All Forums | MLB Betting

September Dogs - Starting with $4k

Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 768906
Posts: 1630
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #251
For 4.13.2013:

* The A's are 29-13 (69%) +22.41 units after 1 division series since 2012. They're 15-3 83.3% +15.6 units (+76.2% roi) after two division series.
* Since 2012, the Detroit Tigers have been just 25-33 (43.1%) -18.79 units (+26.5% roi fade) as road favorites. If you think Justin Verlander was an exception, you're wrong: He was the second worst investment next to Doug Fister going 11-10 -3.8 units.
* Since 2004, the home underdog is 1560-1809 (46.3%) +103.99 units in the first two and last two months of MLB.

Take:

#920 OAKLAND ATHLETICS +117 ($77 to win $90.09)
over the Detroit Tigers

List: Anderson / Verlander
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #252
For 4.14.2013 Take:

#977 Baltimore Orioles +104 ($112 to win $116.48)
over the New York Yankees

List: Chen / Kuroda

-Baltimore is 44-35 +26.82 units (+33.9% roi) since 2012 as road dogs. 
-That's 40-27 +28.73 units (+42.9% roi) where the total was greater than 7.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #253
For 4.16.2013 Take:

#980 Chicago Cubs +118 ($168 to win $198.24)
over the Texas Rangers

In Chicago:
*Since 2004, <=155 home dogs off of a loss are 33-22 (avg line +124.9) facing an opponent off of a loss in April.
*Since 2004, in April, home dogs off of a road loss are 47-27 SU in series game 1.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 3641
Posted: #254
Had Houston as a dog in their season opener!
They're getting more runs than expected via "small-ball" and have
decent pitching in comparison.  They're going to be a pretty good dog
by hitting the whole season long.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #255
Quote Originally Posted by Pendo:

Had Houston as a dog in their season opener!
They're getting more runs than expected via "small-ball" and have
decent pitching in comparison.  They're going to be a pretty good dog
by hitting the whole season long.

I agree with you Pendo. I had Houston too in the opener. Felt pretty good to hit that one. They'll be finding themselves in a lot of classic money spots this season. Houston may just finish in the black (units won) this year. Then again maybe not, still a lot work to do, and they weren't able to take any of that season opener magic with them anywhere.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #256
For 4.17.2013 Take:

#920 Baltimore Orioles +104 ($385 to win $400.40)
over Tampa Bay Rays

List: Tillman / Moore

*The Baltimore Orioles are 57-44 SU +31.37 units (+31.1% roi) since 2012 as Underdogs in games where the total is greater than 7.
*Matt Moore is SU: 0-8 (+113.7% roi fade) career as a road favorite starter.
-Since 2012, the Rays are just 29-38 -16.93 units as 100-150 favorites.

Over 55% of the public bets are already on Tampa Bay. 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #257
For 4.22.2013 Take:

#966 Baltimore Orioles -1 +129 ($616 to win $794.64)
over the Toronto Blue Jays

List: Happ / Tillman

-Since 2012, the O's are 49-31 +21.72 units after a game going OVER the total. 
-Since 2012, the O's are 31-19 +15.99 units SU and 35-15 +19.1 units RL after 2+ games where they had zero errors.
Since 2011, the Blue Jays are 12-31 (27.9%, +38.4%  roi fade [+20.22 units]) after 2+ games where the bullpen didn't allow any runs.

Go Baltimore!

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #258
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 4.22.2013 Take:

#966 Baltimore Orioles -1 +129 ($616 to win $794.64)
over the Toronto Blue Jays

List: Happ / Tillman

-Since 2012, the O's are 49-31 +21.72 units after a game going OVER the total. 
-Since 2012, the O's are 31-19 +15.99 units SU and 35-15 +19.1 units RL after 2+ games where they had zero errors.
Since 2011, the Blue Jays are 12-31 (27.9%, +38.4%  roi fade [+20.22 units]) after 2+ games where the bullpen didn't allow any runs.

Go Baltimore!

Pushed...
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #259
For 4.22.2013 Take:

#971 Oakland Athletics +143 ($616 to win $794.64)
over the Boston Red Sox

*List Anderson/Lester (definitely list Lester)

*The Oakland A's are 36-13 (73.5%, +30.83 units, +58.6% roi) since 2012 after 4+ games on the road. 22-8 +17.56 units after win.
*Jon Lester is just 11-19 (36.7%, -20.66 units, +60% roi fade) as a home favorite since 2011. 
*That's a real nasty 3-14 (17.6%, -21.15 units, +114.1% fade) for -150 to -200 at home since 2011.

So far no one wants any part of Oakland today (nearly 0% of the public bets) even though they smoked Boston yesterday 13-0.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #260
Ah sorry that last post for Oakland +143 is for today (4.24.2013).

Let's cash one of these dogs...
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #261
Gahhh. Another typo there. Should be ($616 to win $880.88)

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #262
For 4.29.2013 take:

Two Team Parlay:
#902 Atlanta Braves +1.5 RL
#918 Detroit Tigers ML
($924 to win $1,358.28)

***Since 2004, -200 to -250 favorites are a massive 211-78 (73%) +38.5 units in the first two months. 8-0 this season.
*Since 2002, April dogs off of a 1,2 run win or less than 10 run loss against plus .400 opponents are 973-1107 +153.96 units (+7.4% roi).
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #263
 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 3843
Posted: #264
There was a loss -225 opening line April 19 th and more than 8 wins this year might want to check your stats!
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2002
Posts: 66013
Posted: #265

Good luck herb!

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #266
Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

There was a loss -225 opening line April 19 th and more than 8 wins this year might want to check your stats!

Oh my God. Pardon me. That game closed at -280 or above -250 in most books so it simply didn't get logged in my database. 

PLEASE forgive me for that one. I will have to try harder when checking my stats.

Thanks for the advice...
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #267
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 4.29.2013 take:

Two Team Parlay:
#902 Atlanta Braves +1.5 RL
#918 Detroit Tigers ML
($924 to win $1,358.28)

***Since 2004, -200 to -250 favorites are a massive 211-78 (73%) +38.5 units in the first two months. 8-0 this season.
*Since 2002, April dogs off of a 1,2 run win or less than 10 run loss against plus .400 opponents are 973-1107 +153.96 units (+7.4% roi).

WINNER!


New Bankroll: $5,583.80 (+39.6%)
from $4000
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #268
Quote Originally Posted by tinfoils:

Good luck herb!


Thanks. Where were you on the last 20 plays I lost lol.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #269
For 4.30.2013 Take:

Two Team Parlay:
#962 Arizona Diamonbacks +1.5 RL
#968 Detroit Tigers ML
(1 unit to win 1.29 units)

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #270
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 4.30.2013 Take:

Two Team Parlay:
#962 Arizona Diamonbacks +1.5 RL
#968 Detroit Tigers ML
(1 unit to win 1.29 units)


Ah sorry that's ($77 to win $99.33)
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #271
Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 4.30.2013 Take:

Two Team Parlay:
#962 Arizona Diamonbacks +1.5 RL
#968 Detroit Tigers ML
($77 to win $99.33) WINNER!


New Bankroll: $5,683.13 (+42.08%)
from $4000
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #272
For 5.3.2013 Take:

#930 Colorado Rockies +114 ($78 to win $88.92)
over the Tampa Bay Rays

*Since 2008, teams whose tired (thrown 8+ innings last two games) bullpens' just got hammered 4+ earned runs are good fades: 644-529 (54.9%, +68.78 units, +4.6% roi).
-Last game, the Rays bullpen gave up 7 runs. The starter was relieved in just the 5th inning. Game before that, 4 runs and after 4 bombed in in the 6th.
-The Rockies' gave up 0 runs last game. The also do very well coming home after a long (4+ game) road trip: 16-5 (76.2%) +11.79 units since 2011.

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2003
Posts: 10395
Posted: #273
smart man.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 861
Posted: #274
For 5.4.2013 Take:

#976 Houston Astros +1 +125 ($156 to win $195)
over the Detroit Tigers


 
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2002
Posts: 66013
Posted: #275
Good luck herb!
All Forums | MLB Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.