dig all 3.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Rauchy76:

 
Crazy, small world...I'm in Superstition Springs area...BOL on the plays today, I dig all 3.
Lunch at R.T. O'Sullivan's some day? 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

OK, whatever you say guys.


Sigh...I feel for ya man, everyone has an opinion up in these threads...keep on keeping on brutha.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Rauchy76:



Sigh...I feel for ya man, everyone has an opinion up in these threads...keep on keeping on brutha.

Yeah, life really sucks. People having differing opinions and all. 

I mean, yesterday this guy was very confident and borderline arrogant about his Arizona pick. They went on to lose 10-4.

Today, the Baltimore bats showed up and he is probably going to get a win.

You win some, you lose some.

But, don't get all bent out of shape when people don't agree with you! It's a message board! As long as people aren't blatantly trolling you, they are entitled to post whatever they want!

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Frankly gentlemen, as long as Tillman is healthy and starts against Sabathia I don't care who is in what lineup. If Tillman is hit with the flu bug he won't start and that cancels the play. Unless of course you are idiot enough to enter "action" plays, but in that case there is no hope for you anyway.
Tillman 4, Sabathia 1,  got the matchup I wanted.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Frankly gentlemen, as long as Tillman is healthy and starts against Sabathia I don't care who is in what lineup. If Tillman is hit with the flu bug he won't start and that cancels the play. Unless of course you are idiot enough to enter "action" plays, but in that case there is no hope for you anyway.

Wasn't bashing or hatin' just letting you know. I was on the O's too!
Win

Risk / To Win Amount:  Accepted 7/21/2016 11:08 AM - EST
Won:   
Amount Paid:   
 
Sport / Period:MLB Baseball  /  Game
Line:
 		Baltimore Orioles  7/21/2016 1:05:01 PM - (EST)
+108
Opponent:New York Yankees
Pitchers:C Tillman - R - Must Pitch     C Sabathia - L - Must Pitc

 
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Posted: #23
Well played on the O's

I have only been on the forum for a couple years, read it for a few years before joining.

Remember when people talked more about the sport at hand? When constructive criticism was mature, responses were directed w/ class?

All I see now is people coming into threads telling them what they're doing wrong.
 
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Posted: #24
If only there was a filter to distinguish posts that analysed games from those that analysed posters. This board would be sensational (and very quick) to read

Key I'm sure I recall from last year or before that you saying you'd never bet Garza? Or was that Gallardo?! My memory is not great!
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Well played on the O's

I have only been on the forum for a couple years, read it for a few years before joining.

Remember when people talked more about the sport at hand? When constructive criticism was mature, responses were directed w/ class?

All I see now is people coming into threads telling them what they're doing wrong.
Every year brings a new variety of rocket scientists that are going to straighten out the proven winners. They come, they go, then usually return under a new username and repeat the same old habits. Einstein would call them insane, but that is not a concept they can readily absorb.

As for more class, NO, it has always been the same, because the same old crowd can not accept the concept that someone (anyone?) knows more than they do; about sports, about sports gambling, or odds and probability. The Covers MLB Forum is very repetitive atmosphere, and gives confidence to bookies around the world.

BTW: ratbastard, I know how you roll and took no offense at what you posted. That is an advantage that comes with years of a guy posting under the same moniker and making friends.   

 to all
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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