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Money Ball 7-17-2015

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Posted: #26
GL
 
Captain
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Posted: #27
Like it! 
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by vinnyherbert:

The Rays should be favorites ? !  Wow. c'mon Betty.  Toronto averages nearly 2 runs a game more than Tampa and Hutchinson has been outstanding at home with a 2.12 ERA and great numbers. 

Means nothing without context -- against who? How far back are you going in games to generate these numbers? Who did they average these extra runs more against? How did that competition fare against teams with better or worse offenses than Toronto's? How many of the games you've included should actually be removed or normalized in your calculation?

I don't use generic ERAs that measure intangible and unreliable trends such as 'at home', which also don't put those numbers in a meaningful context or correct for currently relevant projections.
I generate lines and projections from advanced sabrmetrics, the most useful in calculating current form of each side and how they can be expected to perform in this current matchup today. 

If this game could be played over and over (like Running it Twice in Texas Hold Em), who would win more times? 

When you are genuinely handicapping at an advanced level, rather than just reciting generic averages and isolated trends then yes, Tampa Bay should, in this specific matchup today, should be the team laying juice.
 
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Posted: #29
 Thanks
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by vinnyherbert:

The Rays should be favorites ? !  Wow. c'mon Betty.  Toronto averages nearly 2 runs a game more than Tampa and Hutchinson has been outstanding at home with a 2.12 ERA and great numbers. 

Responses like these are why I've recently stopped posting advanced write-ups in my own threads. Always some pseudo-sharp who worships at the Altar of Non-Predictive Stats waiting to jump on a guy who spends hours breaking down game video and generating sabrmetric power rankings to identify spots where the linesmakers have it wrong, and sharing the information for free... so that said pseudo-sharp can act like they know more, because they've got the stats that sites like Bookmaker give out for free,because they are utterly useless in predicting upcoming games.
 
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Posted: #31
Thank Key
 
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Posted: #32
GL today Key 
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by BettyMcWager:


Means nothing without context -- against who? How far back are you going in games to generate these numbers? Who did they average these extra runs more against? How did that competition fare against teams with better or worse offenses than Toronto's? How many of the games you've included should actually be removed or normalized in your calculation?

I don't use generic ERAs that measure intangible and unreliable trends such as 'at home', which also don't put those numbers in a meaningful context or correct for currently relevant projections.
I generate lines and projections from advanced sabrmetrics, the most useful in calculating current form of each side and how they can be expected to perform in this current matchup today. 

If this game could be played over and over (like Running it Twice in Texas Hold Em), who would win more times? 

When you are genuinely handicapping at an advanced level, rather than just reciting generic averages and isolated trends then yes, Tampa Bay should, in this specific matchup today, should be the team laying juice.

The books are so scared of advance sabermetrics that they are still open and taking your action.  Did your advance sabermetrics take into account the big hangover that some players might have?  Your advance sabermetrics mean nothing when the players take the field for that day.  Keep believing a bunch of useless crap.  If advanced sabermetrics was so powerful why have you not taken down the books.  lol    

 
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Posted: #34
Good luck tonight in the 2nd half Key..great first half and looking forward to your work going forward...
 
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Posted: #35
Thanks Key    
 
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Posted: #36
No other play today, sorry.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #37
I hoped a second play! 

Lets wait for Rays then 
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by desm0nd:

Quote Originally Posted by sirdabsalot:

and you think everyone wants to see a million posts saying good luck key? i go to this page for info. not D sucking
+1

Lady's Lady's Lady's
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by desm0nd:

Quote Originally Posted by sirdabsalot:

and you think everyone wants to see a million posts saying good luck key? i go to this page for info. not D sucking
+1

Lady's Lady's Lady's
 
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Posted: #40







bol pal
 
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Posted: #41
guess I should have waited for a better line!

This game really stood out to me last night, so I locked it in at +120.

Good luck, Key.
 
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Posted: #42
Thank you Keys
 
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Posted: #43
Just to pick your brain a bit, if I may Key, were the Mariners a potential play at +160 against Tanaka, who hasn't been stellar since coming back , going against Montgomery who you've backed in the past? 
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by Charlie_X:

I'm locked and loaded on Tampa Bay Rays ML at +125! 

Best of luck Key, and to all of us tailing you on this play. Have a GREAT 2nd 1/2 of the 2015 MLB season! 



You do kind of sound like a troll. Maybe lose the lock and loaded and quite slobbering all over Key. Just my 2 cents.
 
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Posted: #45
Oh well.  Maybe tomorrow we will start a winning streak.  Rays are just downright pathetic!
 
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Posted: #46
Every time key element talks about how great odorizzi is, he plays like garbage. Jinx of a good capper. Odorizzi has never been good except for 3-4 games in his whole career. The guy is inconsistent and just downright pathetic
 
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Posted: #47
its not the rays, its bluejays, too much power, every dude in the lineup has millions of HR's... bah
 
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Posted: #48
but yeah ODO can't K... i think i've seen at least 10 0-2 counts and no strikouts
 
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Posted: #49
Let's bet against the highest scoring team in baseball.   Lolol
 
 
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Posted: #50
Ohwell
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