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Prospect
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Posted: #51
"met 17/20 of my conditions"

would you mind discussing this further?

If not no worries.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #52
Hey sorry guys, I have been busy preparing lectures and marking. 

Oakland magic I tell you. 3 runs off Detroit from Valv. Clearly the guy has some OCD issues. I really believe this affects him on the mound. Oh well. 

As for the 17/20 conditions I was talking about, it just is a bunch of conditions like ERA, OBP, how a pitcher does vs. lineup, how opposing pitcher fairs, etc... 

I basically take the each posted lineup. I run all the stats of the pitchers vs. that lineup. I also factor in how long the pitchers can go and how much play the bullpen gets. 

These 2 unit plays are rare but out of 20 or so bets a week there is prob 1 or 2. If some games are borderline i don't bet. I only play games I have a lot of confidence in as well the value. If I get a bad line i will simply ignore the play no matter how much I like it.

Det ml - Loss of 2 units

Record:
OVERALL: +21.97 UNITS, +$2197, 
16/23 Singles - 70%
2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%
 
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Posted: #53
I got home late and did not have time for any plays today. I have lost the last 3 plays (- 4 units) but as I have been saying you cannot deviate or go crazy. Variance will hit. I went on a nice run, but I am coming back down to earth. 55-58% is my usual long term success rate. Some months are better then others. 

Remember it's a marathon not a sprint. Exercise proper bankroll management and bet 2-3% per play. Parlays are ok if the payout odds are greater then the true odds. Stick to 2-4 games max, and bet much smaller amounts to absorb the high variance of multi teamers. 

To be a profitable sports capper you just have to pick your spots, bet for value, control your emotions, and don't tilt bet. Last night I honestly laughed when Oakland won. I actually smiled and was cheering for them. I love a good ending. Money is nice but you can find joy in other things in life. 
 
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Posted: #54
Thanks for sharing your picks Professor
 
Prospect
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Posted: #55
Np Peter!

I like the Yankees today and the Cards. However, the Yanks at that price 1.50 (-200) is terrible for value. The Cards thou @ 2.22 (+122) are excellent value.

Washington does have home field advantage, and a slightly better pitcher, but the Cards have experience and better bats, and in games like these, they don't squeeze the bats the way Wash kids will. 

The game is almost pretty much a coin flip, but I am going with STL at +122 for excellent value. I believe the true line to be STL +104.

Standard 1 Unit on STL @ 2.22:1 (+122) 

Goodluck guys.
 
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Posted: #56
The Magic 8 ball says STL most likely.
 
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Posted: #57
Great work Prof, feels good to get one back after that tigers loss
 
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Posted: #58
Peter you nailed it. I could not believe how many threads popped up about "how unlucky is my life" "i hate gambling" "washington sucks" etc.. people forget the times they got lucky.

That Detroit game 4 was a beat, but variance swung back in our favour.

Thanks for your positive comments. 



 
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Posted: #59
STL - win +1.22 units (2.22:1, +122)

Record:
OVERALL: +23.19 UNITS, +$2319, 
17/24 Singles - 70.8%
2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%
 
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Posted: #60
You are truly good in this prof.. Let's beat the books @NBA too
 
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Posted: #61
Keep it up and you might get tenured here...
Ex-WTA tennis coach, over 20 years. PATREON I AM ON! Now I bet. PATREON! PATREON! PATREON
 
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Posted: #62
Thanks guys again for the positive comments.

Tonights game: Saturday Oct 13th: DET vs NYY

The current price at 5:05 EST is NYY ml @ 1.73 and DET ml @ 2.28

My thoughts on the game:

After my capping, i believe the true line to be NYY @1.85 and DET @ 2.16. A lot of public money on NYY as per usual. Now looking at the pitching, Andy Pettitte has given up 20 RBIs with only 92 AB vs this lineup and subs while Fister has given up only 12RBIs over 99 AB vs. the Yanks. 

The only hitter on the Yanks I am concerned about is Teixeira. He has hit 4 RBIs of Fister in 12 AB with a slugging of .667. If the Yanks can get some runners on (Tex is betting clean up today as per daily lineups) then Det could be in trouble.

The over / under is at 7.5 @ 1.93. Some books have it at 8 for 2.10 (+110). I am grabbing Pinnys line of 1.93 over 7.5 now.

This is my play. DET vs. NYY OVER 7.5 @ 1.93 

1 Unit. 

I really think this game is too close to call in terms of money line. I don't like the number on the Yanks. Det ml looks tempting but I just think the Yanks pull this one out. Detroits closer also scares me. The guy and his OCD issues really affects him. His confidence is shot now after Oak game 4 meltdown.

I may choose DET first 5, then Yanks late. Or if DET leading late, may be on NYY live in play to come back at much better odds. The play however for me right now is over 7.5.

Goodluck!
 
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Posted: #63
Ich have you started betting NBA pre season yet? I am working on a model that ranks the top bench, subs, and prospects and looking at how much game time they get. Guys like these are fighting for jobs and usually turn up the intensity. I am fading the starters and big names/public teams. 

Hard to get lineups thou pre game. Just doing $1 plays and track bets and see how it goes to use for next season. GL tonight in any bets.
 
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Posted: #64
I liked your St. Louis pick last night, and glad it worked out well for you. Some say the St. Louis win was a lucky one, but as you have said earlier, it is just about being on the right side. If those 4 runs St. Louis scored came rather in the first inning, no one would have said it was a lucky win for St. Louis. How was it lucky? Just because they scored multiple runs in the 9th? Have people not seen closer meltdown in baseball before? I would have argued it was lucky if Washington committed errors to let those 4 runs in. There was nothing unimaginable there, in my opinion.

I like the Over pick in DET@NYY. Best of luck Professor.
 
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Posted: #65
great stuff prof 

but public money looks to be coming in on DET from what I've seen. Creeping back closer to 55/45 DET now tho.  And the Yankee line is still creeping higher

BOL tonight
 
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Posted: #66
Thanks Notes and 5t4. 

Question for you 5t4. Where do you get your public data. I get mine from a few websites, but they don't seem to be too accurate. I am trying to find some more reputable sites. Any recommendations? Thanks,


 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by Professor524:

Thanks guys again for the positive comments.

Tonights game: Saturday Oct 13th: DET vs NYY

The current price at 5:05 EST is NYY ml @ 1.73 and DET ml @ 2.28

My thoughts on the game:

After my capping, i believe the true line to be NYY @1.85 and DET @ 2.16. A lot of public money on NYY as per usual. Now looking at the pitching, Andy Pettitte has given up 20 RBIs with only 92 AB vs this lineup and subs while Fister has given up only 12RBIs over 99 AB vs. the Yanks. 

The only hitter on the Yanks I am concerned about is Teixeira. He has hit 4 RBIs of Fister in 12 AB with a slugging of .667. If the Yanks can get some runners on (Tex is betting clean up today as per daily lineups) then Det could be in trouble.

The over / under is at 7.5 @ 1.93. Some books have it at 8 for 2.10 (+110). I am grabbing Pinnys line of 1.93 over 7.5 now.

This is my play. DET vs. NYY OVER 7.5 @ 1.93 

1 Unit. 

I really think this game is too close to call in terms of money line. I don't like the number on the Yanks. Det ml looks tempting but I just think the Yanks pull this one out. Detroits closer also scares me. The guy and his OCD issues really affects him. His confidence is shot now after Oak game 4 meltdown.

I may choose DET first 5, then Yanks late. Or if DET leading late, may be on NYY live in play to come back at much better odds. The play however for me right now is over 7.5.

Goodluck!


Congrats OVER backers. Remember everyone, it's never over till it's over. 

Isn't it also ironic that even thou Tigers fans are angry, stressed, over Valverde, including the entire Tigers clubhouse, if he did not blow the save, there would still be Jeter in this series. Looks like he is gone for a long time. Probably high ankle sprain. 

Will post picks tomorrow morning. I am off to bed guys. Goodnight everyone.
 
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Posted: #68
DET vs. NYY - OVER 7.5 - WIN (1.93:1) +0.93 units.


Record:
OVERALL: +24.12 UNITS, +$2412, 
18/25 Singles - 72%
2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%
 
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Posted: #69
Good work
 
Prospect
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Posted: #70
Hello everyone! Thanks WakeandRake! Goodluck today!

Sun Oct 14th:

DET vs. NYY - OVER 8 - 1.99:1 (-101, Pinnacle)

*Kuroda and Sanchez not impressive numbers vs. their opponents lineups, as well, I just LOVE the 16mph wind blowing out to the fences. 


STL vs. SF - SF money line, @ 1.85 

Bumgarner, has this Stl lineup and subs hitting .247, with a slugging of only .272. Lynn, has given Giants batters a .300 BA and .333 Slugging %. SF at home with this price is fair value. 

1 unit each.

Goodluck guys!
 
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Posted: #71
 
Captain
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by Professor524:

Thanks Notes and 5t4. 

Question for you 5t4. Where do you get your public data. I get mine from a few websites, but they don't seem to be too accurate. I am trying to find some more reputable sites. Any recommendations? Thanks,


not really.. I use several of the main ones to try and get a general idea.  When they all say roughly the same thing its a fairly good indication where the public is betting.

Pregame, vegas insider, sports insights, and I also look to see where the Covers "public" is at on the matchup pages 
 
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Posted: #73
Some of the online sportsbooks also have features where you can see this information on each game such as Sports Interaction.  But their info usually differs greatly from what I see at the "other" sites.  I haven't figured out if it is more accurate or less accurate yet.

I'm starting to believe that it is just where that particular book wants you to think the bets are coming in at
 
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Posted: #74
Let's do this
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #75
Thanks for the input and help 5t.

Sorry guys for a bad night. 0 for 2. Not fun but that's the wonderful world of sports. 

Loss of 2 units.

DET vs. NYY - Over 8 - Loss
STL vs SF - SF ml - Loss

Record:
OVERALL: +22.12 UNITS, +$2212, 
18/27 Singles - 66.7%
2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%


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