Yep I look at umps too but they are maybe 5% factor in my play unless it's a total. Strike zones, etc are important.
Agreed, but I only look at them on Totals.
I think an ump favoring a home or road side over the course of time is happenstance and not a trend. I think referees are more influenced on sides in other sports but most umpires can make big calls due to the fact that they're hiding behind ugly masks.
Other referees (football and basketball) are exposed so they may have a tougher time making a big call for the road team.
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Quote Originally Posted by TDHCentral:
Yep I look at umps too but they are maybe 5% factor in my play unless it's a total. Strike zones, etc are important.
Agreed, but I only look at them on Totals.
I think an ump favoring a home or road side over the course of time is happenstance and not a trend. I think referees are more influenced on sides in other sports but most umpires can make big calls due to the fact that they're hiding behind ugly masks.
Other referees (football and basketball) are exposed so they may have a tougher time making a big call for the road team.
If the majority of sharp players (players who have a profit with a sportsbook over the course of time) played the UNDER in PHI/SD today and lost, then the sharp side lost. The sharp side does lose, ya know?
If the majority of square players (players who have a deficit with a sportsbook over the course of time) played the OVER in PHI/SD today and won, then that square play won.
That's how "sharp" plays and "square" plays are determined by the books. Covers forumers just throw the terms around as insults or to feel cool.
So basically what you just said is if a bunch of donks and first year gamblers with losing records and parlay players are on the phillies tomorrow its a square play?? if thats the case then it will def. be a square play and it will def be bet on by people with losing records.
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Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:
Wrong, again.
If the majority of sharp players (players who have a profit with a sportsbook over the course of time) played the UNDER in PHI/SD today and lost, then the sharp side lost. The sharp side does lose, ya know?
If the majority of square players (players who have a deficit with a sportsbook over the course of time) played the OVER in PHI/SD today and won, then that square play won.
That's how "sharp" plays and "square" plays are determined by the books. Covers forumers just throw the terms around as insults or to feel cool.
So basically what you just said is if a bunch of donks and first year gamblers with losing records and parlay players are on the phillies tomorrow its a square play?? if thats the case then it will def. be a square play and it will def be bet on by people with losing records.
Sharps are actually those who 'move lines' to their benefit.
They place a huge amt on a fav (or dog) to move the line in favor of an underdog/fav so they can arbitrage. They don't win/lose money on betting on the actual facet of the game. They play the lines...period. They know the stats/#'s and they know within their Numbers the best chance of hitting either side or total so they bet the other way initially to get the line moving and then bet the other way. That's a sharp.
Squares= us and that's why we aren't Billy.
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Sharps are actually those who 'move lines' to their benefit.
They place a huge amt on a fav (or dog) to move the line in favor of an underdog/fav so they can arbitrage. They don't win/lose money on betting on the actual facet of the game. They play the lines...period. They know the stats/#'s and they know within their Numbers the best chance of hitting either side or total so they bet the other way initially to get the line moving and then bet the other way. That's a sharp.
I think an ump favoring a home or road side over the course of time is happenstance and not a trend. I think referees are more influenced on sides in other sports but most umpires can make big calls due to the fact that they're hiding behind ugly masks.
Other referees (football and basketball) are exposed so they may have a tougher time making a big call for the road team.
LOL...Totally agree!
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Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:
Agreed, but I only look at them on Totals.
I think an ump favoring a home or road side over the course of time is happenstance and not a trend. I think referees are more influenced on sides in other sports but most umpires can make big calls due to the fact that they're hiding behind ugly masks.
Other referees (football and basketball) are exposed so they may have a tougher time making a big call for the road team.
Yeah it was and he went 6.2....but still....the guy is a really good pitcher regardless of the time zone.....
Not counting this year since he started he is .500 on the road with an almost 5 era. I would not consider this really good. To each their own though, i personally think he's a bit over rated. In oakland though i wouldn't fade him.
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Quote Originally Posted by DeHoyos:
Yeah it was and he went 6.2....but still....the guy is a really good pitcher regardless of the time zone.....
Not counting this year since he started he is .500 on the road with an almost 5 era. I would not consider this really good. To each their own though, i personally think he's a bit over rated. In oakland though i wouldn't fade him.
Theres sharp bets, theres square bets, and theres professionals who move lines and hustle books with shit tons of money and hitting just above.500. It doesn't matter what you are, all that matters is the + and the numbers next to it.
Sharp plays win, square plays win, moving lines and backing the move wins, moving lines and fading the move for more wins.
Stupid plays the ones with no long term ability to profit from are the ones that crush bankrolls, those are the ones to avoid.
For the record the red sox today were pretty square they won, and a sharp play like the diamondbacks won. If you don't think the red sox were square you completely ignored wakes numbers vs seattle. If you don't think the diamonbacks were sharp you were clearly only focused on ubaldo and not the 13 game sunday losing streak the rockies are on, make that 14 now.
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The misconceptions on this forum are staggering.
Theres sharp bets, theres square bets, and theres professionals who move lines and hustle books with shit tons of money and hitting just above.500. It doesn't matter what you are, all that matters is the + and the numbers next to it.
Sharp plays win, square plays win, moving lines and backing the move wins, moving lines and fading the move for more wins.
Stupid plays the ones with no long term ability to profit from are the ones that crush bankrolls, those are the ones to avoid.
For the record the red sox today were pretty square they won, and a sharp play like the diamondbacks won. If you don't think the red sox were square you completely ignored wakes numbers vs seattle. If you don't think the diamonbacks were sharp you were clearly only focused on ubaldo and not the 13 game sunday losing streak the rockies are on, make that 14 now.
Theres sharp bets, theres square bets, and theres professionals who move lines and hustle books with shit tons of money and hitting just above.500. It doesn't matter what you are, all that matters is the + and the numbers next to it.
Sharp plays win, square plays win, moving lines and backing the move wins, moving lines and fading the move for more wins.
Stupid plays the ones with no long term ability to profit from are the ones that crush bankrolls, those are the ones to avoid.
For the record the red sox today were pretty square they won, and a sharp play like the diamondbacks won. If you don't think the red sox were square you completely ignored wakes numbers vs seattle. If you don't think the diamonbacks were sharp you were clearly only focused on ubaldo and not the 13 game sunday losing streak the rockies are on, make that 14 now.
I've already defined "square" and "sharp" for you.
Boston was actually a sharp play today. The majority of action from sharps was on the Red Sox at the Hilton. You can read some professional bookmaker's blogs. Writers at Covers have access to this information post-bet and sometimes pre-bet if you read the columns. They communicate a lot with Jimmy Vaccaro, too. Knowing the sharp or square side doesn't mean you're going to make money though.
My advice to you would be to stop trying to guess what's sharp and what's square and probably throw those terms out altogether. Make friends with a bookmaker and after the games are over or read blogs from the real bookmakers in Vegas and they'll let you know who was on which side if you really want to know.
Okay, now that that's cleared up and I can sleep easier.
Nighty night.
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Quote Originally Posted by eliminat0r85:
The misconceptions on this forum are staggering.
Theres sharp bets, theres square bets, and theres professionals who move lines and hustle books with shit tons of money and hitting just above.500. It doesn't matter what you are, all that matters is the + and the numbers next to it.
Sharp plays win, square plays win, moving lines and backing the move wins, moving lines and fading the move for more wins.
Stupid plays the ones with no long term ability to profit from are the ones that crush bankrolls, those are the ones to avoid.
For the record the red sox today were pretty square they won, and a sharp play like the diamondbacks won. If you don't think the red sox were square you completely ignored wakes numbers vs seattle. If you don't think the diamonbacks were sharp you were clearly only focused on ubaldo and not the 13 game sunday losing streak the rockies are on, make that 14 now.
I've already defined "square" and "sharp" for you.
Boston was actually a sharp play today. The majority of action from sharps was on the Red Sox at the Hilton. You can read some professional bookmaker's blogs. Writers at Covers have access to this information post-bet and sometimes pre-bet if you read the columns. They communicate a lot with Jimmy Vaccaro, too. Knowing the sharp or square side doesn't mean you're going to make money though.
My advice to you would be to stop trying to guess what's sharp and what's square and probably throw those terms out altogether. Make friends with a bookmaker and after the games are over or read blogs from the real bookmakers in Vegas and they'll let you know who was on which side if you really want to know.
Okay, now that that's cleared up and I can sleep easier.
I rarely ever open your threads. I don't really care for your attention-grabbing, SEO-driven headlines. But I get it: You are a marketing machine for Covers/SDI. That's cool, do your thing.
That being said, you're looking at this game completely wrong. Where is the value laying 1/2.3 ... playing against a pitcher who is 5-1 L3 starts in CBP, You are laying a ridiculous price fading a pitcher that is in great current form right now (1.47 ERA, 1.04 WHIP L3) The crafty veteran Harang is gonna be dealing his junk and he will be effective with it!
The smart money is on SD, with a far superior bullpen and capable SP that can be very effective with high GB rate when he's on. And as tuck mentioned, he's going on his preferred rest, too.
And laying a big price overnight before lineups are announced? With FA deadline looming, trade could shake things up on any given day.
You make some good points on Cliffy, and agree he should be able to mow SD down with ease, but to me, it seems like the value would be on the UNDER then? Rather pay -110 then -230. (under also 9-2 L11 between two teams).
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Sarah J:
I rarely ever open your threads. I don't really care for your attention-grabbing, SEO-driven headlines. But I get it: You are a marketing machine for Covers/SDI. That's cool, do your thing.
That being said, you're looking at this game completely wrong. Where is the value laying 1/2.3 ... playing against a pitcher who is 5-1 L3 starts in CBP, You are laying a ridiculous price fading a pitcher that is in great current form right now (1.47 ERA, 1.04 WHIP L3) The crafty veteran Harang is gonna be dealing his junk and he will be effective with it!
The smart money is on SD, with a far superior bullpen and capable SP that can be very effective with high GB rate when he's on. And as tuck mentioned, he's going on his preferred rest, too.
And laying a big price overnight before lineups are announced? With FA deadline looming, trade could shake things up on any given day.
You make some good points on Cliffy, and agree he should be able to mow SD down with ease, but to me, it seems like the value would be on the UNDER then? Rather pay -110 then -230. (under also 9-2 L11 between two teams).
Also agree that laying -200 once in awhile in the right spots can be profitable. But that's only if it's a strong situational play, and this isn't one of those.
I guess I'm saying what did you make this game? Don't see why you were lining up to bet this one overnight and why so confident on it.
Seems like SD, +1.5 and Under would be the smart plays here, could definitely see a one-run, 3-2 ish game. Either way, good luck.
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Also agree that laying -200 once in awhile in the right spots can be profitable. But that's only if it's a strong situational play, and this isn't one of those.
I guess I'm saying what did you make this game? Don't see why you were lining up to bet this one overnight and why so confident on it.
Seems like SD, +1.5 and Under would be the smart plays here, could definitely see a one-run, 3-2 ish game. Either way, good luck.
Interesting decision. They have only swept 2 teams at home all season. They are about to play the team that knocked them out of the playoffs. Harang is 4-2 at the site. Harang on 4 days rest this season is 5-0 with an ERA of 1.54. Certainly an interesting spot for this decision.
Just re-posting this in case anyone missed it -- because it's a good post.
And typo in first post above obviously ... should say (5-1 L6 starts).
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Quote Originally Posted by tuck321:
Interesting decision. They have only swept 2 teams at home all season. They are about to play the team that knocked them out of the playoffs. Harang is 4-2 at the site. Harang on 4 days rest this season is 5-0 with an ERA of 1.54. Certainly an interesting spot for this decision.
Just re-posting this in case anyone missed it -- because it's a good post.
And typo in first post above obviously ... should say (5-1 L6 starts).
I've already defined "square" and "sharp" for you.
Boston was actually a sharp play today. The majority of action from sharps was on the Red Sox at the Hilton. You can read some professional bookmaker's blogs. Writers at Covers have access to this information post-bet and sometimes pre-bet if you read the columns. They communicate a lot with Jimmy Vaccaro, too. Knowing the sharp or square side doesn't mean you're going to make money though.
My advice to you would be to stop trying to guess what's sharp and what's square and probably throw those terms out altogether. Make friends with a bookmaker and after the games are over or read blogs from the real bookmakers in Vegas and they'll let you know who was on which side if you really want to know.
Okay, now that that's cleared up and I can sleep easier.
Nighty night.
No you didn't you just think you did cause you're a know it all. Laying juice with a starting pitcher who is way below .500 against the mariners in his career even though the mariners are on a horrible losing streak is pretty square. Also laying juice one a team that has lost 13 sundays in a row is pretty square. A sharp bettor may have made this bets but they were square plays. A sharp bettor and a sharp play are two different things. You have defined sharp bettor a person over the long haul has determined he is a winner. Not all sharps always make sharp plays.
Also why in gods name would i care who the sharps were on after the games are over. Thats pretty stupid to even suggest to do.
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Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:
I've already defined "square" and "sharp" for you.
Boston was actually a sharp play today. The majority of action from sharps was on the Red Sox at the Hilton. You can read some professional bookmaker's blogs. Writers at Covers have access to this information post-bet and sometimes pre-bet if you read the columns. They communicate a lot with Jimmy Vaccaro, too. Knowing the sharp or square side doesn't mean you're going to make money though.
My advice to you would be to stop trying to guess what's sharp and what's square and probably throw those terms out altogether. Make friends with a bookmaker and after the games are over or read blogs from the real bookmakers in Vegas and they'll let you know who was on which side if you really want to know.
Okay, now that that's cleared up and I can sleep easier.
Nighty night.
No you didn't you just think you did cause you're a know it all. Laying juice with a starting pitcher who is way below .500 against the mariners in his career even though the mariners are on a horrible losing streak is pretty square. Also laying juice one a team that has lost 13 sundays in a row is pretty square. A sharp bettor may have made this bets but they were square plays. A sharp bettor and a sharp play are two different things. You have defined sharp bettor a person over the long haul has determined he is a winner. Not all sharps always make sharp plays.
Also why in gods name would i care who the sharps were on after the games are over. Thats pretty stupid to even suggest to do.
Theres sharp bets, theres square bets, and theres professionals who move lines and hustle books with shit tons of money and hitting just above.500. It doesn't matter what you are, all that matters is the + and the numbers next to it.
Sharp plays win, square plays win, moving lines and backing the move wins, moving lines and fading the move for more wins.
Stupid plays the ones with no long term ability to profit from are the ones that crush bankrolls, those are the ones to avoid.
For the record the red sox today were pretty square they won, and a sharp play like the diamondbacks won. If you don't think the red sox were square you completely ignored wakes numbers vs seattle. If you don't think the diamonbacks were sharp you were clearly only focused on ubaldo and not the 13 game sunday losing streak the rockies are on, make that 14 now.
Honey...the sharp bets are professional as per my definition. Everyone else is square. You are either sharp or your aren't. There is no in between.
We are square. Face it and move on. + money is that matters.
Good luck
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Quote Originally Posted by eliminat0r85:
The misconceptions on this forum are staggering.
Theres sharp bets, theres square bets, and theres professionals who move lines and hustle books with shit tons of money and hitting just above.500. It doesn't matter what you are, all that matters is the + and the numbers next to it.
Sharp plays win, square plays win, moving lines and backing the move wins, moving lines and fading the move for more wins.
Stupid plays the ones with no long term ability to profit from are the ones that crush bankrolls, those are the ones to avoid.
For the record the red sox today were pretty square they won, and a sharp play like the diamondbacks won. If you don't think the red sox were square you completely ignored wakes numbers vs seattle. If you don't think the diamonbacks were sharp you were clearly only focused on ubaldo and not the 13 game sunday losing streak the rockies are on, make that 14 now.
Honey...the sharp bets are professional as per my definition. Everyone else is square. You are either sharp or your aren't. There is no in between.
We are square. Face it and move on. + money is that matters.
Honey...the sharp bets are professional as per my definition. Everyone else is square. You are either sharp or your aren't. There is no in between.
We are square. Face it and move on. + money is that matters.
Good luck
Theres still a diff. between a sharp bettor and a sharp play. It all has to deal with long term results.
Plus i totally already said it doesn't matter what the play is they all win, its all about the + and the number next to it for the majority on covers. If it's about the hobby and you like doing it it's all about enjoyment.
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Quote Originally Posted by TDHCentral:
Honey...the sharp bets are professional as per my definition. Everyone else is square. You are either sharp or your aren't. There is no in between.
We are square. Face it and move on. + money is that matters.
Good luck
Theres still a diff. between a sharp bettor and a sharp play. It all has to deal with long term results.
Plus i totally already said it doesn't matter what the play is they all win, its all about the + and the number next to it for the majority on covers. If it's about the hobby and you like doing it it's all about enjoyment.
Ok, I usually don't post here on Covers but I figured that I have something to say. When I first saw the pitching matchups for this game without knowing the line, I guessed the line would be around -200 or -210 at the most.. because Harang has been throwing very well and Padres are avoiding the sweep, but -230??? I have to go with Philies................ and the run line also.... if I lose?? I definitely won't regret that, because I made the decision that I believed I was right... well, soon we will find out.... btw BOL SJP!
I probably would have bet on Padres if the line was set around +180 ~ +190(That would have been more tempting than +210!!)
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Ok, I usually don't post here on Covers but I figured that I have something to say. When I first saw the pitching matchups for this game without knowing the line, I guessed the line would be around -200 or -210 at the most.. because Harang has been throwing very well and Padres are avoiding the sweep, but -230??? I have to go with Philies................ and the run line also.... if I lose?? I definitely won't regret that, because I made the decision that I believed I was right... well, soon we will find out.... btw BOL SJP!
I probably would have bet on Padres if the line was set around +180 ~ +190(That would have been more tempting than +210!!)
You warned me and I said "what the hell does she know, she's a girl" and you kicked my ass again! I will never fade you again!!!damn texas rangers!!! split 1-1 with gmen and tex 15-5 last 20, wanted that 16-4 (80%) mark so badly! : ( Hope to get a nice run my next 20 picks!! Good call SJP!! bowing to the master goddess!!
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You warned me and I said "what the hell does she know, she's a girl" and you kicked my ass again! I will never fade you again!!!damn texas rangers!!! split 1-1 with gmen and tex 15-5 last 20, wanted that 16-4 (80%) mark so badly! : ( Hope to get a nice run my next 20 picks!! Good call SJP!! bowing to the master goddess!!
supposedly getting a highly successful chance of winning Soccer Tip from my friend in vegas later today in the Premier League Scotland. Will post whenever I hear from him, but dont rip my head off if it loses, although he is 78% 31-9 in July on the month!
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supposedly getting a highly successful chance of winning Soccer Tip from my friend in vegas later today in the Premier League Scotland. Will post whenever I hear from him, but dont rip my head off if it loses, although he is 78% 31-9 in July on the month!
SJP, your twin just got stood up by Jay Cutler who hadcold feet on getting married!! What a moron he is to dump her!! Maybe he feels she will deter him from winning a Super Bowl!!
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SJP, your twin just got stood up by Jay Cutler who hadcold feet on getting married!! What a moron he is to dump her!! Maybe he feels she will deter him from winning a Super Bowl!!
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damn texas rangers!!! split 1-1 with gmen and tex 15-5 last 20, wanted that 16-4 (80%) mark so badly! : ( Hope to get a nice run my next 20 picks!! Good call SJP!!
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