Ok sims, being a rookie, I have to ask a rookie question. We know that the best professional handicappers will only win at about a 60 to 65 % rate. So why on earth would someone bet 13 different games in one day. Say you hit the 65% mark, you won't make any real money. Would it not be better to play your 3 best picks. That seems to me that would be the way to go. I'm sitting at my desk, teach me.
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Ok sims, being a rookie, I have to ask a rookie question. We know that the best professional handicappers will only win at about a 60 to 65 % rate. So why on earth would someone bet 13 different games in one day. Say you hit the 65% mark, you won't make any real money. Would it not be better to play your 3 best picks. That seems to me that would be the way to go. I'm sitting at my desk, teach me.
Ok sims, being a rookie, I have to ask a rookie question. We know that the best professional handicappers will only win at about a 60 to 65 % rate. So why on earth would someone bet 13 different games in one day. Say you hit the 65% mark, you won't make any real money. Would it not be better to play your 3 best picks. That seems to me that would be the way to go. I'm sitting at my desk, teach me.
I certainly don't want to speak for Sims but it is my feeling that baseball is the only sport in which you can bet this many games and still be successful, simply because it is a sport in which you don't have to hit at a 60-65% rate to be successful. I for example am below .500 record wise this year in MLB but I am still up units. Sometimes hovering around 50% will get it done in MLB because you aren't paying -110 juice like you do in other sports with a point spread wager. Today he is averaging slightly +money per wager meaning if he hits at the 50% clip he likely shows a profit.
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Quote Originally Posted by raghead:
Ok sims, being a rookie, I have to ask a rookie question. We know that the best professional handicappers will only win at about a 60 to 65 % rate. So why on earth would someone bet 13 different games in one day. Say you hit the 65% mark, you won't make any real money. Would it not be better to play your 3 best picks. That seems to me that would be the way to go. I'm sitting at my desk, teach me.
I certainly don't want to speak for Sims but it is my feeling that baseball is the only sport in which you can bet this many games and still be successful, simply because it is a sport in which you don't have to hit at a 60-65% rate to be successful. I for example am below .500 record wise this year in MLB but I am still up units. Sometimes hovering around 50% will get it done in MLB because you aren't paying -110 juice like you do in other sports with a point spread wager. Today he is averaging slightly +money per wager meaning if he hits at the 50% clip he likely shows a profit.
is it better to go 2-1 or 10-5 in 1 day? the same right, assuming you have the same number of units at risk?
if you are playing all plays the same units, it would better to go 10-5, right?
btw - nobody wins at 65%...the best will win at 54-57% consistently.
That's exactly what i'm saying, you're not betting 1 unit across the board. 8 of your plays are for 2 units. So lets say you hit at 57%, with a mix of 1 and 2 unit plays, I can't believe it would be that profitable. If I'm wrong, please forgive me, like I've said, I'm new at this.
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Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:
not following raghead...
is it better to go 2-1 or 10-5 in 1 day? the same right, assuming you have the same number of units at risk?
if you are playing all plays the same units, it would better to go 10-5, right?
btw - nobody wins at 65%...the best will win at 54-57% consistently.
That's exactly what i'm saying, you're not betting 1 unit across the board. 8 of your plays are for 2 units. So lets say you hit at 57%, with a mix of 1 and 2 unit plays, I can't believe it would be that profitable. If I'm wrong, please forgive me, like I've said, I'm new at this.
sims keep the big cards comin... When i got 3 more bricks in the bank after followin ur picks for the 2nd half of the season i will hire someone to figure out the math behind big cards vs. small ones. glglgl today
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sims keep the big cards comin... When i got 3 more bricks in the bank after followin ur picks for the 2nd half of the season i will hire someone to figure out the math behind big cards vs. small ones. glglgl today
That's exactly what i'm saying, you're not betting 1 unit across the board. 8 of your plays are for 2 units. So lets say you hit at 57%, with a mix of 1 and 2 unit plays, I can't believe it would be that profitable. If I'm wrong, please forgive me, like I've said, I'm new at this.
Ummm.... look at his record? How do you not see the profit? Math theory will tell you that at 57% it doesn't matter if its 1,2,3 or even a mix of 5 units. It will end up as profit in the end
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Quote Originally Posted by raghead:
That's exactly what i'm saying, you're not betting 1 unit across the board. 8 of your plays are for 2 units. So lets say you hit at 57%, with a mix of 1 and 2 unit plays, I can't believe it would be that profitable. If I'm wrong, please forgive me, like I've said, I'm new at this.
Ummm.... look at his record? How do you not see the profit? Math theory will tell you that at 57% it doesn't matter if its 1,2,3 or even a mix of 5 units. It will end up as profit in the end
Ummm.... look at his record? How do you not see the profit? Math theory will tell you that at 57% it doesn't matter if its 1,2,3 or even a mix of 5 units. It will end up as profit in the long run
The higher the unit is simply just a stronger play for him
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Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:
Ummm.... look at his record? How do you not see the profit? Math theory will tell you that at 57% it doesn't matter if its 1,2,3 or even a mix of 5 units. It will end up as profit in the long run
The higher the unit is simply just a stronger play for him
Thanks to all of you, I try to learn something new everyday. I'm currently at 17-11 on WBA, and most of those picks were mine. However, I do look at what the top cappers here pick, and when they pick with me good, and when they pick opposite, I pass on that play.
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Thanks to all of you, I try to learn something new everyday. I'm currently at 17-11 on WBA, and most of those picks were mine. However, I do look at what the top cappers here pick, and when they pick with me good, and when they pick opposite, I pass on that play.
i am probably around 60-40 on 2 unit plays for 60%.
i am probably around 350-300 on 1 unit plays for 54%.
how is this not profitable?
That is profitable Sims....but his question was why not play your 3 best gms and hope to go 2-1...not play 15 and go and 10-5...that's a 66.7% clip....it's alot easier to hit 67% playing 3 instead of 15 I would think. You have a nice record and you're + units...but I would definatly think you're in the minority when it comes to being on the positive side with so many games played. Unless your units are small, then all the action is fine imo. I see where he's coming from, but it's hard to argue with 55% and +84 units....GL tonight
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Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:
i have made about 100 plays this year at 2 units.
i have made about 650 plays this year at 1 unit.
i am probably around 60-40 on 2 unit plays for 60%.
i am probably around 350-300 on 1 unit plays for 54%.
how is this not profitable?
That is profitable Sims....but his question was why not play your 3 best gms and hope to go 2-1...not play 15 and go and 10-5...that's a 66.7% clip....it's alot easier to hit 67% playing 3 instead of 15 I would think. You have a nice record and you're + units...but I would definatly think you're in the minority when it comes to being on the positive side with so many games played. Unless your units are small, then all the action is fine imo. I see where he's coming from, but it's hard to argue with 55% and +84 units....GL tonight
That is profitable Sims....but his question was why not play your 3 best gms and hope to go 2-1...not play 15 and go and 10-5...that's a 66.7% clip....it's alot easier to hit 67% playing 3 instead of 15 I would think. You have a nice record and you're + units...but I would definatly think you're in the minority when it comes to being on the positive side with so many games played. Unless your units are small, then all the action is fine imo. I see where he's coming from, but it's hard to argue with 55% and +84 units....GL tonight
I agree with this, however... playing 1, 2, 3 unit games @ 8-12 games a day -vs- playing 3-4 games a day at 10,11,12 games a day....
You see. Different cappers have different styles. The more money wagered per game, the less games wagered on.
I agree with what you're saying Doliver. I really do.
But I'm with Sims on this as well. I like playing what I like. And if I like 10 games, well, I'm playing 10 games.
Sims - Me - Weeble - WhiteMice - a couple others... we play alot of games. Because we like a lot of games.
** Much respect, Doliver.
** Much respect, Sims.
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Quote Originally Posted by doliver517:
That is profitable Sims....but his question was why not play your 3 best gms and hope to go 2-1...not play 15 and go and 10-5...that's a 66.7% clip....it's alot easier to hit 67% playing 3 instead of 15 I would think. You have a nice record and you're + units...but I would definatly think you're in the minority when it comes to being on the positive side with so many games played. Unless your units are small, then all the action is fine imo. I see where he's coming from, but it's hard to argue with 55% and +84 units....GL tonight
I agree with this, however... playing 1, 2, 3 unit games @ 8-12 games a day -vs- playing 3-4 games a day at 10,11,12 games a day....
You see. Different cappers have different styles. The more money wagered per game, the less games wagered on.
I agree with what you're saying Doliver. I really do.
But I'm with Sims on this as well. I like playing what I like. And if I like 10 games, well, I'm playing 10 games.
Sims - Me - Weeble - WhiteMice - a couple others... we play alot of games. Because we like a lot of games.
it's definitely a more conservative way to play. b/c there is a lot better chance of going 0-3 than 0-15, but the same goes for 3-0 and 15-0. as long as you are putting in the same number of units in play...it doesn't matter how many you play.
btw - my unit is small
i'm up around 4k this year.
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it's definitely a more conservative way to play. b/c there is a lot better chance of going 0-3 than 0-15, but the same goes for 3-0 and 15-0. as long as you are putting in the same number of units in play...it doesn't matter how many you play.
Thanks for the replys guys. I'm having a hard time not being an action junkie in MLB simply because of the amount of games everyday. During fball season (college and NFL), I usaually play about 15 gms a week. Well there's 15 gms a day in MLB...finding the best 3 is definatly tough with limited time. Maybe I need to lower my normal play ($100) and just have fun over the summer. I'm NOT + $ in MLB ytd but like I said I just started capping MLB. I will say I'm good in fball and bball without wavering. I make $ ($14k in fball last yr no lie and I'm proud of it. Best yr yet). After 12 yrs you better be good or get a new hobby. MLB is interesting and I thank you guys for your input. I will definatly take it into consideration, seeing as I doubt I will be profitable in MLB for atleast a couple yrs. There's definatly a learning curve in capping this sports. Thanks again
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Thanks for the replys guys. I'm having a hard time not being an action junkie in MLB simply because of the amount of games everyday. During fball season (college and NFL), I usaually play about 15 gms a week. Well there's 15 gms a day in MLB...finding the best 3 is definatly tough with limited time. Maybe I need to lower my normal play ($100) and just have fun over the summer. I'm NOT + $ in MLB ytd but like I said I just started capping MLB. I will say I'm good in fball and bball without wavering. I make $ ($14k in fball last yr no lie and I'm proud of it. Best yr yet). After 12 yrs you better be good or get a new hobby. MLB is interesting and I thank you guys for your input. I will definatly take it into consideration, seeing as I doubt I will be profitable in MLB for atleast a couple yrs. There's definatly a learning curve in capping this sports. Thanks again
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