Posted:
#1
67-46 (+19.32 Units)
An interesting couple of days in MLB over the weekend to say the least. For the last couple of weeks, the majority of favorites (small and large) were winning. I saw many winning streak threads with a lot of favorites as plays. We discussed when this would change---pitchers tiring, summer heat, hitters tiring, lack of focus, etc.
It seems like this past weekend there was a shift. Aside from Sunday afternoon when many large favorites covered MLs and RLs, many "public" favorites took a dive with the best three examples being the Yankees dropping a day game to the Athletics on Saturday, the Rays dropping a short favorite (but heavy actioned) play to the Royals on Saturday night, and concluding with the -200 Texas Rangers falling to the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday night.
This is especially relevant with today's card on the horizon. There are A LOT of big favorites on the card. It would be simple to believe that parlaying one or more of these heavy favorites and reducing the odds would be the best plays. Could they be? Sure. Is that a wise strategy? No. Tread with caution. Many of these favorites could and will win, but parlaying the wrong combination or taking an unnecessary runline could be disastrous. If you need an example, think of the Phillies-Rangers parlay from Sunday that was burned by the Blue Jays.
The day game, in my opinion, will set the tone. I believe the Philadelphia Phillies will beat the San Diego Padres. From there on out, it's going to get a little sticky. Don't use the Phillies winning as a sign for the rest of the day. Be cautious.
I'm making my wager on the Phillies based on a profitable weekend. It's a strong play but very heavily vigged. I don't recommend doing this more than once or twice a season, if that. IMO, the short memory of bettors remembering they lost on the Rangers at -200 or more on Sunday night will scare them away from the Phillies in the morning. Could I be wrong? Sure. Could Harang out duel Lee? Sure. However, I'm going to go with the Phillies newly ignited offense and Lee's home ERA as a nice combination to lay -200 or more.
In shame:
Best of luck to everyone today.
SJP
An interesting couple of days in MLB over the weekend to say the least. For the last couple of weeks, the majority of favorites (small and large) were winning. I saw many winning streak threads with a lot of favorites as plays. We discussed when this would change---pitchers tiring, summer heat, hitters tiring, lack of focus, etc.
It seems like this past weekend there was a shift. Aside from Sunday afternoon when many large favorites covered MLs and RLs, many "public" favorites took a dive with the best three examples being the Yankees dropping a day game to the Athletics on Saturday, the Rays dropping a short favorite (but heavy actioned) play to the Royals on Saturday night, and concluding with the -200 Texas Rangers falling to the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday night.
This is especially relevant with today's card on the horizon. There are A LOT of big favorites on the card. It would be simple to believe that parlaying one or more of these heavy favorites and reducing the odds would be the best plays. Could they be? Sure. Is that a wise strategy? No. Tread with caution. Many of these favorites could and will win, but parlaying the wrong combination or taking an unnecessary runline could be disastrous. If you need an example, think of the Phillies-Rangers parlay from Sunday that was burned by the Blue Jays.
The day game, in my opinion, will set the tone. I believe the Philadelphia Phillies will beat the San Diego Padres. From there on out, it's going to get a little sticky. Don't use the Phillies winning as a sign for the rest of the day. Be cautious.
I'm making my wager on the Phillies based on a profitable weekend. It's a strong play but very heavily vigged. I don't recommend doing this more than once or twice a season, if that. IMO, the short memory of bettors remembering they lost on the Rangers at -200 or more on Sunday night will scare them away from the Phillies in the morning. Could I be wrong? Sure. Could Harang out duel Lee? Sure. However, I'm going to go with the Phillies newly ignited offense and Lee's home ERA as a nice combination to lay -200 or more.
In shame:
| 34997610-1 | 7/24/2011 8:00 PM | Money Line | 1,000.00 | 434.78 | Baseball - 952 Philadelphia Phillies -230 for Game |
Best of luck to everyone today.
SJP
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