Blue Jays @ Red Sox (For Sat June 14 1:35PM EST Start)
Those of you that no me, no that I only post when I feel I have the goods. Today is the goods. Hopefully it will go easy like my pick of the month Last Sunday on the SF Giants,
Onto today....I am going to max bet the ML -110 Red Sox....BOX [Starter EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L)] For the Red Sox.
In his last 3 (only 3) Starts this year EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L) sports a 0.77 WHIP across his 3 starts and allowed only 8 hits, while compiling 21 SO's in just 20.2 innings of work.... only yielding 1 earned run in the span. Earning exactly 7 SO's per game
In his last 3 games his era is 0.44 getting 7 Ks in 7 innings with 2 walks and 1 HR. The Sox lost in his last game start at Baltimore, but it was no fault of his own as the Sox were shutout 1-0 in the game. Had the Sox got him a couple he would be 3-0 instead of 2-0.
I noticed the oddsmakers clearly like what they see in Rodrieguez, that respect was shown by installing him as an opening -140 favorite over a Toronto team that is 33-30 vs. a struggling Boston at 27-36. Always tough to favorite a team under .500 team over a team with a winningrecord by -140, when you know the public money will clearly be on Toronto on the mere the SU record disparity between the teams. You know that money will lean toward the obvious looking choice Toronto...
The way I break down this game...I don't look at it as Toronto 33-30 vs Boston 27-36 anyway....I look at as Toronto 13-18 away vs Boston 12-20 at home (basically a pick'em.)
It is the information in the two above paragraphs above that makeme think that the oddsmakers really like Rodriguez tomorrow, and 10 times out of 10 I will side with the books.
Now that the line is basically already bet from Boston -140 to basically a pick -110, I will also be getting down on way below value Red Sox on the ML,
Good Luck!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox (For Sat June 14 1:35PM EST Start)
Those of you that no me, no that I only post when I feel I have the goods. Today is the goods. Hopefully it will go easy like my pick of the month Last Sunday on the SF Giants,
Onto today....I am going to max bet the ML -110 Red Sox....BOX [Starter EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L)] For the Red Sox.
In his last 3 (only 3) Starts this year EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L) sports a 0.77 WHIP across his 3 starts and allowed only 8 hits, while compiling 21 SO's in just 20.2 innings of work.... only yielding 1 earned run in the span. Earning exactly 7 SO's per game
In his last 3 games his era is 0.44 getting 7 Ks in 7 innings with 2 walks and 1 HR. The Sox lost in his last game start at Baltimore, but it was no fault of his own as the Sox were shutout 1-0 in the game. Had the Sox got him a couple he would be 3-0 instead of 2-0.
I noticed the oddsmakers clearly like what they see in Rodrieguez, that respect was shown by installing him as an opening -140 favorite over a Toronto team that is 33-30 vs. a struggling Boston at 27-36. Always tough to favorite a team under .500 team over a team with a winningrecord by -140, when you know the public money will clearly be on Toronto on the mere the SU record disparity between the teams. You know that money will lean toward the obvious looking choice Toronto...
The way I break down this game...I don't look at it as Toronto 33-30 vs Boston 27-36 anyway....I look at as Toronto 13-18 away vs Boston 12-20 at home (basically a pick'em.)
It is the information in the two above paragraphs above that makeme think that the oddsmakers really like Rodriguez tomorrow, and 10 times out of 10 I will side with the books.
Now that the line is basically already bet from Boston -140 to basically a pick -110, I will also be getting down on way below value Red Sox on the ML,
THX BRO...I THINK THIS LINE MAY REVERSE OVERNIGHT AND THE PUBLIC WILL BUY UP TORONTO TO A -120 FAVORITE BY FIRST PITCH. IF I CAN CATCH +110 COMING BACK I WILL DOUBLE MY BET AND GO ALL JUCE FREE.IT MAY EVEN GO HIGHER ON TORONTO IF SANDOVAL CAN'T GO.
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Quote Originally Posted by bmiller1632:
GL
THX BRO...I THINK THIS LINE MAY REVERSE OVERNIGHT AND THE PUBLIC WILL BUY UP TORONTO TO A -120 FAVORITE BY FIRST PITCH. IF I CAN CATCH +110 COMING BACK I WILL DOUBLE MY BET AND GO ALL JUCE FREE.IT MAY EVEN GO HIGHER ON TORONTO IF SANDOVAL CAN'T GO.
THX BRO...I THINK THIS LINE MAY REVERSE OVERNIGHT AND THE PUBLIC WILL BUY UP TORONTO TO A -120 FAVORITE BY FIRST PITCH. IF I CAN CATCH +110 COMING BACK I WILL DOUBLE MY BET AND GO ALL JUCE FREE.IT MAY EVEN GO HIGHER ON TORONTO IF SANDOVAL CAN'T GO.
SANDOVAL OR NOT I AM HEAVILY ON BOSON EITHER WAY
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Quote Originally Posted by m15525:
THX BRO...I THINK THIS LINE MAY REVERSE OVERNIGHT AND THE PUBLIC WILL BUY UP TORONTO TO A -120 FAVORITE BY FIRST PITCH. IF I CAN CATCH +110 COMING BACK I WILL DOUBLE MY BET AND GO ALL JUCE FREE.IT MAY EVEN GO HIGHER ON TORONTO IF SANDOVAL CAN'T GO.
Game looks, on paper, like the Jays should be about a -125 favorite...But when the oddsmakers opened Boston -140...that spoke volumes about their confidence in Rodriguez. No doubt public won't be able to keep themselves off Rays...books will need BoSox bad.
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Game looks, on paper, like the Jays should be about a -125 favorite...But when the oddsmakers opened Boston -140...that spoke volumes about their confidence in Rodriguez. No doubt public won't be able to keep themselves off Rays...books will need BoSox bad.
Also...my two other plays tomorrow (each are 1/4 of my max bet.)So my max is a 4 unit play. These would be 1/4 of that. I rated the one game higher because there are more angles and situations that make my system predict a much higher % in this game, then in the two others.The two others are very strong plays, but Boston is the gem.
Here are the other 1 unit plays:
ASTROS:L. MCCULLERS-[BOX]& MARINERS:R.ELIAS-[BOX]
PLAY UNDER 8.0
TWINS: P.HUGHES-[BOX] & Rangers: N. Martinez-[Box]
PLAY UNDER 9.0
Good Luck
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Also...my two other plays tomorrow (each are 1/4 of my max bet.)So my max is a 4 unit play. These would be 1/4 of that. I rated the one game higher because there are more angles and situations that make my system predict a much higher % in this game, then in the two others.The two others are very strong plays, but Boston is the gem.
Here are the other 1 unit plays:
ASTROS:L. MCCULLERS-[BOX]& MARINERS:R.ELIAS-[BOX]
PLAY UNDER 8.0
TWINS: P.HUGHES-[BOX] & Rangers: N. Martinez-[Box]
Don't want to be one of those bashers........but vs an ave to poor team I agree with all the positive stats for Bost pitcher.........
but Toronto is an elite team and together with Red Sox poor defense, I do not want my money on this game...........
But you are convincing.
Personally my best pick are SF Giants.......Del la Rosa has allowed 24 Runs.......36 base runners........and 6 HR last 4 starts (21 Inn)....and his ERA is up to 5.84.
Also SF has swept 5 teams and only been swept 2.......while AZ has only one sweep and been swept 4.........so for DBacks to sweep SF is not likely.
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Don't want to be one of those bashers........but vs an ave to poor team I agree with all the positive stats for Bost pitcher.........
but Toronto is an elite team and together with Red Sox poor defense, I do not want my money on this game...........
But you are convincing.
Personally my best pick are SF Giants.......Del la Rosa has allowed 24 Runs.......36 base runners........and 6 HR last 4 starts (21 Inn)....and his ERA is up to 5.84.
Also SF has swept 5 teams and only been swept 2.......while AZ has only one sweep and been swept 4.........so for DBacks to sweep SF is not likely.
Also...my two other plays tomorrow (each are 1/4 of my max bet.)So my max is a 4 unit play. These would be 1/4 of that. I rated the one game higher because there are more angles and situations that make my system predict a much higher % in this game, then in the two others.The two others are very strong plays, but Boston is the gem.
Here are the other 1 unit plays:
ASTROS:L. MCCULLERS-[BOX]& MARINERS:R.ELIAS-[BOX]
PLAY UNDER 8.0
TWINS: P.HUGHES-[BOX] & Rangers: N. Martinez-[Box]
PLAY UNDER 9.0
Good Luck
Agree with M's/Astros under for sure........both pitchers have great ERA in day games and Home/Away as well..........also logical......both teams beat up each other.......now it's time for cease fire on a Sunday afternoon.
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Quote Originally Posted by m15525:
Also...my two other plays tomorrow (each are 1/4 of my max bet.)So my max is a 4 unit play. These would be 1/4 of that. I rated the one game higher because there are more angles and situations that make my system predict a much higher % in this game, then in the two others.The two others are very strong plays, but Boston is the gem.
Here are the other 1 unit plays:
ASTROS:L. MCCULLERS-[BOX]& MARINERS:R.ELIAS-[BOX]
PLAY UNDER 8.0
TWINS: P.HUGHES-[BOX] & Rangers: N. Martinez-[Box]
PLAY UNDER 9.0
Good Luck
Agree with M's/Astros under for sure........both pitchers have great ERA in day games and Home/Away as well..........also logical......both teams beat up each other.......now it's time for cease fire on a Sunday afternoon.
yes opening a strong rookie with so much chalk vs a potent offense is a tell. not sure the Sox can make a win happen though the way they been playing recent. definitely trappy but will the trap spring?
GL i may end up on it with you.
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yes opening a strong rookie with so much chalk vs a potent offense is a tell. not sure the Sox can make a win happen though the way they been playing recent. definitely trappy but will the trap spring?
" but Toronto is an elite team and together with Red Sox poor defense, I do not want my money on this game..........." [/Quote]
You just argued my point for me....
How is it possible, with what you said above....that Red Sox could possibly win this game today. Yet, Directly in the face of all your points (which are valid) the oddsmakers made the Sox a pretty steep -140. Just looking at this game, they way you broke it down above....I would think that Toronto would be the team favorite -140.
Thats where my handicapper mentality kicks in and says...."This game should have Toronto favored or at Pick....but for some reason the oddsmakers went off the deep end making Boston -140. There is absolutely no logical reason Boston should have opened at -140...
which leads me to me conclusion....the Oddsmakers do not see Rodrigues as a flash in the pan, but the contrary, an up and coming pitcher who is going to mow down Blue Jay hitters all day tomorrow.
I'll keep talking to you, in good fun, but tell me this first.....
How could the oddsmakers have made the Sox -140 tomorrow against a team that to date has been far better o offensive and defensive..a team that is on a semi-hot streak? The whole world knows the Red Sox are worse then Tampa on any given day....so how is it possible Boston gets put to float at 7/5?
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[Quote:
" but Toronto is an elite team and together with Red Sox poor defense, I do not want my money on this game..........." [/Quote]
You just argued my point for me....
How is it possible, with what you said above....that Red Sox could possibly win this game today. Yet, Directly in the face of all your points (which are valid) the oddsmakers made the Sox a pretty steep -140. Just looking at this game, they way you broke it down above....I would think that Toronto would be the team favorite -140.
Thats where my handicapper mentality kicks in and says...."This game should have Toronto favored or at Pick....but for some reason the oddsmakers went off the deep end making Boston -140. There is absolutely no logical reason Boston should have opened at -140...
which leads me to me conclusion....the Oddsmakers do not see Rodrigues as a flash in the pan, but the contrary, an up and coming pitcher who is going to mow down Blue Jay hitters all day tomorrow.
I'll keep talking to you, in good fun, but tell me this first.....
How could the oddsmakers have made the Sox -140 tomorrow against a team that to date has been far better o offensive and defensive..a team that is on a semi-hot streak? The whole world knows the Red Sox are worse then Tampa on any given day....so how is it possible Boston gets put to float at 7/5?
yes opening a strong rookie with so much chalk vs a potent offense is a tell. not sure the Sox can make a win happen though the way they been playing recent. definitely trappy but will the trap spring?
GL i may end up on it with you.
My point being this is not a trap. It is just set up for public casual fans who have no idea what Rodriguez can do yet....he has only pitched in Balt, MIN & TEX (aka baseball markets off the radar) so if he pitches well today against a big franchise like Toronto in the Boston baseball market. He will be validated as good, no longer just a promising call-up...so my point is that oddsmakers set the ML at -140.... which means what they saw already in Rodriguez (in his last 3 games....has already qualified him as a beast the should be favored by -140. Scary thing is...if Red Sox were playing well now...the line on this game could have been -150 to -170 range.
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Quote Originally Posted by joshfactor:
yes opening a strong rookie with so much chalk vs a potent offense is a tell. not sure the Sox can make a win happen though the way they been playing recent. definitely trappy but will the trap spring?
GL i may end up on it with you.
My point being this is not a trap. It is just set up for public casual fans who have no idea what Rodriguez can do yet....he has only pitched in Balt, MIN & TEX (aka baseball markets off the radar) so if he pitches well today against a big franchise like Toronto in the Boston baseball market. He will be validated as good, no longer just a promising call-up...so my point is that oddsmakers set the ML at -140.... which means what they saw already in Rodriguez (in his last 3 games....has already qualified him as a beast the should be favored by -140. Scary thing is...if Red Sox were playing well now...the line on this game could have been -150 to -170 range.
Love it when you post brother you need to start doing so more often. With you on the Sawx, anything else you like today?
Also...my two other plays tomorrow (each are 1/4 of my max bet.)So my max is a 4 unit play. These would be 1/4 of that. I rated the one game higher because there are more angles and situations that make my system predict a much higher % in this game, then in the two others.The two others are very strong plays, but Boston is the gem.
Here are the other 1 unit plays (two aditionals:)
ASTROS:L. MCCULLERS-[BOX]& MARINERS:R.ELIAS-[BOX]
PLAY UNDER 8.0
TWINS: P.HUGHES-[BOX] & RANGERS: N. MARTINEZ-[BOX]
PLAY UNDER 9.0
GOOD LUCK
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Quote Originally Posted by Theone324:
Love it when you post brother you need to start doing so more often. With you on the Sawx, anything else you like today?
Also...my two other plays tomorrow (each are 1/4 of my max bet.)So my max is a 4 unit play. These would be 1/4 of that. I rated the one game higher because there are more angles and situations that make my system predict a much higher % in this game, then in the two others.The two others are very strong plays, but Boston is the gem.
Here are the other 1 unit plays (two aditionals:)
ASTROS:L. MCCULLERS-[BOX]& MARINERS:R.ELIAS-[BOX]
PLAY UNDER 8.0
TWINS: P.HUGHES-[BOX] & RANGERS: N. MARTINEZ-[BOX]
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