Posted:
#51
Angle are still playing Utah Game 2 .
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THE CHASE LOUNGE
Posted:
#55
Quote Originally Posted by bikemcr:
Angle are still playing Utah Game 2 .
Angle are still playing Utah Game 2 .
I found out today that Utah was a "fade Miami" chase, so GM2 will be Tuesday OKC vs Miami.
I also found out that Mem was a "fade Houston" play, so GM2 will be CHI vs. Houston.
I will post official lines ASAP Tuesday morning or as soon as I know.
awdammadix, I'm beginning to think the Bills have packed it in already this year. A touchdown would be nice, they are making Miami look really good.
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Posted:
#56
Quote Originally Posted by Angle4U999:
I found out today that Utah was a "fade Miami" chase, so GM2 will be Tuesday OKC vs Miami.
I also found out that Mem was a "fade Houston" play, so GM2 will be CHI vs. Houston.
I will post official lines ASAP Tuesday morning or as soon as I know.
awdammadix, I'm beginning to think the Bills have packed it in already this year. A touchdown would be nice, they are making Miami look really good.
I found out today that Utah was a "fade Miami" chase, so GM2 will be Tuesday OKC vs Miami.
I also found out that Mem was a "fade Houston" play, so GM2 will be CHI vs. Houston.
I will post official lines ASAP Tuesday morning or as soon as I know.
awdammadix, I'm beginning to think the Bills have packed it in already this year. A touchdown would be nice, they are making Miami look really good.
no kidding. how saddening that the perfect record of miami favorites trends fall against me twice in a row.
hopefully the score sits here as I have bills +16.5 in my teaser.
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Posted:
#57
If Saints win, the Cryfest will begin! I'll take a couple of shots Yukon Jack and enjoy the afternoon.
Of course Bears -6 would be nice as my largest play.
Late game degenerate 6pt 4team teaser pays 3-1.NYG +3, CLE +17, CHI -1, SEA +3
No NCAA hoops for me. Only NBA play is LAC -6 vs PHX GM1 of 3.
1% or 1 unit chase play.
Saints starting to burn the cryboys, making it look easy. Will check in later.
Of course Bears -6 would be nice as my largest play.
Late game degenerate 6pt 4team teaser pays 3-1.NYG +3, CLE +17, CHI -1, SEA +3
No NCAA hoops for me. Only NBA play is LAC -6 vs PHX GM1 of 3.
1% or 1 unit chase play.
Saints starting to burn the cryboys, making it look easy. Will check in later.
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Posted:
#65
Quote Originally Posted by awdamaddix:
no kidding. how saddening that the perfect record of miami favorites trends fall against me twice in a row.
hopefully the score sits here as I have bills +16.5 in my teaser.
Congrats on hitting Buffalo in your teaser! They ruined a 4 teamer for me at +11. That is two weeks Mia covers as favorite against the trend. Maybe the world has come to an end!
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Posted:
#66
Angle, I'm fading the teams where their last game was in OT. I don't chase the teams, just the system. And very small to begin with, Next fade is GS and the Lakers.
I did real well fading the bucks last night as posted here. Really cleaned up on the 2 nd half as odds makers thought they would come back.
I believe there is a Boston fade AND Laker fade on Christmas day.
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Posted:
#67
Quote Originally Posted by Angle4U999:
Buffalo +4½ to 5,
New York Giants -2½ and
Tampa Bay -2.5 to 3 (contradiction to St Louis)
NFL Week 16 Trends & Angles (angles s*cked last week!)
In a season that has flown by, we have already reached Week 16 of the NFL season. This week, we are carrying over three NFL Trends & Angles that collectively went a nice 3-1 ATS in Week 15.
As those of you that have followed us in the past know, the vast majority of our angles will point you to live underdogs and live ‘unders’ when we have total angles. All of our season-long trends go back to 2005, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.
Here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 16, with all records being for the last seven seasons since 2005 plus the first 15 weeks of this season.
Angle #1 - During the month of December only, play against any favorite coming off of two or more losses (53-31-2, 63.1% ATS): There
are two reasons why this angle has worked so well. For teams that are
still fighting for playoff spots, lines get artificially inflated for
that reason alone even though they are not playing well lately. For
teams eliminated from the playoff hunt, they are usually playing fellow
non-playoff contenders if they are favored after two losses and those
types of meaningless games are generally crapshoots with the underdogs
having inherent value. Qualifiers: Arizona +7 to 7.5 vs. Chicago, Cincinnati
+3½ to 4
and St. Louis +3.5 to 4.
Angle #2 - During the month of December only, play on any road underdog
that was an underdog in each of the last two games (72-42-1, 63.2% ATS):
Bettors generally tend to stay away from teams that are often underdogs
at any time of year, but that becomes even more pronounced in December
when these constant dogs are either playing playoff contenders or are
underdogs to non-playoff contenders, which is an indication of how
poorly perceived the teams are. Thus, books are able to pad these lines
and still get public money on the favorites. Qualifiers: Minnesota +8
and Tennessee +13 to 14.
Buffalo +4½ to 5,
New York Giants -2½ and
Tampa Bay -2.5 to 3 (contradiction to St Louis)Angle #4 - Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (171-112-5, 60.4% ATS):
It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great
fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to
adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road
game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have
over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs taking
on conference foes that they are quite familiar with.. This angle lost
its only play in Week 15. Qualifier: Cincinnati +3½ to 4. (Double Angle)
Angle #5 - Bet against any home team coming off of five or more straight up wins (62-43-3, 59.0% ATS):
Very few angles epitomize our contrarian mindset as well as this one
does! Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the
oddsmakers know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams
that are becoming overvalued. Yes, fading these teams may take some
courage at times, but check out the winning percentage of this angle
over a nice-sized sampling. This angle won its only play in Week 15 with
the 49ers over the Patriots. Qualifier: Cleveland + 12 to 14 vs Denver.
My biggest play, Bears -5 (closing line buy down 1 point official line). This same final game chase matches my "hold your nose" play on Dallas vs Cincy which was a final game chase play. Minimum 2 unit play, or recover loss from last week if you tailed me on the Bears plus 1 unit profit.
Saints +3 to +3.5 or 4 if reasonable. I think Dallas will choke now that the pressure had been dialed up to max! All Dallas media is telling them they are good. Time for a wake-up call vs. Drew Brees! One unit Cryboy fade play...
I've got Sea under 41 as I said. GL everyone!
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Posted:
#68
Quote Originally Posted by Moth61:
Angle, I'm fading the teams where their last game was in OT. I don't chase the teams, just the system. And very small to begin with, Next fade is GS and the Lakers.
I did real well fading the bucks last night as posted here. Really cleaned up on the 2 nd half as odds makers thought they would come back.
I believe there is a Boston fade AND Laker fade on Christmas day.
Sounds like a good system. Thanks for the info. I have questions. It sounds like you are fading both teams from the same OT game in their next game, such as Lakers and GS, Boston and Milw.
What do you do if you have more than one fade playing on the same day and play close to the same time which prevents a chase? Do you know how this system has worked as a straight one game fade of both teams in their next game and then stop?
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Posted:
#70
Quote Originally Posted by Angle4U999:
Nice call Rain Fan!
Wish I would have taken this at +160 in my book instead of the under. Oh well, at least the under isn't over yet, buy my teaser looks good at +4.
Nice call Rain Fan!
Wish I would have taken this at +160 in my book instead of the under. Oh well, at least the under isn't over yet, buy my teaser looks good at +4.
thanks!
and thank you for the bears play!
I took the over 1h 20.5 too woo boy! cowherd played hawks, wish I was brave enough to take it. Im hunching over 2h but im golden today.
Like shady says, no double dip!
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Posted:
#73
Quote Originally Posted by Angle4U999:
Nice job awadammadix, Shady's advice is always gold!
Clippers came through! Record now 30-3 with 17 in a row.
Moth, 2 big bang 25 pt. beatdowns today! Your schedule is booked solid!
Nice job awadammadix, Shady's advice is always gold!
Clippers came through! Record now 30-3 with 17 in a row.
Moth, 2 big bang 25 pt. beatdowns today! Your schedule is booked solid!
Yes, I have no time to update the SS, but going to try today.
On OT, if 2 teams playing the same day, then I don't chase until the next day. So like fading Boston and Lakers, I'll play small like $22.00 each.
If both win then fade GS the next day at $22.00. If one loses maybe $33.00, if both lose $44. No real strict rules here. But I did like the Bucks fade because they played the next night.
Yesterday I did pretty well with a basic system that might also work next week. Play the NFL team that has the best ATS record.
Green Bay ATS was 8 - 6, Tenn was 5 - 9. Teased most of the games, wished I parlayed them instead bec. they won outright.
Merry Christmas and BOL to all!
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Posted:
#74
A couple of things I'm looking into. What was the net beatdown considering the pointspread. If the Clippers were 6 point favorites and won by 26, is that really a beatdown?
Also, what happens when the same two beatdown teams meet again?
Also, filtering out losers, which will take some time because I have to go back and see what their records were when they played.
So far I have the following for Christmas Day, someone please correct me if I'm wrong.
Brooklyn ( Boston OT fade but on 12/21/12 - lots of rest) and Under
New York (Laker OT fade on 12/23/12) and Under
Chicago (Houston beatdown fade on 12/22/12) and Over
Denver (Clipper beatdown fade on 12/23/12) and Over
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