Nothing But Overs.. Season 2

Results for July 27th: 1-5, -3.96 units.

Last night's results: 4-1, +2.716 units.

YTD: 238-206-19, +11.197 units.

Today's plays, July 29th.

SF/Cin over 9: 1 to win .943

ChC/StL over 7.5: 1 to win 1

Col/Sd over 6.5: 1 to win .885

KC/Clev over 8: 1 to win .926

Bal/NYY over 9.5: 1 to win .885

Min/Oak over 7: 1 to win .926

BOL

Last night's results: 3-3, -0.148 units.

YTD: 241-209-19, +11.049 units.

Today's play, July 30th.

ChC/StL over 8.5: 1 to win 1

NYM/Wash over 8.5: 1 win .885

Col/SD over 6: 1 to win .909

Ariz/LAD over 7: 1 to win .935

Tex/Tor over 9.5: 1 to win .935

Bos/ChS over 8.5: 1 to win .943

Min/Oak over 7.5: 1 to win .885

BOL

Last night's results: 5-2, +2.67 units.

YTD: 246-211-19, +13.721 units.

Today's plays, July 31st.

SF/Cin over 8.5: 1 to win .952

ChC/StL over 8.5: 1 to win .980

LAA/Det over 6.5: 1 to win 1.11

Bal/NYY over 9.5: 1 to win .862

Bos/ChS over 9.5: 1 to win .990

BOL

Last night's results: 2-3, -1.068 units.

YTD: 248-214-19, +12.653 units.

Today's plays Aug 1st.

Atl/Wash over 7.5: 1 to win .813

ChC/Pit over 7.5: 1 to win .870

Fla/NYM over 8: 1 to win .952

Cin/Hou over 7.5: 1 to win .840

StL/Mil over 7.5: 1 to win .990

After 4 scoreless innings during last night's StL/ChC game, over 8 was paying +760, played that for half a unit, gotta love those when they hit.

BOL

Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:

Nice 4-1!

Miracle overs in ninth and tenth innings in 3 of them. 

Livin' right! 

So how do you determine which overs to take?

Based on stats, pitchers and umpires?

Or just gut feel?

GL

I wouldn't necessarily call them miracle overs, 2 of those just needed 1 run to push it over.  The one that was improbable was the Fla/NYM game, that would be a bad beat for the under.  However, the game that I lost last night was a bad beat for the over, Cin/Hou scored 6 runs in first half of game then only 1 more rest of the way, and it was also a tied game.

I've posted this many times already on how I chose my plays.  I guess I post it one more time.

The main criteria of my plays is combined pitching ERA vs opp.  I like to see both pitchers have bad ERAs over a large number IPs to feel comfortable play.  I will then have a look at the pitcher's season ERA and last 3 starts ERA to get a feel of how well they are pitching.  If I have time, I will also have a quick look at the pitcher vs the opp lineup to see how many guys on that line up tend to own him.  And there is also some intuition of my own, such as not playing certain teams that can't score for shit, and playing some hot offensive teams.  But it all goes back to starting pitching vs opp.  This is not a system, I don't like robotically take picks if they just meet a few criteria.  It works for some, but it usually does not work for me.  BOL

Last night's results: 4-1, +2.625 units.

YTD: 252-215-19, +15.287 units.

Today's plays, Aug 2nd.

ChC/Pit over 8: 1 to win .877

Phil/Col over 10.5: 1 to win .917

Tex/Det over 8.5: 1 to win .885

NYY/ChS over 9: 1 to win .952

BOL