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Posts: 160

dadecounty305

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 67

Posted: Oct. 25, 2012 - 9:50 AM ET #126

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Eaglespts

Rookie

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 857

Posted: Oct. 25, 2012 - 10:44 AM ET #127

Prof524: You are forgiven, keep up the good work.

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marclais

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 43

Posted: Oct. 25, 2012 - 12:31 PM ET #128

Magnitogorsk lost in overtime. You won that bet?

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Professor524

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 268

Posted: Oct. 25, 2012 - 1:23 PM ET #129

Quote Originally Posted by marclais:

Magnitogorsk lost in overtime. You won that bet?

Oh no. I made a mistake. I looked at Mansiysk (Yugur) on the scoreboard and wrote Manitogorsk. You are right marclais, thanks. I will adjust that now.

Looks like I am getting too old. I think I will just post some picks here and there. I had to review my entire record again for wins/losses and everything checks out. I missed that run line tigers bet and now this KHL game. Maybe time for a break. Sorry for the confusion.

*adjusted for missed KHL game and Tigers run line. Thanks again Marclais and Eaglespts. Sorry everyone for those 2 mistakes.

OVERALL: +22.06 UNITS, +$2206

32/56 Singles - 58.9%

0/2 for 2 game parlays - 0%

2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%

1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%

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Professor524

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 268

Posted: Oct. 25, 2012 - 1:23 PM ET #130

*57.14%

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Professor524

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 268

Posted: Oct. 27, 2012 - 5:32 PM ET #131

DET ml Game 2 @1.83 Pinnacle - LOSE 1 unit

TB @ MIN - Going with the Over 42.5 - @ 1.94 - WIN 0.94 units profit

OVERALL: +22 UNITS, +$2200

33/57 Singles - 57.9%

0/2 for 2 game parlays - 0%

2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%

1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%

Hey everyone. Went threw my entire record again, verified results, and winnings. Took a few hours but what good is a record if it's not accurate. I missed 1 game and got the result of another game wrong (2 very similar Russian KHL names). I will be sure to do only modify my record after a good nights sleep and not 2am!

I have been running on 4 hours sleep the past few months. Lots of things to do when you teach. Never fun when you have to bring work home to do. Even teachers have lots of homework!

Tonight I don't see a clear advantage with DET. With that being said I will take the extra money on the Giants. My model was DET 1.88:1, and SFG 2.12:1 (+112). With the price being +140 for SFG, I will take the extra value. Goodluck guys.

Sat Oct 27: SFG ml - 2.40:1 (+140)

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Professor524

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 268

Posted: Oct. 28, 2012 - 12:14 AM ET #132

First, correction, 33/58, (56.9%) not 33/57 from previous post.

Sat Oct 27: SFG ml - 2.40:1 (+140) - Win 1.4 units profit.

OVERALL: +23.40 UNITS, +$2340

34/59 Singles - 57.6%

0/2 for 2 game parlays - 0%

2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%

1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%

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Professor524

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 268

Posted: Oct. 28, 2012 - 12:18 AM ET #133

NFL Picks for Sun Oct 28th: Got 4/5 last Sunday, and 1/1 on Thurs night, hopefully this week can keep up the success.

All prices are Pinnacle, as of 12:15 AM EST, Sun Oct 28.

NE -7 @ 1.99

ATL +3 @1.87

NO Saints money line @3.35

TEASER 7 game, 8:1 payout (+700)

NYG +4

NYG O41.5

NE -1

ATL +9

CHI -1.5

NO +12

I really think NO money line is a solid play as opposed to picking a +6. If it was +7.5, I would prob take it. I will not pay 30 cents for 1.5 points.

1 unit each on each play. GL everyone

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Professor524

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 268

Posted: Oct. 28, 2012 - 1:04 AM ET #134

A message to all of you:

I really enjoy this site. I enjoy a lot of the people here and do have constructive conversations, and despite having 25+ years of gambling experience, I still have learned plenty. So with that being said, I have some tough love for all you fellow gamblers.

I see a lot of you guys posting a lot of anger / venting posts. You need to stop and recognize why you are so angry. The simple answer for most of you is you are betting money you don't have, or, you are betting far too much. Either way, you are doing it all wrong. You are always one game away from being busto. I bet a lot of you angry guys owe rent in 3 days, and I am probably guessing most of you lost it tonight. Wake up kids. The Tigers bats are not the problem, you are.

Successful sports capping, and making profit, let me say that again, PROFIT, is all that matters. If you win 5 games in a row, big deal. If you lose 5 in a row, big deal. It's going to happen. Hell losing 10 in a row will happen, BUT if you bet properly, and bet singles, or 2 games max, preferably correlated parlays, then you have a good chance to make some real profit if you can pick winners. If you bet within your bankroll, and can control your emotions, you won't dump every last dollar on the Tigers because they have to win game 3, cause it's a "must" win. Who cares the juice is horribly inflated on the Tigers. It's a "lock" you say, they gotta win.

I am going to list the most important things here for you guys to understand. Beat it into your head. Read it over and over again until you finally GET IT.

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Professor524

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 268

Posted: Oct. 28, 2012 - 1:04 AM ET #135

-Bankroll management IS the most important thing. Until you can quantify your edge on each event, just bet 2% of your bankroll. THAT IS IT. No matter if it's the LOCK of the century. GOT IT? Even if all you have left is $50. $2 a game. When you can FINALLY stay within your bankroll, you will get it. And I don't mean being able to absorb variance, I mean BUILDING the DAMN PATIENCE within you and CONTROL. You will LEARN DISCIPLINE. GET IT DONE. DO IT so you can stop asking Grandma for some money to bail your ass out. GOT IT?

-Bet on single bets with reduced juice only. If you can't get on Pinnacle, don't let your local rip you off. Find the best price you can with a reliable book. If you take a bad line or a bad price just to get in a bet, you are missing the whole point, which is profit. If you took the Giants tonight (game 3) at +100, YOU LOST. GOT IT?

-Avoid public favourites, these lines are overpriced, unless you find value or a bad line, or hit the line when it's still profitable. This is a little more complicated, but as you progress and make your own true lines, you can see whether a favourite's line is over priced, or if there is some value still in it. Line shopping and laying off bad lines are just as important. LAY OFF BAD LINES, GOT IT?

-Don’t bet big dogs that don’t offer good price. If you like a dog, but it offers a garbage payout, then lay off. Same deal with the favourites, don't take a bad line on a dog. Dogs, specifically home dogs are where it's at (the $$$) most of the time, but sometimes a dog is just not worth the price being offered.

-Don’t ever watch games, the emotional swings will disrupt your mental and physical state. This is one of the toughest things, but trust me, you will be better off. You can watch them once you bet properly, 2%, and can control your emotions, but right now, I know most of you can't. I bet a lot of you were yelling at the TV when the Tigers left the bases loaded in game 3. If you got mad, YOU ARE DOING IT WRONG. Don't EVER let the emotion get to you. This causes chasing, tilt betting, and can even ruin your life. Your friends, your family will notice you walking around with this angry look. You will have this invisible field of negative energy and ppl will think you are a total degenerate. They will compare you to their uncle joe, who lost the house playing blackjack.

-Don’t ever bet after a tilting loss. Most of you will have your emotions are compromised. If you lose in the bottom of the 9th, or take a bad beat, like 8 runs in the first few innings, 0 the next 7 and miss the over, RECOGNIZE the game IS NOT OVER TILL IT's OVER. Don't celebrate early. Don't EVER make assumptions. Falling to emotion will cause you to make stupid bets. This is another reason why you don't watch games until you can master your emotions. When you lose 2% on a play, trust me, it doesn't hurt. After a few weeks, you will see the light and realize betting that 5 game parlay everyday, or betting 20% of your roll on the Pats over the Cards at home was a bad idea. So if you have not learned to master your emotions, then get the hell away from the computer (if you bet online) or don't call your bookie. GO FOR A WALK. Calm down, and recognize that it goes both ways. You won't remember the times YOU got lucky in the bottom of the 9th, but you should. MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER YOUR EMOTIONS.

-Don’t rush any bets. Cap properly. Take your time. Even if you think the line is going to get worse, then do your work early before the sharps hit the line. If you missed the key number or price, lay off. Don't bet a bad line. You know the drill now. Follow it.

-Look for an edge, don’t just bet to gamble. Some nights you will have only a few games. If you cannot find an edge, then just pass. It's tough, but just remember it's about PROFIT, not gambling. I know some degenerates that would bet womens handball in Europe because there was nothing else. It's pathetic. If you do this you will never win in the long run. Remember, you do this to make profit, not to gamble with no edge.

So take this all in. Read it over. These are the most important things you guys need to learn. If you can do this, and make money, you will be in the 1% club. You will have freedom. You can support yourself, and maybe even your family if you are that good (55-59% sustainable). It CAN be done, but it starts with YOU and CONTROL.

Goodluck.