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SJP: "On extremely rare occasions, I will lay -200 or more on a game."

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Posted: #26
This is a horrible play sarah and you know it. This is a play that does not win enough times in a season to gain a profit. I'm on the padres, philles bad at closing out the sweep and in a huge look ahead spot to the giants. Cliff lee is also only on 4 1/2 days rest. The phillies could win, but that is a shitty line to be taking and risking that much in a game that will clearly mean nothing to the phillies.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by JulesWinfield:

are u stealin kushdoubts plays?



Phillies ML

Yankees ML

Red Sox ML

Braves ML




 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by eliminat0r85:

This is a horrible play sarah and you know it. This is a play that does not win enough times in a season to gain a profit. I'm on the padres, philles bad at closing out the sweep and in a huge look ahead spot to the giants. Cliff lee is also only on 4 1/2 days rest. The phillies could win, but that is a shitty line to be taking and risking that much in a game that will clearly mean nothing to the phillies.

Agreed. 
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:

"Lee has been at his best at Citizens Bank Park, posting a 0.44 ERA in his last five starts there and going 6-0 with a 0.95 ERA in seven home starts since losing to Atlanta on May 6." -ESPN.com


Against whom though?  I read the same preview but honestly ESPN doesn't give alot of H2H stats. I mean I can't say they lose, but laying that sortof juice is just extremely difficult for me esp in the NL where anything 'can happen'.  Course, that could be said for any MLB game.  I know we aren't the best of friends Sarah, but I thought I would at least post some insight into your thread to spark some discussion on the game itself.  No need to respond to me personally.


 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by TDHCentral:



Against whom though?  I read the same preview but honestly ESPN doesn't give alot of H2H stats. I mean I can't say they lose, but laying that sortof juice is just extremely difficult for me esp in the NL where anything 'can happen'.  Course, that could be said for any MLB game.  I know we aren't the best of friends Sarah, but I thought I would at least post some insight into your thread to spark some discussion on the game itself.  No need to respond to me personally.



Well, he's playing the Padres tomorrow, so his record has to be against superior offenses. 

We are best friends. 

 
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Posted: #31
At least its house money
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by eliminat0r85:

This is a horrible play sarah and you know it. This is a play that does not win enough times in a season to gain a profit. I'm on the padres, philles bad at closing out the sweep and in a huge look ahead spot to the giants. Cliff lee is also only on 4 1/2 days rest. The phillies could win, but that is a shitty line to be taking and risking that much in a game that will clearly mean nothing to the phillies.
  what r u the fucking gambling coach  
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:



San Diego has great value at +200. 

Cameron Maybin doesnt think so......kid is locked in.....and the team is rallying behind him it seems......DaddyLongLegs is finally showing some of that potential.........

And he's right the Phillies have a 6 game lead...... with that staff theres no way they dont atleast get the wildcard.......Harang knows he can beat this team......

 
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Posted: #34
I know this play is out of the norm for me, especially since I've only played 18.5% "favorites" and only 3 favorites above -140. 

But, Phillies ML isn't even the crazy part of my plan.

With a win, part 2 of the plan is to take Seattle. 


 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by stats1:

  what r u the fucking gambling coach  


Nope just trying to make sure people don't get slaughtered tomorrow. High juice on half the games on the card, ohhh the bookies gonna be like this tomorrow night
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by eliminat0r85:



Nope just trying to make sure people don't get slaughtered tomorrow. High juice on half the games on the card, ohhh the bookies gonna be like this tomorrow night

Common misconception with big lines on the same card. The books don't win the majority of games, but they win enough volume on the plays they do come out on top of to profit or break even.

Example:

1 million dollars action on Phillies

1 million dollars action of Yankees

4 million dollars action on Red Sox

Boston loses but Philadelphia and New York win and the books clean up on Red Sox regardless. 

Look at all the big favorites who won today. I can almost guarantee you the Rangers were the most parlayed team on the board because "19 ERA VS Ogando/Rangers." I only checked 10 threads today, and 6 of them had a Rangers-Phillies ML parlay. Doomed. 
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by eliminat0r85:



Nope just trying to make sure people don't get slaughtered tomorrow. High juice on half the games on the card, ohhh the bookies gonna be like this tomorrow night
that's because the bookies r the smart ones not the ones playing  4game fucking parlays with every team near -200
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:

I know this play is out of the norm for me, especially since I've only played 18.5% "favorites" and only 3 favorites above -140. 

But, Phillies ML isn't even the crazy part of my plan.

With a win, part 2 of the plan is to take Seattle. 

 
 

Ok you lost me there......

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:


Well, he's playing the Padres tomorrow, so his record has to be against superior offenses. 

We are best friends. 





Honestly, as a Braves fan, I can say that the NL has very limited 'superior offenses'.  The stat ESPN gave was as that park for only his last 5 starts.  That's hardly a staggering statistic.  Phillies actually match up well with Braves, Pads, Marlins, etc over several years running and while I can see 'why' you think Philly might prevail here, I cannot justify a play on them myself. I wish you luck on the play esp cause you are laying the juice, but I cannot.  GL
 
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Posted: #40
It's hardly ever the big favorite that you can make a case for the dog that actually comes through IMO and from my experiences.

Gio VS Yankees had a great case today out of all of the "big favorites" and lost. 

Harang has a case (as displayed in this thread) as the best of the big dog plays tomorrow and that logic usually gets trumped.

Rangers VS 19 ERA yesterday was the worst angle for a dog to win and they did.

That's how baseball works, yeah? 


 
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Posted: #41

I don't think that logic gets trumped enough for it to be a profitable strategy but it sounds interesting......

 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by TDHCentral:





Honestly, as a Braves fan, I can say that the NL has very limited 'superior offenses'.  The stat ESPN gave was as that park for only his last 5 starts.  That's hardly a staggering statistic.  Phillies actually match up well with Braves, Pads, Marlins, etc over several years running and while I can see 'why' you think Philly might prevail here, I cannot justify a play on them myself. I wish you luck on the play esp cause you are laying the juice, but I cannot.  GL

I use year over year statistics when a team is similar in composition. The Padres are a shell of what Cliff Lee dealt with last season in Seattle when they drilled him. 

 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by DeHoyos:

I don't think that logic gets trumped enough for it to be a profitable strategy but it sounds interesting......


Yeah, who the hell knows. If I lose on Phillies, it'll be a reminder as to why I don't lay money on -130 or more teams let alone -230. 

So, a win-win. 

I'd rather the Padres keep it close and the Phillies win late so I can be taught a lesson and still win at the same time. 
 
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Posted: #44
Yeah but the Phillies offense was just as good if not better when Harang won 7 of 9 vs them........
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:


Common misconception with big lines on the same card. The books don't win the majority of games, but they win enough volume on the plays they do come out on top of to profit or break even.

Example:

1 million dollars action on Phillies

1 million dollars action of Yankees

4 million dollars action on Red Sox

Boston loses but Philadelphia and New York win and the books clean up on Red Sox regardless. 

Look at all the big favorites who won today. I can almost guarantee you the Rangers were the most parlayed team on the board because "19 ERA VS Ogando/Rangers." I only checked 10 threads today, and 6 of them had a Rangers-Phillies ML parlay. Doomed. 


That is not a misconception nowhere did i say they were all gonna lose. I just said the bookies were gonna be real happy tomorrow night. You have 5 huge favorites. 3 of those huge favorites are not in the best of spots. 2 of those 5 could lose and its all good. Not to mention you throw on top of that that every donk in the world will parlay all 5. Yea its gonna be a booky day tomorrow. Don't be surprised if it's not a blood bath on the ones with the most exposure as the ones with the most exposure are gonna be the yanks/phils/red sox. Some people will hit the braves but there will be people who actually recognize the pirates are doing well.

Mariners, royals and padres are gonna get no respect tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by eliminat0r85:



That is not a misconception nowhere did i say they were all gonna lose. I just said the bookies were gonna be real happy tomorrow night. You have 5 huge favorites. 3 of those huge favorites are not in the best of spots. 2 of those 5 could lose and its all good. Not to mention you throw on top of that that every donk in the world will parlay all 5. Yea its gonna be a booky day tomorrow. Don't be surprised if it's not a blood bath on the ones with the most exposure as the ones with the most exposure are gonna be the yanks/phils/red sox. Some people will hit the braves but there will be people who actually recognize the pirates are doing well.

Mariners, royals and padres are gonna get no respect tomorrow.

50% of the messages in this thread are pro-Padres or most think this is a stupid play. So, no respect for Padres angle is out the window.

Royals will get no respect and they don't deserve any.

Mariners will get action, too. 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:

It's hardly ever the big favorite that you can make a case for the dog that actually comes through IMO and from my experiences.

Gio VS Yankees had a great case today out of all of the "big favorites" and lost. 

Harang has a case (as displayed in this thread) as the best of the big dog plays tomorrow and that logic usually gets trumped.

Rangers VS 19 ERA yesterday was the worst angle for a dog to win and they did.

That's how baseball works, yeah? 




Gio did not have a great case today. a's havent won back to back games since i was born, yanks awesome in the day time and crush lefties. Anyone who thought gio had a case today was sippin too much gio koolaid. Yea he has an awesome era an a massive park good for him.
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by eliminat0r85:



Gio did not have a great case today. a's havent won back to back games since i was born, yanks awesome in the day time and crush lefties. Anyone who thought gio had a case today was sippin too much gio koolaid. Yea he has an awesome era an a massive park good for him.

Easy to say this after the fact. 
 
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Posted: #49
Rangers bit a lot of people tonight, now people are on edge and are looking for the dog to bet. 

Maybe it's behind door #1, maybe it's not. We'll find out in the AM. 

I like the angle where Philly wins, everyone lets their guard down, and then BANG! Dog day. Who knows. 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:


50% of the messages in this thread are pro-Padres or most think this is a stupid play. So, no respect for Padres angle is out the window.

Royals will get no respect and they don't deserve any.

Mariners will get action, too. 


Ok firstly 50% of 10 people isn't shit. This board will be full of phillies backers tomorrow, and im prdicting about an 80%/20% split. It cliff lee in philly, every donk in the country saw the same stats as you. Those of us who wanna play a sharp play are gonna play padres based soley on the situation and pray that it hits. It's not likely but if it does we'll look damn smart. Just can't lay that juice in this situation.

Secondly the royals deserve more respect then you might think. The red sox are on of my favorite teams and lester has not been dominant most of this year, he is coming off the DL and will most likely have a pitch count, the bull pen for boston has been used this wknd.

The mariners are only gonna get love from the garcia -200 wtf crowd. There will still be plenty of money on the yankees. Mariners losers of 15 in a row will not get any respect. Although they have scored quite a few runs and have been in most of those games so they deserve a lot more then what they'll get. Same with astros.
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