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Money Ball 6-19-2014

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Posted: #26
Lets go Key!!!!!
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by rmb5w:


I was just thinking about who would be in my top 10 MLB pitchers last night when SEA blew the lead for King Felix and Kershaw threw a no-hitter.  So I ranked them just for fun:

1.)  Clayton Kershaw
2.)  Felix Hernandez
3.)  Masahiro Tanaka
4.)  Adam Wainwright
5.)  Johnny Cueto 
6.)  Jose Fernandez 
7.)  Yu Darvish
8.)  Stephen Strasburg
9.)  Cliff Lee
10.)  Julio Teheran

Which of my top 5 pitchers would you kick out in favor of Anibal?
Tell you what buddy, I have to have all MLB starters updated tomorrow morning for the weekend action anyway. I will do you a top ten list after all entries from today are entered and graded, then you and a lot of other guys can tell me I'm nuts. At least that is the way it usually goes.
 
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Posted: #28
Curious what your sheet says about STL/Philly?


KE
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Curious what your sheet says about STL/Philly?


KE
Cardinals, but they should be -140, no value. The total looks accurate at 8.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #30
Appreciate the time.
 
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Posted: #31
Key- You're Nuts! Just kiddin! I'm really looking forward to seeing your list of top 10 pitchers. rmb5w's list looks pretty good. Cliff Lee?? How about Bumgarner (SF) or Hudson (SF)? If you really look deep into David Prices's stats you will see that he has pitched really well for a real bad team. In the entire MLB this year, Price is 3rd in innings pitched; 2nd in K's; 17th in WHIP; 64th in ERA; 3rd in CG's; leads majors in K/BB with 12.10, keep in mind TBay is 28-45. TBay is 8-7 in 15 Price starts. In those 7 losses TBay has scored a total of 13 runs. Something to ponder!
 
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Posted: #32
Cliff Lee over Bumgarner/Hudson because of his 80% quality start percentage and his K/BB ratio.
 
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Posted: #33
I have a feeling less than half of the list posted previously will appear on Key's list. Different mindset than the average bettor.

 
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Posted: #34
rmb5w, I totally respect your opinion. I guess I'm gonna be a liitle harder on Lee because he has been around a few years and he is on and off the DL, so it seems. Honestly, I don't think he would have made my top 50 starters this year. Oh well! Right?
 
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Posted: #35
Bol
 
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Posted: #36
Good luck Key
 
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Posted: #37
BOL today Key, not a huge fan of the plays but BOL all the same
 
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Posted: #38
GOOD LUCK KEY
 
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Posted: #39
ughh...F that villar guy.  
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by rmb5w:


I was just thinking about who would be in my top 10 MLB pitchers last night when SEA blew the lead for King Felix and Kershaw threw a no-hitter.  So I ranked them just for fun:

1.)  Clayton Kershaw
2.)  Felix Hernandez
3.)  Masahiro Tanaka
4.)  Adam Wainwright
5.)  Johnny Cueto 
6.)  Jose Fernandez 
7.)  Yu Darvish
8.)  Stephen Strasburg
9.)  Cliff Lee
10.)  Julio Teheran

Which of my top 5 pitchers would you kick out in favor of Anibal?

How is Sale not in here

GL key
 
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Posted: #41
I liked hou f5 too. Under was the better play but oh well next time
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by LexingtonTim:

Key- You're Nuts! Just kiddin! I'm really looking forward to seeing your list of top 10 pitchers. rmb5w's list looks pretty good. Cliff Lee?? How about Bumgarner (SF) or Hudson (SF)? If you really look deep into David Prices's stats you will see
Tim, the computations will be from my data base, which has a game score compiled form every pitch thrown by every starter this year. There is no guesswork and nothing judgmental, every point was earned by the starter in question. A couple things will set people off that pay a lot of attention to raw data, or sabrmetrics, or the crap published on the web by people that are out to promote the large market players and clubs. One thing I can absolutely guarantee you is that Clayton Kershaw is NOT the best or most bettable pitcher in MLB this year, if ever. My ratings include adjustments for league, division and home park and all of those effect Kershaw. I admire him and wish him well, but he is aided greatly by the National League (no DH), The N.L. West (lefty pitchers paradise at LA, SF, and SD) and Dodger Stadium (lefty dream park with the additional benefit of the Marine Layer). A lot of things make small differences and a lot of small differences make small differences in ratings, but the target of my ratings, as opposed to MLB or fantasy, is an objective figure that represents true value on a betting line. Now, you may wish to reconsider whether or not I am nuts.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #43
9 inning 3 hit shutout from Wheeler and the next time I back him someone will tell me he isn't any good. Oh, well.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #44
Looking forward to your list....
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by CalBear:


How is Sale not in here

GL key
Quiet down, don't mention him, the impact will be hilarious.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by CalBear:


How is Sale not in here

GL key

Sale had been on the DL, so I just forgot.  I'd put him ahead of Lee, Teheran. 
 
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Posted: #47

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Tim, the computations will be from my data base, which has a game score compiled form every pitch thrown by every starter this year. There is no guesswork and nothing judgmental, every point was earned by the starter in question. A couple things will set people off that pay a lot of attention to raw data, or sabrmetrics, or the crap published on the web by people that are out to promote the large market players and clubs. One thing I can absolutely guarantee you is that Clayton Kershaw is NOT the best or most bettable pitcher in MLB this year, if ever. My ratings include adjustments for league, division and home park and all of those effect Kershaw. I admire him and wish him well, but he is aided greatly by the National League (no DH), The N.L. West (lefty pitchers paradise at LA, SF, and SD) and Dodger Stadium (lefty dream park with the additional benefit of the Marine Layer). "A lot of things make small differences and a lot of small differences make small differences in ratings, but the target of my ratings, as opposed to MLB or fantasy, is an objective figure that represents true value on a betting line". Now, you may wish to reconsider whether or not I am nuts.

Alfredo Simon/Cincinnati Reds; a reliever turned starter bringing 'true value' to the betting line; my data system has him rated as +9.2

Jake Peavy/Boston RedSox; in comparison to over value, or, untrue (disguised) value, I have a rating of -7.4 a 16.6 pt marginal advantage when capping "1st 5 Innings" wagers of true value where SP plays aprx 40% of the handicap

based on 142 active SP

 
 
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Posted: #48

KeyElement

do you ever utilize the sportbooks in Laughlin NV? or; are your wagers placed online the majority of time?

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