no kidding. how saddening that the perfect record of miami favorites trends fall against me twice in a row.

hopefully the score sits here as I have bills +16.5 in my teaser.

NFL Week 16 Trends & Angles (angles s*cked last week!)

In a season that has flown by, we have already reached Week 16 of the NFL season. This week, we are carrying over three NFL Trends & Angles that collectively went a nice 3-1 ATS in Week 15.

As those of you that have followed us in the past know, the vast majority of our angles will point you to live underdogs and live ‘unders’ when we have total angles. All of our season-long trends go back to 2005, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 16, with all records being for the last seven seasons since 2005 plus the first 15 weeks of this season.

Angle #1 - During the month of December only, play against any favorite coming off of two or more losses (53-31-2, 63.1% ATS): There are two reasons why this angle has worked so well. For teams that are still fighting for playoff spots, lines get artificially inflated for that reason alone even though they are not playing well lately. For teams eliminated from the playoff hunt, they are usually playing fellow non-playoff contenders if they are favored after two losses and those types of meaningless games are generally crapshoots with the underdogs having inherent value. Qualifiers: Arizona +7 to 7.5 vs. Chicago, Cincinnati +3½ to 4 and St. Louis +3.5 to 4.

Angle #2 - During the month of December only, play on any road underdog that was an underdog in each of the last two games (72-42-1, 63.2% ATS): Bettors generally tend to stay away from teams that are often underdogs at any time of year, but that becomes even more pronounced in December when these constant dogs are either playing playoff contenders or are underdogs to non-playoff contenders, which is an indication of how poorly perceived the teams are. Thus, books are able to pad these lines and still get public money on the favorites. Qualifiers: Minnesota +8 and Tennessee +13 to 14.

Buffalo +4½ to 5,  New York Giants -2½ and Tampa Bay -2.5 to 3

Angle #4 - Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (171-112-5, 60.4% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs taking on conference foes that they are quite familiar with.. This angle lost its only play in Week 15. Qualifier: Cincinnati +3½ to 4. (Double Angle)

Angle #5 - Bet against any home team coming off of five or more straight up wins (62-43-3, 59.0% ATS): Very few angles epitomize our contrarian mindset as well as this one does! Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the oddsmakers know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams that are becoming overvalued. Yes, fading these teams may take some courage at times, but check out the winning percentage of this angle over a nice-sized sampling. This angle won its only play in Week 15 with the 49ers over the Patriots. Qualifier: Cleveland + 12 to 14 vs Denver.

My biggest play, Bears -5 (closing line buy down 1 point official line). This same final game chase matches my "hold your nose" play on Dallas vs Cincy which was a final game chase play. Minimum 2 unit play, or recover loss from last week if you tailed me on the Bears plus 1 unit profit.

Saints +3 to +3.5 or 4 if reasonable. I think Dallas will choke now that the pressure had been dialed up to max! All Dallas media is telling them they are good. Time for a wake-up call vs. Drew Brees! One unit Cryboy fade play...

Angle, I'm fading the teams where their last game was in OT. I don't chase the teams, just the system. And very small to begin with, Next fade is GS and the Lakers.

I did real well fading the bucks last night as posted here. Really cleaned up on the 2 nd half as odds makers thought they would come back.

I believe there is a Boston fade AND Laker fade on Christmas day.

sprinkling some on def/special teams score for seattle

I'm a fan of rain