MLB Daily 6/14/24 Plus Commentary

MLB Daily 2024 / ($1.00 is my unit, 100 units per play)

Record 23-22-8, -33.21, RoR -0.8%

6/14

F5 Yankees RL, -115, Gil/Bello

I am doing something here I hate to do. I do not believe in laying both runs and odds in an MLB game. That is a football-basketball thing we are pretty much stuck with since most folks don’t play the money line in those sports. Amen.

Today there is no reason whatsoever Bello should survive 5 innings versus the Yankee bats, while Gil could very easily shut down the BoSox. My computer predicts as high as a 6-1 Yankees F5 win, and I am not going to argue with it. There are many factors involved, but the greatest is that according to my program Gill rates 32.3 points above average and Bello 14.3 points below average, based on a scale of 0 to 100, with the average being 63. That’s right, a potential rookie of the year rates a 95.3 on a scale of 0 to100.  

BOL  

My analysis of the run line / -1 line combination probability

The concept was posted yesterday on Covers, not by me

You obviously have 2.8 units at risk, 3 possible outcomes

Dodgers lose the game – minus 2.8 units

Dodgers win by 1 run - +/- 0

Dodgers win by 2 or more – win 2.15 units

So, in the best case scenario you will win 2.15 units on a risk of 2.8 units

2.15/2.8 = 76.8% return on risk

You wagered a lot for the same profit potential a -130 favorite would have returned, but had only a one in three possibility of turning a profit, whether you flat play or add the juice. IMHO it just doesn’t make sense. The -130 favorite stood a one in two possibility of turning a profit. There are no slick, intricate ways you gain an advantage on the house. Far better mathematicians than you have worked out formulas that always benefit the house. Exotic bets and attempting to “cover your ass” is never going to work in the long run.

There, just like many times in the past sixteen years, I have wasted my time, energy, and talent on something that will never be respected by the Covers Fraternity. Yippee!  

Great write up as always. 

Nice job as usual, Sir.

Best of luck.

@GGGaming, @henrylazarde

Are u serious the same bet again...

and I hate them.... Orioles fan.....

Gil   is flat filthy.....

I am out for the next couple hours, on my phone. Will answer you guys when I get back to my desk.

@KeyElement

What do you think of Tigers First Five?

Go Spankies   

@KeyElement

 Agreed on selecting RL or ML for a given game, especially if you can squeak out a slight edge w/ one vs the other.

GL tonight Sir 

@Premian

Add: F5 Tigers -115, Skubal/Brown 

There is your answer. Thanx for calling my attention to it. I was so busy hurrying to get out of here I jumped right over it. My bad. The Tigers are not a clean sweep of important factors, hence no run line wager, like the Yankees, but they are a clear choice. Bol and thanx again.

@bigred84

 I hate them too man. Royals fan, but you should never let your heart dictate to your wallet!

@MrECapps

 It should always be a consideration, but I love it when the -$ become +$. Every game is its own monster, and you can quote me on that.

I need another break now, tend to some paperwork for my son 

Been a busy day here last minute but going with the Pirates F5

@backdooor_cover

 BOL 

Add a win and a push to my figures. Yankees EZ, Tigers push 0-0. 

+87 units

@KeyElement

Great call on NYY 1st 5. I played them RL 1st 5 -105, parlayed with ATL RL -120 and UNC -145 live. Just need ATL to finish it for a nice payday. 

@KeyElement

Congrats on the Spankees win, even the Skubal push was good.  

@KeyElement

 I am going to have to cancel my appointments if you keep winning.

Congrats on another push.

@KeyElement

 I am going to have to cancel my appointments if you keep winning.

Congrats on another push.

Key, I rately read your threads, but it was brought to my attention that you called me out. I thought you were in your 70 or 80’s? You act like your 12. Are you not getting enough attn? 

I have a handful of friends that do this professionally. Not one of them flat bets and they all lay -1 on big home MLB faves/big NHL Faves. The math says you should always do that. Quit spreading misinformation with your fake computer programs. And stop with the unsolicited advice. 

i don’t think I’ve ever called someone out on covers. But you’re a prick, man. 

I forgot to add why your -1 advice is so bad. In your terrible example, you noted that each outcome has a roughly 33% chance of hitting. You make no mention of the implied probability of a -190 favorite winning. You make no mention that over 30% of MLB games end by 1 run and that number gets closer to 40% on home teams. You basically did 5th grade math for us and are tying to come off as some wizard. You make no sense.

Okay, rant over. I won’t be looking for a reply. So don’t bother. However, people should know you’re a phony that pretends to be intelligent. 

@KeyElement

Your results are great.  Please don't mind the rants.

This thread has POTENTIAL