Orioles: We start
with the pitching and if you are going to lay juice with a favorite you have
absolutely GOT to have it. No matter
how well a team is playing or hitting that guy that takes the ball to the hill
is still 67% of your probability. No team sport in the world is as dependent on
one player as the starting pitcher in baseball. According to my numbers Tillman
is worth at 41 cents in line value over Morton, by himself. That is the
beginning of the Pirates woes. Last 15 versus righty they are 5-7-3 with an
oera of 2.5. The Orioles are 8-4-3 with an oera of 5.55. Lay it.
Marlins: Wood is
a fine young pitcher. Fernandez is a GREAT young pitcher. I use a last 7
comparison here because the Marlins have faced on 7 lefties. Braves are 4-1-2,
but they are doing it with pitching because their oera is only 2.66. They have
let opposing righties go an average of 6.2 innings per game those 7 games and
have knocked none of them out in less than 6 full innings. The Marlins versus
lefties have gone 5-1-1 with a 4.6 oera and are sending those boys to the
showers in 5.2 innings.
Athletics: Thanx
to an outstanding performance by Sonny Gray last night (ouch), the A’s are in a
good position to avenge the sweep they suffered last week. Kazmir is the
perfect follow up guy for the assignment. Mature, reliable, and at the peak of
his career. This is no fluke, the butterfly has emerged from the cocoon. Pure
offensive advantage is tough to find in a match up sense for this game, but I
have to think the combination of momentum, revenge and Kazmir is enough.
Astros: This isn’t
some old axiom play like “take all the +200 dogs at the start of the season”. For
one thing the Astros are not +200. For another thing there are darn good
reasons why they are not. Gonzalez is not the Cy Young winner of a couple years
ago. He is still a fine pitcher and comparatively the better one in this game,
but Cosart and the young staff at Houston
are making progress and much of the Gonzalez-Nationals/Cosart-Astros matchup is
more hype versus no hype than anything else. Hype doesn’t win ball games,
players do, and the Astros have just had a day off, at home, after taking the
last two from the A’s for a series split. They lost to Kazmir, who we are
backing today, but easily defeated Tommy Milone and are constantly improving
their offensive numbers. Cosart versus the over hyped Nationals offense may not
be as bad as some folks think either. The Nationals are 5-9-1 with a 1.58 oera
last 15 versus righty, so what is to be scared of?
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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Orioles: We start
with the pitching and if you are going to lay juice with a favorite you have
absolutely GOT to have it. No matter
how well a team is playing or hitting that guy that takes the ball to the hill
is still 67% of your probability. No team sport in the world is as dependent on
one player as the starting pitcher in baseball. According to my numbers Tillman
is worth at 41 cents in line value over Morton, by himself. That is the
beginning of the Pirates woes. Last 15 versus righty they are 5-7-3 with an
oera of 2.5. The Orioles are 8-4-3 with an oera of 5.55. Lay it.
Marlins: Wood is
a fine young pitcher. Fernandez is a GREAT young pitcher. I use a last 7
comparison here because the Marlins have faced on 7 lefties. Braves are 4-1-2,
but they are doing it with pitching because their oera is only 2.66. They have
let opposing righties go an average of 6.2 innings per game those 7 games and
have knocked none of them out in less than 6 full innings. The Marlins versus
lefties have gone 5-1-1 with a 4.6 oera and are sending those boys to the
showers in 5.2 innings.
Athletics: Thanx
to an outstanding performance by Sonny Gray last night (ouch), the A’s are in a
good position to avenge the sweep they suffered last week. Kazmir is the
perfect follow up guy for the assignment. Mature, reliable, and at the peak of
his career. This is no fluke, the butterfly has emerged from the cocoon. Pure
offensive advantage is tough to find in a match up sense for this game, but I
have to think the combination of momentum, revenge and Kazmir is enough.
Astros: This isn’t
some old axiom play like “take all the +200 dogs at the start of the season”. For
one thing the Astros are not +200. For another thing there are darn good
reasons why they are not. Gonzalez is not the Cy Young winner of a couple years
ago. He is still a fine pitcher and comparatively the better one in this game,
but Cosart and the young staff at Houston
are making progress and much of the Gonzalez-Nationals/Cosart-Astros matchup is
more hype versus no hype than anything else. Hype doesn’t win ball games,
players do, and the Astros have just had a day off, at home, after taking the
last two from the A’s for a series split. They lost to Kazmir, who we are
backing today, but easily defeated Tommy Milone and are constantly improving
their offensive numbers. Cosart versus the over hyped Nationals offense may not
be as bad as some folks think either. The Nationals are 5-9-1 with a 1.58 oera
last 15 versus righty, so what is to be scared of?
Cool thanks Key. That is quite a run you are going against in taking Kazmir over Perez, he is on quite streak and looking quite dominant though Kazmir is nothing to sneeze at either... Best of luck today.
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Cool thanks Key. That is quite a run you are going against in taking Kazmir over Perez, he is on quite streak and looking quite dominant though Kazmir is nothing to sneeze at either... Best of luck today.
that is some great analysis. i too like Tillman quite a bit but those numbers you throw out regarding the Marlins vs. LHP is a pure sell in a first 5 wager with Fernandez on the hill.
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that is some great analysis. i too like Tillman quite a bit but those numbers you throw out regarding the Marlins vs. LHP is a pure sell in a first 5 wager with Fernandez on the hill.
I notice you always do straight bets, have you ever gone into the parlay/robin areas or is that something you'd suggest against and stick to the straight bets?
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hey key, first off greaaat threads
I notice you always do straight bets, have you ever gone into the parlay/robin areas or is that something you'd suggest against and stick to the straight bets?
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