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MLB Line Experiment

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Posted: #351
Quote Originally Posted by d41reds:

WNBA[655] CONNECTICUT SUN+2½-110


small play


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Posted: #352
Thank you d41. So This lean might not be because of the line go up right? sorry my bad english.
 
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Posted: #353
Well it is high but i see it moving to like 160 possibily but i see the jays taking game 3 in there park after the mets just got 2 in theres i could see the role taking part like that as the same goes with dodgers texas took 2 games now i see them going back home and taking there 2 now there are some teams that are 1-1 in series interleague plays that would be atl/bos   sf/sea  tb/wash  and so on
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Posted: #354
I really don't see alot of 4-0 sweeps for teams that are 2-0 and not alot of 3-1 series wins at most i see is the teams splitting pairs thats just way i am looking at it
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Posted: #355
Again thank you. I have learned a lot about reading lines with you. Good night. 
 
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Posted: #356
YW coman have a good night and thanks
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Posted: #357
Thx again d41 tonight! any good looking lines for tomorrow yet?
 
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Posted: #358
Yw silver...I am looking at games and trying to place how they will be played out tomorrow here you see anything right now...did you play that ari/laa game or the wnba suns game i posted?
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Posted: #359
Quote Originally Posted by d41reds:

Yw silver...I am looking at games and trying to place how they will be played out tomorrow here you see anything right now...did you play that ari/laa game or the wnba suns game i posted?

I play TEX/KC
small parlay for WNBA and CLEV
 
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Posted: #360
Thanks.  First day on the thread.  I did well today.  Laa pending and I will do great.   Thanks.  Hope to learn a lot.  Thanks guys.
 
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Posted: #361
Nice job silver on the tex/kc clev just didn't have it but least the nba is done.


Justin yw and ty well glad you ended up doing good tonight hopefully can continue tomorrow.i will be here pretty late talk games might post something i see ect...
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Posted: #362
d41 I sent u msg. Did u check it?
 
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Posted: #363
current roster players have faced kershaw but hamilton is out those other 6 have a team batting average of .160 and choo and fielder combined 3 for 18 vs kershaw wandy rodriguez the current dodgers he has faced take away crawford they are hitting .297 6 HR off wandy chris heisey likes wandy as he has 3 HR off him this game goes over and i would back the run line with the dodgers as texas will not beat dodgers in there park good road team or not
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Posted: #364
Quote Originally Posted by d41reds:

I really don't see alot of 4-0 sweeps for teams that are 2-0 and not alot of 3-1 series wins at most i see is the teams splitting pairs thats just way i am looking at it

Hey d41 I am trying my best to follow the pattern you outlined but I cannot seem to grasp it. Can anyone explain what you are looking for in the lines? Is it if someone starts off as +money then ends up minus by game time? Thanks for your time!!
 
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Posted: #365
what do you think about yankees? it opened -168, now it's -200 but according to some sources only 53% of bets are on new york. seems like bookies see new york as a winner today
 
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Posted: #366
as far as i seen line movements, i see NYY, TOR and CIN. what do you think D?
 
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Posted: #367
BAL has a line of -165. It's 4-0 on my record when a team with -165 wins the game
 
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Posted: #368
Hey d41reds,

I actually took what you said and looked at every line put out in June so far and wrote down the stats but I actually have taken everything a step further.

I have stats on where the line opens and if it is a home team or road team that is favored and also if there was at least 70% public or more backing the team on the moneyline or the run line as well as which way the line moved and closed at. Did it move with the public money or opposite of the public money and also if there was no majority public money on either side did the line move with the favorite or away from the favorite.

I have been using these stats the last few days and been killing it. 

I can give input on what games seem to be the best if you guys would like based on the opening line and which way it moves based on road or home team and public or no public money. 

This is your thread but figured if it helps anyone be good to contribute. 

Let me know if you guys are interested in what it shows for today's games. Yesterday it went 5-1 and has had a winning record and made money everyday I have been tracking it.  Hope everyone wins! 
 
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Posted: #369
hey emerald. really interested in your experiments. also sent you a friend request, please accept it :)
 
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Posted: #370
Quote Originally Posted by kribag:

hey emerald. really interested in your experiments. also sent you a friend request, please accept it :)

Hey kribag, I accepted your friend request. As it gets closer to game time I will let you guys know what it looks like the best plays are for tonight based on everything I have used and what the record is for the particular line for the team in that situation. (example: home or road team, public or no public money and opening line based on which way it moved ) 
 
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Posted: #371
Quote Originally Posted by kribag:

BAL has a line of -165. It's 4-0 on my record when a team with -165 wins the game

Hey Kribag, here is an example with this game.

So the site I have used for these has Baltimore opening as a -160 favorite  The line has moved to Baltimore being -172 . So overall in this situation teams have been 8-2. 

If you look closer at it though Baltimore has heavy public money backing them and adding this into the equation teams that have opened -160 with heavy public money on them have gone 7-2 with my records in June. 

We need to add one more thing into the equation though. Baltimore is on the road. So when looking at this with everything else there has only been one spot so far and the -160 favorite road team with heavy public money and the spread moving with them was 0-1. That team lost by 1 run. 

In this same spot but the teams being at home they have gone 7-1.

So i would say only because they are on the road I might stay away from it as we don't have enough sample size yet. Up to you though. Overall though if you put home teams and road teams together like I said it is 7-2 so not a bad spot in that way. 
 
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Posted: #372
Quote Originally Posted by emeraldsports:

Hey d41reds,

I actually took what you said and looked at every line put out in June so far and wrote down the stats but I actually have taken everything a step further.

I have stats on where the line opens and if it is a home team or road team that is favored and also if there was at least 70% public or more backing the team on the moneyline or the run line as well as which way the line moved and closed at. Did it move with the public money or opposite of the public money and also if there was no majority public money on either side did the line move with the favorite or away from the favorite.

I have been using these stats the last few days and been killing it. 

I can give input on what games seem to be the best if you guys would like based on the opening line and which way it moves based on road or home team and public or no public money. 

This is your thread but figured if it helps anyone be good to contribute. 

Let me know if you guys are interested in what it shows for today's games. Yesterday it went 5-1 and has had a winning record and made money everyday I have been tracking it.  Hope everyone wins! 


Hey emerald awesome stuff you have as well yes do share as i think were all here to help each other win and any info that could help each other out is highly appreciated.thanks emerald.



im just waking so be a few i am up to late in mornings.
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Posted: #373
Quote Originally Posted by Markygz:


Hey d41 I am trying my best to follow the pattern you outlined but I cannot seem to grasp it. Can anyone explain what you are looking for in the lines? Is it if someone starts off as +money then ends up minus by game time? Thanks for your time!!


Hey there marky i am just waking and moving around.But what we are doing is monitoring the lines as they open til game time watching the movement and picking the team to win by the line. not sure if you have looked over page one then follow the pages and look everything over.
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Posted: #374
Looking at some lines right now looks like CIN  PIT SF teams that win there is a few more but need to watch the line see which way they go to help sort it out 
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