Posted:
#1
By now, betting on or against C.C. Sabathia has become as simple as checking the final score of his most recent start. According to this season's results, Sabathia appears to bear down following a start where the Yankees struggled to give him some runs. On the other hand, when they score a lot for him and they win, he comes out in his next start as soft as the bucket of lard he ate for breakfast. The Yankees are 9-1 this season with Sabathia following a start where they scored less than 5 runs behind him. But when C.C. is off a start where he got more than 4 runs of support and the Yankees won, the Yankees then.......
lost as -230 favorites to the Indians
lost as -130 favorites to the Tigers
lost as -165 favorites to the Phillies
lost as -200 favorites to the Rays
lost as -170 favorites to the Marlins
lost as -300 favorites to the Mariners
lost as -145 favorites to the Angels
lost as -150 favorites to the Rays
Last Sunday, Sabathia didn't pitch all that well but he got plenty of support in getting an 8-5 win over the White Sox in Chicago. So you know what that means. It means it's time to fade the Yankees and Sabathia again as vastly overpriced favorites. Even against the struggling Red Sox, who if I'm to believe what I'm hearing on ESPN's Baseball Tonight, are suddenly a piece of shit.
I don't expect Clay Buchholz to slow the Yankees down, but I don't expect much better out of Sabathia. I expect this game to go into the bullpens, at which point the outcome is up in the air. If I'm right about that, then I'll take my chances at +190 with a game that can tilt either way in the late innings.
I'll be adding some Boston alternate runline action, too, as not too many Red Sox/Yankees games are decided by one run (although we've had 3 so far this season in 10 meetings, but none of them happened at Yankee Stadium).
Remember, fellow gambling addicts, don't get carried away just because it's Red Sox/Yankees or because the game is on TV. Make sure you leave some money available for the night games!
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and it begins...gl
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