Money Ball 6-5-2015

5-04

$306 Athletics +104, (Hahn/Greene) W

$306 Cubs +107, (Arrieta/Gonzalez) W

YTD 66-42, +$7,304.83 (+31.56% RoR)

5-05

$365 Giants -122, (Lincecum/Williams)

$365 Athletics +105, (Kazmir/Miley)

$365 Rays +100, (Odorizzi/Happ)

Giants: The only thing surprising here is the line, but that is a simple matter of bettors supporting the old Home Field Advantage for far more than it is worth. I have to point out that I LOVE Jerome Williams. He is a real Clydesdale at a career 6.84 innings per start for minimum wage and almost no success. There will always be job for a guy that eats innings for minimum wage, so someone always wants him. According to my numbers the Lincecum-Williams matchup is worth 48.5 cents of line value even before you grant the Giants a better offense.

Athletics: A little slimmer probability here but Kazmir definitely gives us an edge over Miley and the A’s are actually hitting lefties better than the BoSux right now.  As I pointed out to someone yesterday, MLB is an ever changing landscape and no team is exactly the same team they were April 1^st, May 1^st, or even June 1^st. We have to catch performance and momentum changes and capitalize on them. Most of the public will use YTD stats to compute probability and that is one thing that gets them in trouble with Guido (the bookies enforcer).

Rays: I could be wrong of course but in my opinion Jake Odorizzi is still one of MLB’s most undervalued commodities. Part of that is the overall disrespect the Rays get and part of it is due to the (well deserved) respect Archer and the rest of the starting staff do get. Whatever the reason, Jake is a clearly superior chucker to J.A. Happ and has an offense behind him that is more productive versus lefty than Happ’s is versus righty.

BOL

        I GOT 8 STRAIGHT AT FANTASTIC ODDS THANKS TO KEY