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Money Ball 8/12

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Posted: #26
GL   
 
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Posted: #27
BOL
 
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Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by gamblingallday:



No doubt kershaw was the better pitcher on the hotter team playing at home. And the odds reflected that. But how do you accurately compute a win percentage of 74%?
Totally unique data base and formulas. Why do what everyone else does? All you get is what everyone else gets and 80% of the public loses every year and 95% over the course of 5 to 10 years. All I will tell you is that 74% is extremely rare. Most games do not exceed 60-65% and even that is a little rare, but that is the way it should be, because teams rarely win a higher percentage than that, even in best versus worst matchups. Today there is not one computation that even reaches 60%, but every favorite will have money thrown at them because many people will think that each "can't lose." Especially home favorites, almost all are overpriced except the "bad" one, Diamondbacks, playing the great public favorite, the "unreal" Orioles.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #29
thanks for the insight Key, Best of Luck Today !
 
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Posted: #30
My first 3 bets today Oakland, NY parlayed to Houston under with the total under 8 and Miley first 5. 
 
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Posted: #31
Nice statement of value Key!

yes, the odds on Kershaw yesterday reflected he was the better pitcher on a hotter team.  But those are the public odds.

You make your own private line to reflect the true odds.  That is what handicapping is. 

If there is a nice overlay between the numbers, you have a bet.  Sometimes (rarely) a -190 fave is a better value than a +200 dog!

 
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Posted: #32
Kuroda is not a coin flip
 
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Posted: #33

Quote Originally Posted by figgity07:

Kuroda is not a coin flip

Once you factor in the Yankee bats he is.

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Your money, your choice.
 GL TODAY
 
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Posted: #35
 
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Posted: #36
Gotta risk it to get the biscuit... it takes cajones sometimes.
Man up and bet, or stay on the sidelines and STFU.
No tears please!
Kick some butt Key Element!
 
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Posted: #37
Going with BALT tonight, but GL on your Arizona play!
 
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Posted: #38
Arizona ties it up!
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Your money, your choice.


His money, his choice.....HE wins.
 
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Posted: #40
Capuchaboy showing what an amateur he is with that statement . . . .
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by CalifDreamin:

Capuchaboy showing what an amateur he is with that statement . . . .

Shocker....I've been exposed by CalifDreamin for the amateur that I am.

It should be noted, however, I am an accurate amateur.

When the evening is over, at best, KeyElement's day will include:

One win and three losses.  But, he could be 0-4.

Devildare will end the evening at 3 wins and 1 loss at worst, possibly finishing 4 wins and 0 losses.

Even this amateur knows that 3-1 is better than 1-3.

 
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Posted: #42
Yes, but amateurs feel that one day's result means absolutely anything in the big picture . . .
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by CalifDreamin:

Yes, but amateurs feel that one day's result means absolutely anything in the big picture . . .


Now you are projecting CalifDreamin.  No one is saying anything about "big pictures" or single-day results....

KeyElement was dismissive of devildare and it did not become him.

Now you are able to enter my mind....it does not become you.

Quit while you still have some dignity CalifDreamin.....you are in way over your head young man.  

Persist if you will, I enjoy carving up weak minds such as yours.

 
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Posted: #44
Lol, thanks for the laugh. Im at work right now and i honestly needed it. . . .
 
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Posted: #45
I parlayed Balt +1.5-225 on the RL with Col, insted of playing Balt SU or the RL SU because the juice was so high on Balt RL.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by RLeith35:

I parlayed Balt +1.5-225 on the RL with Col, insted of playing Balt SU or the RL SU because the juice was so high on Balt RL.

Smart man
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by capuchaboy:

 
KeyElement was dismissive of devildare and it did not become him.

Discretion is the better part of valor. It is best to know when an argument is pointless and will serve no purpose. Your money, your choice, may sound dismissive to you but it is a clear statement of wagering fact and options. If there were not customers for both Fords and Chevrolets they would not make both.

 

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #48
How are you not on the TWINS F5 ? ;) 
 
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Posted: #49

I'll take you at your word.

 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by apeterson8809:

How are you not on the TWINS F5 ? ;) 
Who told you I'm not? this is yesterday's thread. I will be along shortly.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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