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SJP: "On extremely rare occasions, I will lay -200 or more on a game."

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Posted: #101
The Most I personally laid on any game was minus 450 in a hockey game a long time ago. Had it at minus 900 and thought it was great value.
SJP makes a lot of reasonable arguments for Philadelphia.  They are the better team, have had Padres number, Lee is a better pitcher than Harang.
This season Phillies playing under 500 teams 34-17
In the second half 8-3
They definitely can win this game
Harang is still 3-1 with Drake
Drake last year was a big chalk dream.  This year home favorites are 8-4 with him.
Monday is still the second weakest day of the week for the Phillies.
Harang is still a pitcher that has had a lot of success at Philadelphia and the look ahead to the Giants is still huge.  And Philadelphia still only has 2 home sweeps.  Yesterday I had Boston so I must be a square.  Yesterday I had Arizona so I must be a sharp.  Today I have a 1 unit bet on the Padres.  If it losses no big deal.  Padres have already been swept twice on the road
Philadelphia has a payroll of not quite 173 million and the Padres are playing with about 46 million.  The spot still favors the Padres and I hope they get there.

 
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Posted: #102

Two stud pitchers... 

I think the UNDERS has more value than Philly ML... 

Aaron Harang is 8-2...  AND, everyone and there mom's are on phillies, so you know what that means

But, GL!  Im on the unders.. so I will be rooting for a 1 - 0 Philly win!

 
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Posted: #103
Beautiful......
 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:


Wrong, again.

If the majority of sharp players (players who have a profit with a sportsbook over the course of time) played the UNDER in PHI/SD today and lost, then the sharp side lost. The sharp side does lose, ya know?

If the majority of square players (players who have a deficit with a sportsbook over the course of time) played the OVER in PHI/SD today and won, then that square play won. 

That's how "sharp" plays and "square" plays are determined by the books. Covers forumers just throw the terms around as insults or to feel cool. 

Thanks for that definition I don't know how I suvived the last 30 years gambling without knowing the difference in those two terms.

 

 

 
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Posted: #105
Another thing to keep in consideration is that Aaron Maybin is questionable for the game today and it would be a big loss for the Padres if he is unable to start.
 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by scsiegel89:

Another thing to keep in consideration is that Cameron Maybin is questionable for the game today and it would be a big loss for the Padres if he is unable to start.
 
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Posted: #107
got the Bills Defense End confused with the Padres CF
 
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Posted: #108
She is asleep right now on the west coast. Fuck it, lets fade her! Padres to the bank..
 
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Posted: #109
She is an attention person and a pretty piss poor capper overall. She is trying to build up some kinda following so she can turn tout for covers. Anyone that has actually looked into her past year's betting history can clearly see she is in the red. I'd take a bet at even odds with pretty much anyone who wanted that she will finish the season under 10 units. :)
 
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Posted: #110

Quote Originally Posted by robbypants:

She is an attention person and a pretty piss poor capper overall. She is trying to build up some kinda following so she can turn tout for covers. Anyone that has actually looked into her past year's betting history can clearly see she is in the red. I'd take a bet at even odds with pretty much anyone who wanted that she will finish the season under 10 units. :)

I used to think the same thing.  I still believe she was off on her NBA Playoff capping - but then, I didn't make mad dollars on the NBA this year (I did make a tidy profit on the finals, which almost makes up for the money I lost betting OKC).

The thing is - she's getting paid by Covers.  She's never tried to hide this fact.  If you don't like it - don't read her stuff.  I still think she knows less than nothing about MMA (this coming from someone who has been to about a dozen MMA events in the last two years) - but I do think she knows her stuff when it comes to baseball.  And she's proven me wrong in that she does bet big dollars (full disclosure, my one unit bet is only $250 - so clearly she's got balls twice the size of mine, or she's rich) at least to me.  She has saved me some money with her picks - and while I wish she'd post more O/U selections as that's what I tend to bet - I now admit she's converted me to (or from depending on who you are) the dark side.

No more bashing from Keyser.  Just make me some money SJP.

 
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Posted: #111
So Keyser, do you work for covers too or just Sarah? lol
 
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Posted: #112
Sharps are not about a play, it's about the person making the bet.  A "Sharp" bettor gets the best price possible on games and does this at a successful rate. 

A "Square" bettor would make a bet like Phillies -230 and say "Wow Cliff Lee vs the Padres.  I'm about to lay -230 on a pitcher that boasts a 4.05 Career ERA vs the Padres, when clearly they do not deserve to be a 2.3/1 favorite.  This is money management suicide in the long run.  BOL, but I'm on the Padres.   
 
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Posted: #113
Not to be a dick, but personally, I think this is far and away the most overrated thread on Covers by a country mile.
 
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Posted: #114
Squares are sub 52.4%. Good bettors are around 55%. And sharps are around 57.5%. The two and a half percentage points separating the sharps from the good players is actually huge. A 57.5% winning percentage results in DOUBLE the profit of a 55% winning percentage. Thats something only sharps know. 

37% on the Padres, thats a pretty high clip. And the line is going against them.


 
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Posted: #115
Why don't you just keep humbly posting your picks with out being the Websters dictionary for the cover's gambling community, Your like a little league player trying to explain to the pro's how to play, your skills appear to improving and your take is interesting but there is no need to justify every play as sharp or square if your making them then we know which term to use.
 
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Posted: #116
If you like Philadelphia, play them. If you like San Diego, play them.

Is this bet going to make or break my season? No. It seems like we're discussing this pick and making it seem larger than it needs to be. It's just one game.

All the best to everyone betting on this game!

Also, rather than spending time on here bashing me, or bashing anyone else, why not use that time constructively and post your own picks and analysis?



SJP
 
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Posted: #117

Quote Originally Posted by Bluefin:

Why don't you just keep humbly posting your picks with out being the Websters dictionary for the cover's gambling community, Your like a little league player trying to explain to the pro's how to play, your skills appear to improving and your take is interesting but there is no need to justify every play as sharp or square if your making them then we know which term to use.

 

 

LET HIM BE ,IF YOU DONT LIKE IT, DONT READ IT,  AND IF NOT FUK OFF!!

 
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Posted: #119
hey sarah  la  angels  worth a look no bats in clev. lineup.
 
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Posted: #120
 
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Posted: #121
Sarah I wish you luck but there's no way I lay -200 on any team, that's the fast track to the poor house. GL though.
 
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Posted: #122
hey sarah  la  angels  worth a look no bats in clev. lineup.
 
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Posted: #123

Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:

If you like Philadelphia, play them. If you like San Diego, play them.

Is this bet going to make or break my season? No. It seems like we're discussing this pick and making it seem larger than it needs to be. It's just one game.

All the best to everyone betting on this game!

Also, rather than spending time on here bashing me, or bashing anyone else, why not use that time constructively and post your own picks and analysis?



SJP

Amen, I work full time so I dont want to waste my time sifting  through all the garbage to get to the goods.

 
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Posted: #124
I communicate a lot with a local on where the action is going because I don't trust online reporting on it:

Most people on the Phillies are on the RL and a very limited amount are playing the ML.

Most people on the Padres are on the ML and a very limited amount are playing the RL.

A Philadelphia win by 1 means he will clean house on the early game taking down the massive amount of Phillies -1.5 money AND the Padres ML money.
 
 
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Posted: #125

I think its ill-advised to bet philly with  such  high  juice.  230 is too much risk ....   Philly will probably  win but its  just  too much risk for a probable win.   I agree SanDiego will  probably lose but  they are a crazy  team that bunches  up their  hits.  they  might  come out and  score 13.

 

good luck but  there are  a lot more  games later  today.

 

 

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