All Forums | MLB Betting

MLB picks using Monte Carlo simulation

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 87809
Posts: 499
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 290
Posted: #151
haha man you bet everything :).. I think imma only stick to baseball and hockey + nba.. its what i know :D 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 290
Posted: #152
Good luck today , lets get it! 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 344
Posted: #153
I like action.  Hockey and basketball were good yesterday.  I have statistics on everything.  Not one basketball game I like today.  Soccer is already 1-0.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 344
Posted: #154
Todd Helton just destroyed a good day with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.  6-6 +1.95 units instead, -0.34 for the year.  Totals beta 2-0 +2 units  18-26 -10.6 units overall.  Hockey and Golf made it a slightly bigger winner.

Mets 171 (1x)
Rays -115 (3x)
Orioles 141 (1x)
Astros 190 (1x)
Tigers 102 (5x)
Indians -117 (2x)
Diamondbacks 106 (5x)
Angels 164 (1x)

Orioles u9.5
Mets u7
Giants u7
Dodgers u6.5

Kings -2.5 (1x)
Grizzlies -5 (1x)
Mavericks 2 (2x)
Heat -3 (1x)

Predators 137 (2x)
Canucks 104  (2x)

Lazio -115  (1x)
Atletico Madrid 115 (1x)

Wozniacki -250 (1x)

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2005
Posts: 358
Posted: #155
GL brother

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 344
Posted: #156
Quote Originally Posted by pramsey1843:

Todd Helton just destroyed a good day with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.  6-6 +1.95 units instead, -0.34 for the year.  Totals beta 2-0 +2 units  18-26 -10.6 units overall.  Hockey and Golf made it a slightly bigger winner.

Mets 171 (1x)
Rays -115 (3x)
Orioles 141 (1x)
Astros 190 (1x)
Tigers 102 (5x)
Indians -117 (2x)
Diamondbacks 106 (5x)
Angels 164 (1x)

Orioles u9.5
Mets u7
Giants u7
Dodgers u6.5

Kings -2.5 (1x)
Grizzlies -5 (1x)
Mavericks 2 (2x)
Heat -3 (1x)

Predators 137 (2x)
Canucks 104  (2x)

Lazio -115  (1x)
Atletico Madrid 115 (1x)

Wozniacki -250 (1x)


These are tomorrows plays
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 290
Posted: #157
whats going on with the hockey system? 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 290
Posted: #158
i mean the baseball 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2002
Posts: 24
Posted: #159
i have been doing this for a long time(i'm old).any data showing how big the swings can be?ie;from - to +.109 units is impressive,but what kind of swings would you have to endiure.lot of games everyday.appreciate all the work you've put in,just wondering from that aspect how ugly it can get before it swings back to median.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2002
Posts: 9792
Posted: #160

Curous to know how you model makes assumptions on what matchups it should consider - specifically what RP's would be the most likely to come in late in the game.  Do you base it on probabilistics (of appearing in the next game) due to previous IP's?  If a team is heavy on Lefty hitting, do the Lefty RP's get more weight?

Also - how much weight do you put on historical data?  I have always found that to be pretty unreliable once you normalize it over a large population.

Best of luck to you.  Would be cool if this bears out profitable over a couple of seasons.

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 344
Posted: #161
Swings are big sometimes but I use a a unit as 1/3 of a percent of my bankroll. 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 344
Posted: #162
Probable relief pitchers are calculated based on potential matchups and normal operations that club.  Some times have a 7,8,9 inning guy and don't do much with matchups.  Some teams matchup until the 9th inning.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 344
Posted: #163
Todays plays

Mets 171 (1x)
Rays -115 (3x)
Orioles 141 (1x)
Astros 190 (1x)
Tigers 102 (5x)
Indians -117 (2x)
Diamondbacks 106 (5x)
Angels 164 (1x)

Orioles u9.5
Mets u7
Giants u7
Dodgers u6.5

Kings -2.5 (1x)
Grizzlies -5 (1x)
Mavericks 2 (2x)
Heat -3 (1x)

Predators 137 (2x)
Canucks 104  (2x)

Lazio -115  (1x)
Atletico Madrid 115 (1x)

Wozniacki -250 (1x)
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 344
Posted: #164
Baseball system is ok.  It is a grind.  Hockey lol is awesome right now.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 344
Posted: #165
Rays 114 (5x)
Mets 156 (3x)
Rockies -130 (2x)
White Sox -123 (2x)
Diamondbacks -132 (2x)
A's 185 (3x)
Phillies -106 (5x)
Diamondbacks -1.5 150 (1x)
Tigers -1.5 -110 (2x)
Nationals -1.5 -110  (1x)

Mets u7.5
Tigers u7.5
A's u6.5 (2x)
Phillies u6 (2x)

Hawks -4.5
76ers -3.5
Nuggets 5.5
Mavericks 3.5
Thunder -2.5

Bruins u5 (2x)
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 290
Posted: #166
 your system needs some tuning huh -_-
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 344
Posted: #167
3-5 +4.95 units.  +4.61 units overall.  The totals system is going back to the drawing board will be rebeta tested in two weeks with some tweaks.  I guess Mike would rather win them all than make money.  The only system that I am claiming is baseball runline/moneyline.  Someone asked what I was playing so I put my whole card up for information.  I guarantee +100 units up this season by end of baseball season.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 344
Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by pramsey1843:

Rays 114 (5x)
Mets 156 (3x)
Rockies -130 (2x)
White Sox -123 (2x)
Diamondbacks -132 (2x)
A's 185 (3x)
Phillies -106 (5x)
Diamondbacks -1.5 150 (1x)
Tigers -1.5 -110 (2x)
Nationals -1.5 -110  (1x)

Mets u7.5
Tigers u7.5
A's u6.5 (2x)
Phillies u6 (2x)

Hawks -4.5
76ers -3.5
Nuggets 5.5
Mavericks 3.5
Thunder -2.5

Bruins u5 (2x)

forgot to give units in basketball
Mavs 3.5 (5x)
Thunder -2.5 (5x)
Nuggets 5.5 (2x)
Hawks -4.5 (3x)
76ers -3.5 (2x)
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 344
Posted: #169
Now one could wager Angels -179 (3x) today.  


If Angels were to win you would break even.  If A's won you would make 0.18 units.  I like the A's pick and it is the play, but I just wanted to point out an opportunity to wager $0 to make $18.  This is a good way to build a bankroll when you make plays early.  I won't count it on the system, but I would consider the play.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 344
Posted: #170
I assume at some point in the season, I will have a swing of 20 units either way in a short period of time.  Those are about as big as it gets.  In my back testing, their was one variation slightly larger but it is rare.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 3600
Posted: #171
GL, 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 344
Posted: #172
Now that was a good night.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 4739
Posted: #173
Great night ramsey...i've been following since beginning of baseball season.  I'll keep following you throughout 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 344
Posted: #174
6-4 +9.62 units on the day +14.23 units overall.  The totals beta is still struggling but went 3-1 1.8 units.  I am going to tweak it for the next week.  I have found a couple of things in the totals beta that I hated.  We will continue tweaking.  

Tomorrows picks 
Twins 215 (2x)
Astros 156 (1x)
Rays 122 (1x)
Mets -103 (2x)
Rangers 112 (2x)
Cubs 161 (3x)
White Sox -130 (1x)
Dodgers 114 (1x)
Tigers -114 (1x)
Reds 107 (2x)
Phillies 132 (1x)
Diamondbacks -1.5 115 (2x)
Angels -1.5 110 (1x)

Astros u7
Rays u8
Mets u7
Cubs u7
Reds u7.5
Pirates u8.5


Coyotes 134 (2x)
Predators 152 (2x)

Real Madrid 170 (2x)
Bayern Munich Over 2.5 -115 (1x)
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 344
Posted: #175
Anyone just picking this post up.  The post tracks the baseball runline/moneyline system and a beta test for a baseball totals system.  The rest of my plays are only posted because someone requested much earlier.  I make all the plays I post, but really stand proudly behind the baseball runline/moneyline system.  I love action and can generated some major big swings, but the trendline is always up.
All Forums | MLB Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2025 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.