Money Ball 6.17

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If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI 

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

6.16.2013, 1-0, +5.75 Units, +115 ROI

YTD – 136-141-26, +56.69 Units, +4.34% ROI

5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted

Today’s comment: I have cashed three straight days on the Astros but now the betting world thinks it is brilliant and finally jumped on board. Apparently the line makers thought the public would stick with the Sox, especially with the “won’t get swept” theory in play today. I agree with most bettors so far, that they probably will get swept, but the folks that have caught on late but bet this game early have destroyed the line and there is very little value left. If some fool with too much disposable income comes forward and boosts the Sox back up there I may play, but I don’t think that is going to happen. Thanks for the money, Astros. Time to move on.

Astros No Play, but why they should sweep.

The Astros are the perfect example of why I won’t handicap based on season-to-date numbers or old trends that may go back even beyond this season two, three, four years. Some season-to-date numbers are still in the system but are graded for impact on today’s probability, having far less influence than more recent numbers. MLB is an ever changing landscape and many seasons are played within one. Numbers of impact today and why the Astros should be favored, and win. They are 9-5-1 their last 15 versus lefty in the 5 inning game, 5-0-1 last 6 and have established a 31.2 rating with an oera of 4.9. Those numbers are not far from the top of the heap and the ChiSox counter with 7-5-3 versus righty but a 29.9 rating and 3.2 oera. Given that Norris is the slightly higher rated starter, at home, with a better matchup offense behind him, and that should be enough to carry the day. According to my numbers Norris should be -125, and maybe I should play for the sweep, but at the current +100 the value is far less than I have been playing for the last three days. BOL Astros, you deserve it.

I would also like to take a minute to thank a guy that stops in daily, but never seems to have a question or comment, so never seems to need a reply. That means he is a loyal friend, good times and bad, that he is in this for the long haul, not “what have you done for me lately?”

avenue, you are the viewer I have in mind and I just want to acknowledge your loyalty and support. Such people do not come along every day. It makes posting worthwhile.

Rockies F5, +132 (De La Rosa / Johnson)

I don’t often play the Rockies on the road but today I will make a concession and bow to my computed true probability. Why not? They have gone 14-16 on the season and 6-6 their last twelve on the road, they have their #2 starter and top lefty facing a team coming off a very impressive sweep at Texas (letdown?) and an offense adjusted for the “Coors Field Effect” that still comes out superior to the Blue Jays, although I will grant that the Jays have made great strides lately. Johnson is the problem with establishing the Jays as the favorites. He is simply not showing the form or ability the Jays thought they were buying and is a large part of their disappointment to date. I’m not saying he can not turn it around as some of the other guys have done but his projected numbers in my system do not indicate it will be immediate and backing him is still very risky. We also have to take the sweep of the Rangers with a small grain of salt, as they were only 4-6 heading into that series and the slump was already under way.

Padres F5, +110 (Volquez / Zito)

I would guess the line drop from the opener of +115 is partly anti-Zito money coming out to play, but I also think this goes much deeper. No one likes to back Volquez, and much more so on the road than at home, but his only true road disaster was at Colorado, in a hitters park, and other than that the Padres are 2-1 in his road starts and he is one of the marginal guys I was looking for progress from this year. Plenty of talent, everyone he has played for or against concedes that, he just had to get it together (think Scherzer). Zito has been good at home, but just the fact that he needs a pitchers park to perform well is indicative of his decline. One team is surging at 8-2 last 10 and the other is slumping at 4-6. There is no reason why surge or slump can not follow a team on the road (think Royals) or come home with them from a disappointing 4-5 road trip. With the Padres whacking lefties at 36.6 and 4.7 versus the Giants 30.4 and 2.87 versus righty I think I see a false favorite here.

BOL

Key-like S/D as well--add to your review--S/F off long rd trip--9 games 3 cities and late night flight home.with 0 runs on the board.

You are spot on about Houston--They offer many nice spots to play on as well with Mia.

Thanks for all your insight

Key-One other comment from your review. You are correct, there are many seasons within the season. Most bettors form an opinion of a team and carry that opinion thru the entire season. Never adusting along the way. I have been a bettor of basebsll for 25 years and I have always belived it is (what happened yesterday) not what happened two weeks ago or what happened last year.

again thanks for all your hard work and insight and also your humor.