Posted:
#76
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Wow, you just can't bite off a big enough chunk, can you? Careful puppy, you're going to choke. The opening line is not a figment of someone's imagination. It maybe starts somewhere near true probability, then is adjusted for probable public response. Penalties to the favorite usually include home field, public popularity, regional preference, trends (which the public loves), streaks and a few other factors. After that only ONE thing moves the line and that is MONEY. The books have respect for MONEY, not any of the generally accepted public myths or power rankings or any other such thing. If you think they throw a number out there to attract $10 bettors because they know the other side will win, then you have little experience, none of good, and choose to believe books want to gamble against you. Long story short; there are millions of very serious dollars lurking out there that can't wait to punch a bad number. It is a risk no businessman would take, and bookmaking is a business for them, not a part time recreational activity like it is for you.
Wow, you just can't bite off a big enough chunk, can you? Careful puppy, you're going to choke. The opening line is not a figment of someone's imagination. It maybe starts somewhere near true probability, then is adjusted for probable public response. Penalties to the favorite usually include home field, public popularity, regional preference, trends (which the public loves), streaks and a few other factors. After that only ONE thing moves the line and that is MONEY. The books have respect for MONEY, not any of the generally accepted public myths or power rankings or any other such thing. If you think they throw a number out there to attract $10 bettors because they know the other side will win, then you have little experience, none of good, and choose to believe books want to gamble against you. Long story short; there are millions of very serious dollars lurking out there that can't wait to punch a bad number. It is a risk no businessman would take, and bookmaking is a business for them, not a part time recreational activity like it is for you.
absolutely wrong. the line is set by pinnacle alone. they do that by floating a line to the biggest gamblers in the world who help shape the initial line and have superior information and numerical techniques. Rational is that its ok to lose a million to them and win 10 million off the squares.
Pinnacle then anticipates the publics betting patterns by running algos on betting trends of the small betters (those $10 guys make up 90% of the take) then they float a line that optimizes the expected return based on taking a position assuming the public has no knowledge of the true probability. most don't.
all other bookies then just copy pinnacles opening line and aggressively profile members who are winners and minimize their ability to get liquidity down. There is no bookie that puts their line out before pinny because they would get slaughtered on middles.
THAT is how it really works and if you dont believe me go watch bob voulgaris say the same thing on youtube against the cantor fitz guy.
Bottom line. the book takes the position that maximizes their expected return, its truly no different then wall street now.
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