Sun Oct 21st: All prices / spreads are from Pinnacle @ Oct 20, 6:19 EST.
Worked a while this week on my NFL picks. Have done fairly well this season 4/6 so hopefully this continues. This is not my forte but I am showing profit so I will post them.
NFL:
IND ml @ 1.83
GB -4.5 @ 1.90 (bought half pt from Pinny)
Was NYG Over 51 @ 1.91
NYJ NE Over 47 @ 1.92
NO Saints ml @ 1.88
MLB:
Going with STL money line. Yes Giants have all the momentum but looking at the math and statistics, Carpenter still has a much better record vs. Giants then Vogs does vs. Cards. I'll take Cards Bullpen as well over Giants. I believe the true lines to be Giants 1.95 and STL 2.00 so I will take the extra value as well on STL.
STL ml @ 2.10
GL
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Sun Oct 21st: All prices / spreads are from Pinnacle @ Oct 20, 6:19 EST.
Worked a while this week on my NFL picks. Have done fairly well this season 4/6 so hopefully this continues. This is not my forte but I am showing profit so I will post them.
NFL:
IND ml @ 1.83
GB -4.5 @ 1.90 (bought half pt from Pinny)
Was NYG Over 51 @ 1.91
NYJ NE Over 47 @ 1.92
NO Saints ml @ 1.88
MLB:
Going with STL money line. Yes Giants have all the momentum but looking at the math and statistics, Carpenter still has a much better record vs. Giants then Vogs does vs. Cards. I'll take Cards Bullpen as well over Giants. I believe the true lines to be Giants 1.95 and STL 2.00 so I will take the extra value as well on STL.
Going with Kyle @ 2.32:1 (+132) Cards close it out, this is a coin flip, but I will take the extra 30 cents. No way this is anywhere close to the true line. Not saying STL is a lock, but you have to look at the big picture and take the longterm +EV.
NFL:
Take the OVER 47 @ 2.00 (+100) DET CHI
*All prices from Pinnacle as of 1:10AM EST Mon Oct 22, 1 unit each
GL
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Mon Oct 22:
MLB:
Going with Kyle @ 2.32:1 (+132) Cards close it out, this is a coin flip, but I will take the extra 30 cents. No way this is anywhere close to the true line. Not saying STL is a lock, but you have to look at the big picture and take the longterm +EV.
NFL:
Take the OVER 47 @ 2.00 (+100) DET CHI
*All prices from Pinnacle as of 1:10AM EST Mon Oct 22, 1 unit each
Good morning guys. Off to work soon. Just wanted to update.
0/2, STL loss, Over 47 loss
OVERALL: +21.44 UNITS, +$2144
29/51 Singles - 56.8%
0/2 for 2 game parlays - 0%
2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%
Bad night, lost both. Not only did I lose but I was way off. Something that concerns me a lot more. Looking more closely at the NFL game there were 7 blow red zone plays at least. Tons of turnovers and botched plays. Even a blocked FG. So this game could have hit the over, just everything seemed to go wrong.
More concerned about the 9-0 Giants game. Never have I seen a team like St. Louis just roll over and take it. I mean they just gave up after game 5. It was horrible to watch. I give the Giants tons of credit but surely SOME sort of fight to defend your title.
In anycase, ony game I am playing Tuesday is KHL.
Tues Oct 23: CSKA Moscow -0.5 @1.92
Just remember it's a marathon, not a sprint. No matter how hot someone is, don't start increasing your bet sizes and bet more then you should (2-4%). Stay focused.
Goodluck guys.
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Good morning guys. Off to work soon. Just wanted to update.
0/2, STL loss, Over 47 loss
OVERALL: +21.44 UNITS, +$2144
29/51 Singles - 56.8%
0/2 for 2 game parlays - 0%
2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%
Bad night, lost both. Not only did I lose but I was way off. Something that concerns me a lot more. Looking more closely at the NFL game there were 7 blow red zone plays at least. Tons of turnovers and botched plays. Even a blocked FG. So this game could have hit the over, just everything seemed to go wrong.
More concerned about the 9-0 Giants game. Never have I seen a team like St. Louis just roll over and take it. I mean they just gave up after game 5. It was horrible to watch. I give the Giants tons of credit but surely SOME sort of fight to defend your title.
In anycase, ony game I am playing Tuesday is KHL.
Tues Oct 23: CSKA Moscow -0.5 @1.92
Just remember it's a marathon, not a sprint. No matter how hot someone is, don't start increasing your bet sizes and bet more then you should (2-4%). Stay focused.
Looking at the matchups, and history vs. the respective pitchers, Verlander clearly with better stats. As well, he can go the distance. No value on the ML but I the RL is about right in terms of value. The Tigers having the top of the 9th for insurance runs makes it a little easier to fire on the run line. Zitto can be exposed for a lot more runs then Verlander so this is my play.
Note: I will be making a small hedge after the top of the 9th, if the Tigers are up by 2+, and Verlander is pulled, I will def be hedging with the right odds if Valverde comes in.
1 unit on each play, 3 total. Goodluck guys.
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Wed Oct 24:
KHL Hockey
Dynamo Moscow -0.5 @ 2.0 (+100)
Magnitogorsk -0.5 @ 1.80 (-127)
MLB:
Tigers Run line @ 2.00 (+100)
Looking at the matchups, and history vs. the respective pitchers, Verlander clearly with better stats. As well, he can go the distance. No value on the ML but I the RL is about right in terms of value. The Tigers having the top of the 9th for insurance runs makes it a little easier to fire on the run line. Zitto can be exposed for a lot more runs then Verlander so this is my play.
Note: I will be making a small hedge after the top of the 9th, if the Tigers are up by 2+, and Verlander is pulled, I will def be hedging with the right odds if Valverde comes in.
Thanks Jason. I have some reasonable success with KHL, hitting about 60% in a 20 game sample size. Here I have only posted 1 play so far so take it with a grain of salt.
I just run the stats as per usual. One thing I noticed about KHL is travel. The distance visiting teams travel can sometimes be 5-6 hour flights. Just run a map and team locations. There is a english version of khl website en.khl.ru they have everything you need to do basic capping. GL.
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Thanks Jason. I have some reasonable success with KHL, hitting about 60% in a 20 game sample size. Here I have only posted 1 play so far so take it with a grain of salt.
I just run the stats as per usual. One thing I noticed about KHL is travel. The distance visiting teams travel can sometimes be 5-6 hour flights. Just run a map and team locations. There is a english version of khl website en.khl.ru they have everything you need to do basic capping. GL.
You lost Detroit on the RL, why are you not putting that in your won/loss record?
It should be obvious that I just missed it. Thank you however for noticing it. It was not a purposeful omission. Mistakes are bound to happen. I have reviewed my entire record and that is the only one I missed.
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Quote Originally Posted by Eaglespts:
You lost Detroit on the RL, why are you not putting that in your won/loss record?
It should be obvious that I just missed it. Thank you however for noticing it. It was not a purposeful omission. Mistakes are bound to happen. I have reviewed my entire record and that is the only one I missed.
Excellent jjj, I teach at the University of Toronto.
As for MNF, no I think that line Jason is pretty sharp. If I were to lean it's prob TB to cover 6.5 but i will be fading the spread. TB has shown to put up points so you never know.
Goodnite guys, I have the morning off tomm but I must catch up on my sleep!
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Excellent jjj, I teach at the University of Toronto.
As for MNF, no I think that line Jason is pretty sharp. If I were to lean it's prob TB to cover 6.5 but i will be fading the spread. TB has shown to put up points so you never know.
Goodnite guys, I have the morning off tomm but I must catch up on my sleep!
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